• Harris produces near-perfect performance

• Trump becoming a laughing stock

• Wide Harris coalition poised for victory

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Writing my instant reaction to the debate at 4am, I could not have been more positive about how the night panned out, and the implications for multiple bets on Kamala Harris advised on these pages from odds of 84-1 down to 11-10.

But as every experienced bettor understands, one should always be wary of getting carried away with a good position or caught up in the hype, in the heat of the moment.

Well, after some sleep, food and time to think, I can honestly say my confidence has not deteriorated. Quite the reverse. And this comes after a period of, perhaps uncharacteristically, fearing the worst and trying to talk myself out of it. Here's why.

Harris bettered both Biden and Clinton

Trump lost the opening debate in both previous cycles, badly. Yet he won the first election and lost the second narrowly, after polls projected him getting thrashed. Hence, I will never totally write him off again. Nevertheless, the betting is still virtually tied and that simply seems wrong. Last night was a massacre.

The 2020 debate with Biden was also catastrophic. The news cycle coming out of it was horrific. That had little to do with anything Biden actually said, rather than Trump's terrible, aggressive, rude performance. He contracted Covid later that week, which transformed the narrative until a second debate, when performing much better.

Two important differences with this one are that Harris went in with nothing like Biden's definition. She had plenty to prove, and could not have done it better. From the body language, aware how the split-screen would look, to the calculated mockery, to demonstrating the clear political, moral and ethical dividing lines.

She set a trap by mocking his rallies, which he walked right into. Saying that people were exhausted by the constant division and negatively will resonate far beyond the Democrat base. In fact she barely set out to appeal to the converted. Instead, she positioned herself as a uniter, a patriot, a defender of US interests. Presidential.

Here's the entire exchange that started with Kamala pointing out how Trump's rallies are both nuts and boring, Trump losing his shit and saying they are the most incredible rallies in history before spreading the hoax about Haitian immigrants eating cats and dogs, and then David... pic.twitter.com/kiWBoca4ym

-- Justin Baragona (@justinbaragona) September 11, 2024

Hope versus fear wins

Whilst it is true that the era of populism and information war has changed politics, I still believe optimism works better than negativity. The dividing lines she set out - uniter vs divider; a candidate who works for you vs one who thinks only of himself; one who seeks to lift people up, rather than beat them down - is the perfect framing.

Since becoming the Democrat nominee, activists have been saying the enthusiasm and energy felt like 2008. When a black liberal candidate who authored "The Audacity of Hope" won a landslide. More than Obama in his second election, Hillary Clinton or Biden, Harris managed to recapture that optimism last night.

Contrast that with Trump, who seems to have completely forgotten how he won in 2016. MAGA rhetoric has always been divisive but it also had a clearly optimistic message of economic renewal, which resonated particularly well in the long-suffering Rust Belt. Now all Trump seems to offer is relentless fear about immigrants, drowning out anything else.

Trump's performance has deteriorated

I will resist blaming Trump's age for the decline, but it is real. He told 44 'non-facts' according to WAPO analysis. Their methodology seems generous. The world is laughing today at his claims that immigrants are eating people's cats and dogs.

That wasn't the only unforced error. Offered the chance to at least partly neutralise the baggage from 2020 - to admit he lost (as he has started to elsewhere), and acknowledge some regret over his behavior on January 6th - he doubled down and ludicrously blamed Nancy Pelosi.

Trump was so undisciplined he missed open goals. When the moderator asked Harris about multiple flip-flops, she said she would address them all, before choosing only the one with which she was comfortable with and felt was essential - fracking. It was thus neutralised.

If on his game, Trump would have hammered on about transgender rights for migrants, supporting bail funds for rioters, flip-flopping on healthcare. Instead, they got a passing mention which will be forgotten.

She offered a home to Trump's GOP critics

Importantly, especially given her track record in San Francisco and previous presidential bid, Harris avoided pandering to the Left. Even when provoked over race and other bigotry, she stayed calm and measured.

This election will be determined by the behavior of supporters of either party in 2020, who have become sceptical. If you were a Nikki Haley supporter in the primary, or a national security conservative, Harris played your tunes. She excoriated Trump on the details of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, his support for Putin, love letters to Kim Jong Un, disdain for NATO and EU allies, his deal with the Taliban. These lines were perfect.

Kamala Harris: Why don't you tell the 800,000 Polish Americans in Pennsylvania, how quickly you would give up for the sake of favor and what you think is a friendship with what is known to be a dictator, who would eat you for lunch? pic.twitter.com/lgiPPkfPT2

-- Acyn (@Acyn) September 11, 2024

Will this move the needle?

This is always the question nowadays, given a hyper-polarized environment. I believe we will see an uptick in her national poll lead, and in swing states, but the change probably won't be huge. I predict her odds to shorten to around 1.75/7 - a 59% chance of winning the election - over the next fortnight. Remember, a lot of non-American bettors only really tuned in seriously today.

The only caveat to my optimism is borne from the experience of past elections, especially Clinton's defeat. I firmly believe that micro-targeted, negative propaganda, (colluding with Putin via Julian Assange and data firm Cambridge Analytica), swung that tight election and changed history.

I firmly believe the power of such microtargeted propaganda remains understated and under-researched. Trump supporters and the uncommitted will be bombarded by memes, bad pictures, doctored videos and the like for the next eight weeks.

But Harris isn't Clinton. They were targeting an already unpopular, defined politician in 2016, and not entirely without substance. Those tactics were revolutionary back then. Now, Harris is launching the biggest digital ad-spend in electoral history. Last night alone provided enough viral material for microtargeted clips. Trump is there for the taking. Uniquely both a threat to democracy and a laughing stock.

Meanwhile, Harris is building a vast coalition from left-wing supporters of her economic policies, such as Bernie Sanders and AOC, to neoconservatives like the Cheneys and now, best of all, Taylor Swift. This does not feel anything like a toss-up election.

Now read US Election 2024: Five reasons to back Kamala Harris to win