Champions League Betting: Porto v Arsenal - Both teams have bigger fish to fry

Champions League / Mike Norman / 09 December 2008 / Leave a comment

They're both through to the knockout stages, have big league matches at the weekend and we're all in the dark regarding who is in the squad. Good thing "Mystical" Mike Norman is around to talk us through the betting as Arsenal travel to Portugal.

A dead rubber game, both teams not playing to their full potential domestically, no team news at the time of writing, important league games to come - this game is easy to call.....

The Match Odds market has Porto available to back at [2.56], Arsenal at [3.1] and The Draw at [3.35].

Arsenal are two points ahead of Porto in Group G, both teams have already qualified for the knock-out stages of the Champions League, and the only thing that remains to be settled is who finishes top and who finishes as runners-up. Porto have to win to overtake the Gunners, any other result means Arsene Wenger's men will win the group.

Ok, so the game isn't a complete dead rubber then, but I honestly believe that it makes little difference whether you top your group or whether you finish as runners-up, such is the quality of teams that will be in the last 16. You only have to look at Villarreal v Man Utd recently to see how much finishing top meant to those two teams. A win on the night for either team would have meant they won the group, but they both played with little conviction and played out a 0-0 draw, as I predicted they would.

So will Wenger and Jesualdo Ferreira be content with a draw? I think so - so much so in fact that I think Draw/Draw has to be the call at [5.2] in the Half Time/Full Time market. I really can't see Arsenal winning so Porto/Porto ([4.8]) and Draw/Porto ([6.6]) are the other outcomes worth considering.

The reason I don't see Arsenal winning is because I think Wenger will have his sights very much on the Saturday lunch-time game at Middlesbrough (a place where they don't have a great record down the years) and his team selection and approach will reflect this. Arsenal can ill-afford to lose at the Riverside and fall further behind in the Premiership title race.

The same could be said about Porto however. They are in fourth in their league and have a crucial game against the sixth placed team at the weekend. The one advantage for Porto though is that both their next two games are at home and if there is to be a winner on Wednesday night then I can see them just edging it.

For a Correct Score I'd seriously consider 0-0 at [9.8], 1-0 at [8.6] or 1-1 at [7.2], which also means that I am heavily in the camp of Under 2.5 Goals, though the odds of just [1.75] are a bit skinny for my liking. Under 1.5 Goals is available to back at [3.2] and makes more appeal.

With a low-tempo and low-scoring game being on the cards, I was surprised to see a Porto Clean Sheet and an Arsenal Clean Sheet available to back at [3.15] and [3.55] respectively. At these prices, the combined odds of both teams to record a clean sheet is approximately [11.2], yet the 0-0 Correct Score is available at just [9.8]. Value in the Clean Sheets markets or no value about the 0-0? I like the look of the clean sheets in all honesty.

As I mentioned at the outset, with no team news available and no First Goalscorer market up yet it's difficult to suggest anything. For information purposes, expect to see Lisandro Lopez around the [8.0] mark, Emanuel Adebayor and Robin van Persie somewhere near [9.0] and the brilliantly named Hulk at [11.0] - if only I could get a price about his shirt being ripped at some stage!