Champions League Betting: Arsenal v Man Utd

Champions League / Feizal Rahman / 04 May 2009 / Leave a Comment

It was only the heroics of Manuel Almunia in the first leg that have even kept Arsenal in this tie but they will have to bring their A-game to the table on home soil if they are to win this one, says Feizal Rahman. Best bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.2].

But for heroics from goalkeeper Manuel Almunia and the aid of the woodwork, Arsenal could have been subject to a rout in the first leg of this tie at Old Trafford. The largely inexperienced line-up appeared overwhelmed at the home of the current European champions and were fortunate to escape with only a 1-0 deficit.

Yet, manager Arsene Wenger continues to defend the fighting spirit of his players and has expressed confidence that his side can turn this tie around. The aim is clear: to win by at least two clear goals. The last time Arsenal were given such a monumental undertaking was twenty years ago to the month when a climactic 2-0 away win at Liverpool secured the title.

The markets suggest a repeat of that famous victory are unlikely with Manchester United [1.3] and Arsenal [4.2] to qualify. However, the match odds barely splits the pair with the visitors slight favourites at [2.76] to win, with the home side [2.84] and the draw [3.4].

Arsenal's recent home form has been formidable, winning the last six in all competitions, scoring 15 and conceding only once. Since a 2-0 upset against Aston Villa back in November, the Gunners are unbeaten in seventeen games at the Emirates. In 13 contests since the turn of the year, the often derided Arsenal defence has been breached only twice - both times in the FA Cup - and over the course of the season has shipped more than one goal on only three occasions.

In winning four out of five Champions League games at the Emirates this season, Arsenal have yet to concede a goal. They are unbeaten at home in 27 European games since a 2-1 defeat to London rivals Chelsea at the quarter final stage of this competition in 2004. Including that game, however, they have won only five of last ten knockout games on their own turf.

United, meanwhile, are undefeated in eleven European away trips since a 3-0 semi final loss to AC Milan at the San Siro in 2007. That reverse was one of five in last ten knockout contests on the road but the only occasion the Red Devils were beaten by two goals or more.

Common sense would suggest that the Arsenal will require an early goal to settle nerves and plant seeds of doubt into the minds of the opposition. There has been a goal scored within 30 minutes in each of the last six games at the Emirates. An opener within 0-10 or 11-20 minutes can be backed at around [5.7]. The Gunners have led at half-time in over fifty percent of their home games this season and in seven of the last ten. They are [3.55] to win the first half with a 1-0 midway scoreline available at [5.2].

When playing host to Manchester United, Arsenal have won four of the last ten, losing just twice - with two of those wins coming in the last three seasons. Seven of those ten have resulted in 3 or more goals, four of those producing four or more names on the score sheet. United have failed to find the net away to Arsenal only once in their last eight visits while the Gunners have scored two or more in six of those eight. Given this, the [2.2] to back for Over 2.5 goals looks generous with the [4.1] for Over 3.5 goals also tempting.

Historically, this fixture is often a fiery one with the last ten averaging around four bookings (8pts) per game. The official for this encounter, Italian Roberto Rossetti, has dished out 21 yellow cards and one red in his last four Champions League games so a punt on 9pts and above in the bookings odds market at [2.1] or higher may appeal.

There are seven players who would miss a potential final should they be shown a card, including two of United's frontline, Wayne Rooney and Carlos Tevez, who are both around [3.5] to score anytime by the way. Another in danger of suspension is Arsenal striker Robin Van Persie, who trained on Monday but is still not certain to start. Should he play, the Dutchman is also around [3.5] to score with strike partner Emmanuel Adebayor [7.4] to break the deadlock by netting first. However, in need of inspiration, Arsenal will look to captain Cesc Fabregas to lead the assault from midfield and he can be backed to be first goalscorer at around [11.0].

Rio Ferdinand looked uncertain for the return leg but is likely to start having picked up only bruising to his ribs. Patrice Evra is a major doubt however, after taking an ankle knock at the weekend. Arsenal are still without Gael Clichy, with Mikael Silvestere again a concern and Eduardo ruled out for the remainder of the season.

With Champions League football for next season now guaranteed, this could effectively be Arsenal's final game of the season in terms of matches that actually matter and they should look to treat it as such. A fourth season without silverware would be mentally punishing for the club and border on the unacceptable. There is no longer a Thierry Henry, Robert Pires or Patrick Vieira to provide a moment of magic to win a game so it is time for the young guns to carve out their own name in history.

Clearly capable of scoring themselves, Arsenal's main problem will be keeping a clean sheet. As Clive Tyldsley once famously predicted in commentary, when they need to, Manchester United "always score". If they do, then this may just be too large a task for this current Arsenal side.