It makes sense for me to ride in Ireland this weekend, but I do think that Idaho will take an awful lot of beating in the St Leger.
He is clearly the best horse going into the race and I think he will stay; he could prove himself a class apart from the opposition. At much bigger prices, I would possibly give Ormito an each-way shout.
16:00 Leopardstown - Douglas Macarthur
He was too green and inexperienced to do himself justice on his debut but it was a different story in a maiden over this course and distance last time. He was very impressive in making all there for me, and there should be plenty more to come from him.
I am not sure how strong the race was - the placed horses haven't raced since, a couple of others have been beaten, but his stablemate in sixth, Utah, won his maiden - but he couldn't have done it any better.
He looks an exciting prospect, and will hopefully continue to develop as he gains experience. But this looks a decent race with strong opposition for a Group 3, even if there are only five runners, and this will be the easiest ground he has encountered as well. I am working on the basis of yielding ground at the moment with the unsettled forecast.
17:05 Leopardstown - US Army Ranger
He confirmed himself a high-class colt when second in the Derby and was given a break afterwards. Although he was obviously well below the Epsom form when only fourth on his return, I don't think Aidan would have been too disappointed, as he would have left a fair bit to work on with an autumn campaign in mind.
Hopefully, you will see the horse who ran so well at Epsom in June, rather than the one at the Curragh last time, and the form of the Derby has obviously worked out well. He remains a very exciting colt.
Once again, though, there may be only five runners but this looks a very strong Group 3 and I thought Zhukova looked a very good filly earlier in the season, and Stellar Mass is improving, too.
17:35 Leopardstown - Alice Springs
There were excuses for her in France last time, where the watered ground wasn't ideal, either. It rode pretty dead there. But if it is yielding here then hopefully that won't be a problem as there was cut in the ground when she met trouble in running and still finished an excellent third to Qemah and Nemoralia in the Coronation Stakes at Ascot.
I would prefer faster ground for her - she bounced off it when winning the Falmouth impressively - but we can't change that, and at her best she will give Qemah a race.
That filly does look the one to beat after her Ascot and Rothschild wins though, but Persuasive has done nothing wrong, looked very impressive at Ascot last time and deserves this crack at Group 1 company, and Jet Setting is in here, too.
18:10 Leopardstown - Hit It A Bomb
I would have preferred it quicker for him, but he handles cut well enough. It was on the easy side after rain when he won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf at Keeneland last October, where he did remarkably well to win coming from so far off the pace.
He was then off for a long time before his third to Tribal Beat over course and distance last month, and you would hope and expect that he will have come on a lot for it. He was a horse I liked and rated last season, so I am looking forward to getting back on him.
18:45 Leopardstown - Minding
She may well be a touch too short in the betting given the incredible depth to this field but I think she deserves to be favourite, and I seriously wouldn't want to be riding anything else.
I don't recall many races with as much all-round class and depth as this though - even in the absence of Fascinating Rock - and you are probably going to have a dual Group 1 winner and previous winner of this race, The Grey Gatsby, among the outsiders and that tells a story.
Everyone knows how much I rate this filly. Okay, she may not have been at her best in the Nassau last time but she didn't need to be, and this filly has brilliance and versatility, and a change of pace, that few have. She is tough, too, as we saw in the Oaks. But there are dangers, serious ones, everywhere you look and 13 runners also means luck will play a big part in determining the winner.
King George winner Highland Reel probably ran a career-best at York last time, though he would prefer better ground, and we know how good Breeders' Cup Turf winner Found is on her day; the French are well represented by their last two Derby winners in Almanzor and New Bay, and my preference of that pair would be for the former; My Dream Boat is obviously not out if it on his Ascot defeat of Found; Eclipse winner Hawkbill will have his ground again; and then we have the dual Derby winner Harzand. He is tough and classy, and probably still improving, but you just wonder whether the step back to 1m2f makes him vulnerable to something with a change of gear.
You could run well here and finish fifth, but if I am in the right place at the right time - and I stress that luck will be key in such a big field - then I hope I am on the best horse. I don't think anyone will be going into this race confident of winning, though.
You can read Tony Calvin's Horse Racing Tips for day 4 at Doncaster behind the link.