Champions League / Mike Norman / 04 November 2008 / Leave a comment

"Mystical" Mike Norman doesn't need even to consult his famous crystal ball for this one: the stats speak for themselves and all point towards a win for in-form, high-scoring, tight-at-the-back Chelsea...

Chelsea's impeccable away form, allied with Roma's dreadful recent run, makes this game an easy one to call. Whether the game goes to form is a different matter all together, but anyone opposing Chelsea is a braver person than me.

The Match Odds market has Roma available to back at [4.1], Chelsea at [2.18] and The Draw at [3.3] - if you are interested, the lay price on Chelsea is [2.2].

For the record, Phil Scolari's men have played six games away from Stamford Bridge in domestic competitions this season, winning all six, scoring 18 goals and conceding just the one. Roma on the other hand have lost their last four Serie A games, conceding ten and scoring just one. Luciano Spalletti's men have also lost two of their opening three Champions League fixtures, including an embarrassing home defeat to lowly ranked CFR Cluj.

If you're looking for a snippet of hope to oppose Chelsea then I can point you towards their only failure to not win away from home this season was in fact in this competition (away to Cluj) - but that's about all I can offer you.... and perhaps that Roma are not as bad as their current form suggests.

Take advantage of Roma's frail confidence is my advice and back Chelsea to win. Since the first day of October the Italian club has failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their six games, and has only managed to go in at half time without conceding on the one occasion. In the same time, Chelsea have kept six clean sheets and scored early in the majority of their games. Backing Chelsea/Chelsea ([3.85]) in the Half time/Full time market is another bet I have confidence in recommending.

If you're thinking that (like the game two weeks ago) Roma might hold out until at least half time you can back Draw/Chelsea at [5.9] or Draw/Draw at [5.2].

Chelsea have Ashley Cole missing with a calf problem, but England international Wayne Bridge will deputise. Ricardo Carvalho is also missing, so Brazilian international Alex will replace him. Michael Ballack and Michael Essien are still on the injured list, so international stars Deco and Joe Cole are likely starters - I think you get my point!

Roma have a major question mark over the fitness of captain Francesco Totti. He limped out of Friday's training session with a recurring knee injury and his participation is certainly in the balance.

In the Correct Score market the favourite is the 1-1 draw at [7.2], with 1-0 to Chelsea ([7.6]) and 0-0 ([9.4]) coming next in the market. My own selection was going to be 2-0 to the away team at [11.5] until I saw odds of [15.5] for Any Unquoted score. It's unlikely that either team will score at least four, but at least if Chelsea net early you can rest assured they have the ability to go and score plenty more, not to mention the fact that you will be able to lay off this bet at a considerably shorter price should you choose to get involved in-running.

In the Over/Under 2.5 Goals market you can get matched at [1.73] for Under or at [2.36] for Over. This is a market I have no interest in playing for this game so will leave the decision completely up to you. Good luck.