• Harris ahead in polls, behind in betting

• Democrat campaign looks more effective

• Enthusiasm and registration signs bode well for Harris

• Follow our 2024 US Election live blog here

Labor Day weekend in the US signals the start of the final, intense period of the campaign in the race for the presidency. The betting is almost tied, with Donald Trump holding marginal favouritism at odds of 1.981/1 compared to 2.111/10 for Kamala Harris.

As explained in my recent posts for our US Election Live Blog, I'm not convinced the market is right. Here's six reasons why Harris represents the value betting option.

Consistent approvals advantage

Fivethirtyeight have Harris ahead by an average 3.3%. On that basis, one could make a decent case for either candidate. The pair will receive at least 6% more than the 91% currently allocated between them on polling day, leaving quite a wide range of plausible outcomes. Plus, she needs to be at least a couple of points up in the popular vote to win the electoral college.

Therefore, approval ratings may be a better guide at this stage. Here, the signal is clearer. The average Harris approval figure at Fivethirtyeight is around 3.5% higher than the favorability figure for Trump. Moreover, her numbers have improved markedly since becoming the nominee.

Trump's favourability numbers have also improved since leaving office but remain deep underwater, with entrenched strong disapprovals, and he has much less room for improvement.

Whilst one wouldn't generally expect vice presidential picks to be a key determinant, the gap between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance is stark. The Democrat has a +4.5 approval, compared to -10.5 for the Republican. Vance is the most unpopular running mate in history.

Cash and organisational advantage

During these final nine weeks, the ability to campaign effectively is critical. To spread your message and get out your voters. Both campaigns have hundreds of millions of cash in hand, but an earlier Trump advantage over Joe Biden has been erased and the Harris campaign is breaking records. In the six weeks since she became the nominee, $540M has been raised by the campaign.

The situation is even clearer when it comes to the wider party infrastructure. The Republican National Committee has been paying towards Trump's enormous legal bills and is apparently very cash-strapped. In some states, such as Colorado, there is a stand-off between different factions about who gets the money. It doesn't bode well.

Ditto, regarding the respective ground games. In Pennsylvania - the most important swing state - the Harris campaign has opened 12 times as many field offices. It seems that the Trump campaign became complacent, thinking Biden was the opponent, so they may rapidly catch up, but the growing financial deficit will make that much harder. As it stands, the Democrats appear to have a big ground game advantage.

Growing enthusiasm gap

Crowd sizes probably aren't a particularly useful measure, because national elections aren't decided by the party base, or true believers. However the huge crowds at Harris rallies are having two positive effects. First, boosting morale on the Democrat side. Second, they are driving Trump crazy. Not only is his obsession with them a distraction from narratives that could help him win votes, but his constant claims that the crowds are fake, AI generated come across frankly as deranged, and reinforces negative perceptions of him.

When it comes to enthusiasm among the whole electorate, check these trends. The 2008 election in question produced the best Democrat performance in living memory.

Democratic enthusiasm is at Obama 2008 levels. Here's why. https://t.co/sm9to5ySxK

-- Post Politics (@postpolitics) August 29, 2024

Registration trends

Related to that enthusiasm, registering voters is absolutely critical to any Democrat election campaign. Put simply, the groups of voters whom they fare best amongst are always less likely to be registered. To max out her vote, Harris needs black, Hispanic, women and young voters to register in high numbers.

Towards this, they will be delighted with the registration news coming out of Georgia last week (a swing state that Trump really must win to stand a chance, and where the polls have levelled up). Furthermore, as Tom Bonier's tweets demonstrate, the trends regarding women are nationwide.

New voters have registered in droves in Georgia since Kamala Harris entered the presidential race, especially Black, Hispanic and young voters, according to state election data. #gapol https://t.co/MdGJaZRWe2

-- Mark Niesse (@markniesse) August 30, 2024

I graphed the percent of new registrants who were women for every day of the past 2+ years. This is just the 15 states where we have files updated since the 7/21 candidate change.

Look at that spike in late July. The Harris Effect is adding to the Dobbs effect, surpassing the... pic.twitter.com/uTjqpy9R0n

-- Tom Bonier (@tbonier) August 31, 2024

Okay, here's another one I made, this is the share of registrants who are young Black women (the fastest surging group we've found since the VP became the nominee), again... just unbelievable increases in registration here. pic.twitter.com/kkyUVeNizW

-- Tom Bonier (@tbonier) August 31, 2024

Democrats dominating key down ballot polls

Last month, I wrote about the polls in Senate races in five of the seven key states. In PA, MI, WI, NV and AZ, the Democrat candidate is well ahead. Also add the gubernatorial race in North Carolina, where the Democrat Josh Stein's consistent advantage over Republican Mark Robinson is close to double-digits.

Therefore if they are accurate and the trend persists, Trump requires a level of 'ticket-splitting' on a much bigger scale than seen in recent elections. That's much more plausible in a Governors race than for the Senate, where numbers bode very well for Harris.

Consider the example of Arizona - another state that is essential to Trump's path to victory. Ruben Gallego, a liberal Latino, is dominating Kari Lake, the personification of Trumpism and a key ally, by 7% upwards. Yet Trump remains slightly ahead on the averages. Does it seem plausible that a big, decisive chunk of Gallego voters will reject Lake but back Trump? Especially given the Democrats won every Senate election in the state since Trump became president in 2016 and where Biden won in 2020? I find that hard to believe.

Now read US Election 2024: How to use Betfair odds to predict the electoral college