Brexit: Huge market shake-up as Leave price shortens dramatically

Building momentum: Punters are getting behind the Vote Leave campaign
Building momentum: Punters are getting behind the Vote Leave campaign
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It has been a dramatic few days in Betfair's Brexit market, with the price of 'Leave' plummeting from around 3/1 (25% chance) to 6/4 (40% chance) and 'Remain - a solid 1/3 favourite (78% chance) last week - out to 4/6 (a 60% chance).

"Interestingly, some of the market dynamics are similar to those seen in the run-up to the Scottish Referendum, if more marked this time around."

Brexit has attracted 48% of the betting money in the past 24 hours, compared to just 23% of trades over the lifespan of the market. The biggest individual trade in the last 24 hours saw £25,000 matched on Brexit at 6/4.

Naomi Totten, Spokeswoman for Betfair, said: "The EU referendum market has exploded into life in the past week with an average of £1m traded every day and a staggering £3m traded overnight on Monday. Brexit has been backed heavily in the past 24 hours, although Remain is still clinging to favouritism and has been defended again this morning.

"The market is proving incredibly popular with stacks of bets still lined up waiting to be matched. Since we typically see volumes double in the last week of trading; this could well become one of our biggest ever markets full-stop."

The market shake-up represents another huge boost to the Vote Leave campaign, following the ICM/Guardian poll on Monday which gave Brexit a six-point lead and The Sun today urging its readers to vote to leave the EU.

Interestingly, however, some of the market dynamics are similar to those seen in the run-up to the Scottish Referendum, if more marked this time around.

The price of a 'No' vote drifted 10 days ahead of the vote, in the wake of the first poll that had given 'Yes' a lead (the one that caused such huge panic in Westminster), but the market quickly settled and proved to be correct.

With more than £28m already matched on the EU Referendum Result market and more than a week to go until the vote, it is expected to be the biggest politics market of all time on Betfair, beating the £40m traded on the 2012 US President market.


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