Champions League Betting: Manchester United v Arsenal

Champions League / Feizal Rahman / 28 April 2009 / Leave a Comment

United have the European pedigree but Arsene Wenger's side are in a confident, bullish mood ahead of Wednesday night's Champions League semi-final first leg at Old Trafford. So where is Feizal Rahman putting his money? Best Bet: Back Under 2.5 goals @ [1.76]

After Chelsea and Liverpool treated us to 12 goals in their epic quarter-final, fate will probably see to it that Arsenal and Manchester United serve up a semi final borefest. There have been plenty of memorable - and controversial - clashes between the two finest attacking sides in the Premier League but with a Champions League final awaiting the winner, never have the stakes been so high.

At [1.63] to qualify, the current European champions possess a tremendous home record in this competition and are unbeaten home and away in almost two years. In the last 10 seasons, United have won 45 of 59 Champions League games at Old Trafford, losing only three. Since a 1-0 defeat to AC Milan in 2005, they have remained invincible, winning 15 games out of 20 and seven of their last 10 knockout stage fixtures in Manchester.

This will be the Red Devil's third successive semi-final appearance and their sixth in total. They prevailed in their two most recent semi final home legs - Barcelona last season and AC Milan the year before - but were only able to draw the two before those (against Bayer Leverkusen in 2001/02 and Juventus in 1998/99) and lost their very first (to Borussia Dortmund in 1996/97).

In their previous 10 home games against Arsenal, United have won six and lost three. Presently [2.56] to progress, the Gunners have reached a Champions League semi-final only once previously. In the knockout stages of the competition, they have won only three of the last 10 on their travels, held to a draw four times. However, two of their most famous Champions League results have indeed been away to European giants - a 1-0 victory over Real Madrid at the Bernabeu in 2006 and winning 2-0 last season against AC Milan at the San Siro.

Against their top of the table Premier League rivals rivals this season, Arsenal remain unbeaten in league competition, though they did succumb to a rejuvenated Chelsea in their FA Cup semi- final at Wembley 10 days ago. The Gunners were once again undone by the physical dominance of Didier Drogba, though they will now face a far more sophisticated attack from United.

In recent weeks, Sir Alex Ferguson's men have shown a vulnerability when pressed, conceding 10 goals in their last six home fixtures. Averaging 2.6 goals per game in their last 10, Arsenal are in bullish mood and there has been a confident vibe emanating from manager Arsene Wenger and his players.

Under the Frenchman, Arsenal have taken the lead at Old Trafford seven times but have surrendered their advantage on three occasions and have only once scored two goals. They can be backed to score the first goal at around [3.0] and at [5.2] in the match odds (Man Utd [1.86], the Draw [3.8]), they may be worth backing with a view to laying off should they do so.

Emmanuel Adebayor is expected to start as the lone striker for the visitors, ahead of a five-man midfield. The Togolese has found the net twice in his last two league appearances at Old Trafford and, with five Champions League goals so far this season, can be backed to open the scoring at around [10.0]. Andrei Arshavin is ineligible to play so Samir Nasri should start. The Frenchman scored twice in the league win over United back in November and is [17.0] to break the deadlock here.

Nineteen-year-old Kieran Gibbs will deputise for the injured Gael Clichy at left-back and face the task of keeping Cristiano Ronaldo quiet. Johan Djourou should be fit enough to replace Mikael Silvestre and, with goalkeeper Manuel Almunia and right-back Bacary Sagna also back in contention, the Arsenal defence will have a more familiar look to it.

Between them, Wayne Rooney and Cristiano Ronaldo have scored 20 goals in United's last 20 games and both are predictably short priced to add to their European tally, at around [2.8]. With only Gary Neville out, Sir Alex Ferguson has a full quota of players to pick from but may choose to save his experienced charges, including PFA Player of The Year, Ryan Giggs, for the away leg.

Eight of the last 10 encounters between the two sides at Old Trafford has seen less than three goals scored. With the first leg of any Champions League semi-final likely to be cagey, Under 2.5 goals can be backed at [1.76], with the 1-1 correct score also appealing at [8.4].