• Harris ahead in the polls

• Convention likely to provide further bounce

• Vance proving a liability for Trump

The US Presidential Election betting has moved markedly towards Kamala Harris in the 17 days since Joe Biden withdrew from the race. At the time of Biden's announcement, Donald Trump was trading around 1.618/13. This morning he's at 1.981/1, still favourite but only just.

At 2.1411/10, Harris' odds shortened to a new low since yesterday's announcement of her VP pick, Tim Walz. That was somewhat surprising, given her choice. Presumably, the market had factored in her picking Josh Shapiro - the popular governor of the most electorally critical state - and the initial reaction to Walz was a slight drift, as reported in our US Election Live Blog.

Polls continue to improve for Harris

No doubt, Harris has momentum. New surveys from highly respected pollsters Marist College and SurveyUSA put her three points up - which is probably past the mark at which she would win the electoral college. This is consistent with a wider trend that sees her hoovering up key segments of the electorate who were previously cool on Biden.

This is a bigger margin than Biden beat Trump by in 2020. This is a huge story. https://t.co/v9rf6zwUoH

-- Tea Pain (@TeaPainUSA) August 5, 2024

Will definitely vote - Black voters

Today - 74%
July 18 - 58%

CBS pic.twitter.com/BEHwIlVmUV

-- Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) August 4, 2024

Presidential Election Forecast by @NateSilver538 (chance of winning)

July 30
Donald Trump: 61%
Kamala Harris: 38%
.
August 4
Kamala Harris: 51%
Donald Trump: 49%
----
Electoral Votes
Kamala Harris: 278
Donald Trump: 260
----
Swing States (chance of... https://t.co/CPOXWzycmg pic.twitter.com/QUCOQgfcd9

-- InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 4, 2024

Nate Silver has moved his forecast to slightly favour Harris, whilst the influential Fivethirtyeight model has been suspended since Biden's withdrawal.

It is, of course, still relatively early in the race. Traditionally, Labor Day (the first Monday in September) is when the campaigns get serious. Given how close the race is, it would be folly to make a confident prediction this far out regarding the eventual result. However just as the trend towards Harris in recent weeks was logical on the basis of events, there is plenty to suggest it will continue over the next month.

Core Democrat coalition is reforming

First, these polls are showing a consistent trend. If indeed young, black and hispanic voters are 'coming home' to the Democrats, one must expect Harris poll numbers to rise. It appears that Biden was dragging the ticket down with those groups.

Note too how in Senate races across the key states, Biden was significantly underperforming the local Democrat candidate. Polls suggested a level of ticket-splitting not seen in years. I expect that will reduce and revert to normal now there isn't a massive age question hanging over the presidential candidate.

Convention bounce is likely

One would particularly expect Harris's numbers to surge around the Democratic National Convention, which starts on 19th August and will officially anoint the presidential ticket. Historically, candidates of both parties get a small bounce after basking in all that extra publicity.

That bounce usually fades quickly but, in terms of short-term price movements, I expect that if Harris doesn't overtake Trump in the betting before the convention, she will do during it or afterwards.

What happens in September and beyond is another matter. There may or may not be TV debates between the pair. Trump is currently refusing to participate in the ABC debate on September 7th, which he had previously agreed to with Biden. Instead, Fox News have given him an alternative, to which Harris is unlikely to agree.

If either takes place, that could provide a gamechanger, if not quite on the scale of the June 27th debate which ruined Biden.

Monday's bad day for stock markets around the world raised the spectre of a potential recession. Were this to happen, it would likely favour Trump in a big way. And if it doesn't happen, be sure that he and his social media machine will claim one is either here but hidden, or imminent. Those who underestimate Trump's ability to create alternative reality have not been paying attention for the past decade.

Too early to judge Tim Walz

And what of the running mates? Having watched Tim Walz at the rally last night, I can see why she picked him. A working class guy from the Mid-West, who used to coach the school football team, may reach parts of the electorate in those key states whom Harris cannot. Voters whom Biden appealed to.

Walz's presence on the ticket may also quell any revolt from the Left or progressive wing. Remember, the only election Trump won came in part as a result of Bernie Sanders supporters failing to turn out for Hillary Clinton. Nevertheless, it remains a gamble to go in with an unapologetically left-wing ticket. Walz's comments and actions during the 2020 BLM riots in Minneapolis will be replayed and weaponised.

Vance selection could wreck Trump's bid

Where Harris has been extremely fortunate is in Trump's choice of running mate. J.D. Vance is polling worse than any VP candidate in history. I predicted he would get the gig on the basis of his unflinching loyalty to Trump and Putin's foreign policy positions. Elon Musk lobbied hard for him. In seeking to appease them, Trump abandoned his own populist instincts and skills.

Vance is a disastrous pick. His comments about 'childless cat ladies' and positions on abortion and IVF are electoral suicide. Harris doubtless wanted to run on abortion and Vance has given her ammunition. Walz's children were due to IVF.

It would be logistically very difficult for Trump to switch VP, but I wouldn't completely rule it out. If Harris opens up a clear poll lead during August, there will be recriminations. Trump's campaigns have always been chaotic and often incompetent. How they manage the next month, whether they can hold their nerve in the face of his opponent enjoying a predictable honeymoon, could well determine the eventual result.

Now read US Election 2024: The state of play 100 days out