Champions League / James Eastham / 03 November 2009 / Leave a comment

It's almost all-or-nothing time for Liverpool - but they won't get the win they're looking for at Stade de Gerland, says James Eastham. Best bet: Both teams to score @ [1.76].

Recommended bets: Lyon v Liverpool draw @ 3.5; both teams to score @ 1.76; Miralem Pjanic and Ederson to score anytime at 6.0 and 4.5 respectively (split your stakes).

Did Lyon win the first meeting between these sides - or did Liverpool lose it? Apparently most observers on the UK side of the channel feel that the absence of Fernando Torres, the departure of Steven Gerrard after 25 minutes and shoddy defending in the final 20 minutes handed the French side a 2-1 victory on a plate.

They may have a point, but even so I feel Lyon would be good enough to get a point at the very least against a full-strength Liverpool at Stade de Gerland. Given that Gerrard is out, the home side's favouritism is fully justified. Lyon are [2.4], Liverpool [3.3] and the draw [3.5].

Lyon are a tempting bet, but I hesitate for two reasons: firstly, they don't need to win and, secondly, we've seen Liverpool thrive in these kinds of situations before. Remember Olympiakos? Can Rafa Benitez, the great European plotter, really guide Liverpool to the brink of elimination with two games to go?

The draw is the value pick at [3.5], although I'd be surprised if the game finished 0-0 [10.5]. Lyon manager Claude Puel rebuilt the side with such a sharp attacking edge over the summer that Liverpool's shaky defence will struggle to hold out against the likes of Bafetimbi Gomis, Lisandro Lopez and Michel Bastos for 90 minutes.

Any of the aforementioned trio would be worth considering in the anytime goalscorer market at prices between [3.0] and [4.5] but we saw the depth of quality in Lyon's squad when defensive midfielder Max Gonalons and Argentina attacking midfielder Cesar Delgado scored after coming off the bench in the first game, so there are plenty of longer-priced alternatives worth an interest.

We backed Miralem Pjanic in the first game, and I still like him at [6.0], but I'm going to split my stakes to involve Ederson ([4.5]). The Brazilian playmaker has spent most of the season in the shadows but is a graceful playmaker who scored against Nice a fortnight ago and will be dangerous if he gets on.