Champions League Betting: Manchester United v AC Milan

Champions League / Dave Farrar / 09 March 2010 / Leave a Comment

Marco Boriello can get on the scoresheet against Man Utd on Wednesday night

"United are a good football side, but not a great one, and they have thrown in some shocking performances this season. If they aren’t at their best on Wednesday, then they could be caught cold, particularly given that Marco Borriello will be back to lead the line for Milan."

AC Milan have a mountain to climb in the second leg after their 2-3 reversal at the San Siro and despite the fact that Leonardo's side are likely to crash out at this stage, they are over-priced to win on the night, says Dave Farrar.

We're left with an interesting conundrum ahead of Manchester United's attempt to seal their quarter final place against Milan. By far and away the likeliest outcome on Wednesday evening is that United will end up qualifying, but they are unbackable to do so at[1.09], so we have to ask ourselves where the value may lie.

Milan's second goal at the San Siro made a big difference to this game. If the task facing Leonardo's side had been a three goal win, then you'd have felt that the Rossoneri would have pretty much given up the ghost, but now they know that a 2-0 scoreline would take them through, Milan's very experienced squad can see light at the end of the tunnel. Win 2-0, and they are through, and remember that they know a thing or two about Champions League turnarounds, having been on the wrong end of one a few seasons ago against Deportivo La Coruna.

Milan won't be at all phased by Old Trafford. They have already won in the Bernabeu this year, and on Saturday night they tried to squeeze the life out of Roma and hit them on the break. They accomplished the first part, but not quite the second, and that will be their gameplan again on Wednesday. I thought that over 2.5 goals were overpriced for the first leg, but given the fact that United don't have to win, and that Milan will not want an open game, I think that [1.96] is about right for this second leg, and I'm far more interested in the Match Odds market.

United are a good football side, but not a great one, and they have thrown in some shocking performances this season. If they aren't at their best on Wednesday, then they could be caught cold, particularly given that Marco Borriello will be back to lead the line for Milan. They're a far better team with him in it, and he is likely to take any chance that comes his way. The benefit we have from backing Milan to win the game, but not necessarily to qualify, is that, if they are leading by a goal late on, United won't have to score to make it through. And I like the idea of sitting on a Match Odds bet, albeit one which requires a leap of faith, which is based on at outcome with which both teams will be happy. I think that United will be tentative, that Milan are good enough to expose that, and that the Rossoneri have every chance of winning the game at a decent price, without necessarily going through.

BEST BET:

MILAN to beat MANCHESTER UNITED @ [5.3]

MARCO BORRIELLO to Score at any time @ [4.0]