• Harris ahead in the polls

• Convention likely to provide further bounce

• Vance proving a liability for Trump

The weekend saw more excellent polling news for Kamala Harris. The respected NYT/Siena polls showed her ahead and improving across four key states, as mentioned in our US Election Live Blog. Furthermore, check out this from the FT. The economy was almost universally seen as Trump's biggest asset when he polled far ahead of Biden on such measures.

Who do you trust more about the economy?

Harris 42%
Trump 41%

First time a Democrat leads since the survey began.

Financial Times - 1001 RV - 8/5 pic.twitter.com/WW7JPt5FDC

-- Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) August 11, 2024

Another guide to sentiment can be found in the polls for US Senate races in key states. Of the six states expected to determine the electoral college, five have corresponding Senate races. In all five, the Democrat candidate is comfortably ahead and has been so for some time.

Of course, there is a difference between a Senate candidate with local pedigree, and a Presidential candidate. It is perfectly possible that voters will 'split their ticket' between a Republican for one race, and a Democrat for another.

Nevertheless, the difference between the two measures when the race was set to be Trump v Biden always felt improbably overstated. Trump is the most 'Marmite' candidate in history and his entire era in politics has been marked by ultra-polarisation. Persuadables are thin on the ground. Actual results of these races since he first ran in 2016 show predictable similarities. Here's what happened in those six states and where they stand in 2024.

Arizona: Gallego well ahead of Trumpian Lake

The latest poll from Arizona puts Democrat Ruben Gallego a massive 11% ahead of Kari Lake - an election-denier who lost the Governors race here in 2022, and arch ally of Trump. Whilst 11% is probably an outlier, Gallego has been consistently ahead and polls either at or close to 50%. (This is a useful benchmark at a time when all such polls include sizeable undecideds).

Ticket-splitting is fairly common in Arizona, which has a large share of Independents. In 2020, Biden won by 0.3%, while Democrat Mark Kelly won the Senate race by 2.4%. A 2% difference isn't that big, and can likely be explained by Kelly's particularly strong personal brand.

In 2016, longstanding incumbent John McCain won by 13%, compared to Trump's 3.5% margin. Again, obviously explained by McCain's appeal to Independents. Note Donald Trump and Kari Lake pride themselves on their disdain for McCain, his widow, and brand of politics.

Michigan: Blue-leaning state reverting to type

Ticket-splitting seems much less relevant in Michigan and this is probably the hardest of the six races for Trump to win. Biden won by 2.8%, compared to 1.7% for Senator Gary Peters.

This is an open seat in 2022, so Elissa Slotkin will not gain an incumbency advantage. Nevertheless, the Democrat leads solidly by between 3-8% and has been recorded above 50%.

Pennsylvania: Democrats thriving in most important state

If one state is set to determine the presidency, Pennsylvania is it. Without it, a Harris win becomes extremely unlikely. And whilst Trump has more paths, they aren't likely without it.

There was no Senate race here in 2020 but in 2016, Pat Toomey won by 1.5% compared to Trump's 0.7% margin. An extremely small difference, explained by third party votes. To win in 2024, Trump needs either the Senate polls to be completely wrong, or to massively outperform them.

NYT/Siena have Bob Casey Jr. a massive 14% ahead and other firms have recorded leads of 11% and 13%. This correlates with Josh Shapiro's landslide victory in the 2022 Governors race.

Wisconsin: Consistent Baldwin lead bodes well for Harris

Ticket-splitting is not uncommon in Wisconsin, as evidenced by their having a Republican and a Democrat as Senators. In 2022, they re-elected both a Republican Senator and Democrat Governor.

Again though, given Tammy Baldwin's solid lead between 5-11%, Trump is going to need to overperform his party. On the one occasion when his presidential election coincided with a Senate race, the reverse happened. In 2016, Ron Johnson won by 3.5% while Trump beat Hillary Clinton by just 0.8%.

Nevada: Democrats on course to maintain winning streak

Here, the Democrats haven't lost a presidential election since 2004 or a Senate race since 2012. Moreover, recent numbers suggest very little ticket-splitting.

In 2020, Biden won by exactly the same 2.4% margin as Hillary Clinton in 2016. The 2016 Senate race on the same day also produced a 2.4% winning margin for Catherine Cortez-Masto. This year, incumbent Jacky Rosen is consistently ahead, by a 3-12% margin. Winning this state is all about getting out the vote, much more than persuading the other side.

As for the sixth key state, Georgia doesn't have a Senate race this year. In 2020, they had two. Both went to run-offs. Whereas Biden won by just 0.2%, David Ossoff won by 1.2% and Raphael Warnock by 2.1%. That small difference is likely explained by differential turnout and motivation for the run-offs.

The consistent theme from all six is that a Democrat vote share in at least the high-forties is not soft at all. It reinforces my view that the earlier polls showing Trump beating Biden were based on dissatisfaction with the latter, and less likely to be sustained against a strong Democrat candidate. Biden's age was the issue.

From here, the number of undecideds will steadily decline. As candidates campaign together, and adverts are targeted to the same groups, voters will fall more into line with their usual party. I expect the result will be increased Harris leads in these key states. If so, her current odds of 1.9620/21 to win will soon look huge.

Now read US Election 2024: Harris momentum will continue through August