Champions League Betting: Arsenal v Porto

Champions League / Tobias Gourlay / 08 March 2010 / Leave a Comment

Hulk Smash: Arsenal are angry after the first leg; but it's Porto who are dangerous.

Recommended Bet: Back Porto +0.5 on the Asian Handicap at [2.4] v Arsenal

Tobias Gourlay is happy to stick with Porto ahead of their second leg with Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium.

Two weeks ago, a couple of mistakes by Arsenal's reserve goalkeeper, Lukasz Fabianski, helped Porto to a 2-1 win in Portugal. The result has helped bring the Portuguese champions' To Qualify price in from [3.0] at the kick-off of that match to [2.26] ahead of the second leg at the Emirates Stadium on Tuesday evening. Backing Porto To Qualify at [3.0] was suggested in these parts and you can now lay them off for guaranteed profit if you feel this is as good as it gets for Jesualdo Ferreira's team.

Need you be so cautious though? Historical precedents for this match have been investigated elsewhere on the website and suggest the value still lies with Porto. For Arsene Wenger's Arsenal themselves, qualification from this position would be unprecedented: in their 10 successive seasons in the knockout stages of the Champions League, the Gunners have needed to come back from a first-leg away defeat on three occasions; on each occasion they've failed to qualify for the next round. On this fourth occasion, Wenger must do without Cesc Fabregas, who injured his hamstring in Saturday's Premier League win over Burnley. Manuel Almunia is around to replace hapless Fabianski, but William Gallas is still unavailable.

Porto are comfortably third in the Portuguese Liga, eight points away from anybody else, and Ferreira felt able to rest some of his important players at the weekend. The Champions League has his full attention, but it probably does not have Wenger's. Arsenal have lost some big games already this season, including defeats in home league fixtures with Manchester United and Chelsea, but remain in contention for the Premier League title because they have consistently beaten easier opposition. Wenger decided about Fabregas on Monday, 'We cannot take a gamble.' He probably would have taken a gamble if he did not retain hopes of domestic success.

Around this time last year Ferreira oversaw an impressive 2-2 draw at Old Trafford. Because Porto have still not won on English soil - this is their 14th attempt - the draw ([3.9]) is perhaps the most appealing option in the Match Outcome market, but this column will cover a couple of eventualities by giving the visitors half a goal in the Asian Handicap market.