Today's Racing News: Punters move morning markets with cash stacked at Stratford

Stratford
The feature race of the day comes from Stratford, where Cadzand makes his debut over fences.

It's Thursday, and here with all the statistics and daily racing info a punter could need to grab an edge, is Daryl Carter.

"There's nothing wrong with getting excited over a performance so long as the form and the time figure backs it up. The first thing you should be asking yourself when a horse wins by a distance is why?"

Today, there are three jumps meetings from Stratford, Clonmel and Ffos Las and two flat meetings from Chelmsford and Lingfield staged on the all-weather as the programme slowly swings in favour of the National Hunt racing.

There are plenty of course winners in today's column, and correlating those with the "Weighted to go well" section can be a profitable angle for punters!

Let's get stuck in.

Money Talk

Money Talk continues to highlight the Betfair Sportsbook big-money moves to keep you in the loop. This section highlights market moves between 1:00 am and 9:00 am.

12:55 Stratford - Mille Sussurri 12/1 into 8/1
13:30 Stratford - Secret Secret 8/1 into 11/2
15:15 Stratford - Fort Denison 7/2 into 11/4
19:30 Chelmsford - Secret Glow 12/1 into 17/2

The market says LAY!

Which horse is the Betfair Sportsbook market suggesting to Lay?

13:30 Stratford - Humaniste 8/11 OUT 1/1

Mark your card

The Betfair Sportsbook is paying extra places today!

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In the opening contest at Stratford, the 12:25 Dan Flowers Wedding Party Mares' Maiden Hurdle, trainer Warren Greatrex saddles his sole runner on the card with Wind From The West 17.016/1. Greatrex has a 29% strike rate at Stratford.

Trainer Ralph Smith will have his first runner at Ffos Las today with Milanford 8.07/1 in the 15:05 Maiden Hurdle. His runner is a 133 rated chaser who makes his hurdling debut.

Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 27% strike rate at Ffos Las. He sends Amenon 2.35/4 in the 14:30 and Take Your Time 3.211/5 16:50.

The double pays 8.07/1 for those Nicholls' fans.

Mrs Jane Williams is not far behind Paul Nicholls with a 25% strike rate at Ffos Las, and she also has two runners. Moka De Vassy 8.07/1 in the 13:20 and Gladiateur Allen 4.57/2 who must have a big chance in the 16:50.

The double pays 34.033/1

At Lingfield in the 13:03, three-year-olds have won seven of the last ten runnings. Today there are only four three-year-olds in the 14 runner field they are: Rogue Power 2.77/4, Waterloo Sunset 9.08/1, Cuban Cigar 10.09/1 and Act Naturally 19.018/1.

There is a fast track qualifier at Lingfield today at 15:23: Seven of the last ten winners have been rated between 91 and 99, and today's market leaders are both rated 101.

At Chelmsford, jockey Sean Leavy has an 18% strike rate for trainer Ivan Furtado, and they team up with Mutaraafeq 3.02/1 in the 20:30 chelmsfordcityracecourse.com Handicap.

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Horses for courses

This section highlights horses that have won twice or more at today's tracks and could be in with a chance today.

12:55 Stratford - Atlantic Storm - Has won here four times (31%)
12:55 Stratford - Romanor - Has won here four times (40%)
13:03 Lingfield - Subliminal - Has won here six times (20%)
13:03 Lingfield - Delicate Kiss - Has won here four times (24%)
13:03 Lingfield - My Target - Has won here three times (19%)
14:13 Lingfield - Viola - Has won here twice (67%)
14:48 Lingfield - Documenting - Has won here three times (43%)
16:33 Lingfield - Desert Land - Has won here twice (20%)
18:30 Chelmsford - Red Stripes - Has won here four times (21%)
19:30 Chelmsford - Full Intention - Has won here four times (33%)
20:30 Chelmsford - Badenscoth - Has won here twice (25%)

Weighted to go well

"Weighted to go well" highlights horses running that are more than 10lbs below their last winning handicap mark.

13:03 Lingfield - Delicate Kiss - Has won off 81 runs off 65
18:30 Chelmsford - Lorna Cole - Has won off 62 runs off 52
18:30 Chelmsford - Red Stripes - Has won off 64 runs off 45
20:00 Chelmsford - Laurentia - Has won off 60 runs off 50
20:00 Chelmsford - Chloellie - Has won off 60 runs off 47

Form Watch

This section highlights a trainer, owner or jockey who is in excellent current form and their runners or rides for the day.

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Trainer Sam Thomas is operating at a 50% strike rate with three winners from his last six runners in the last 14 days. Today he saddles Jazz King 3.7511/4 in the 14:30 at Ffos Las.

Furthest traveller

Today's furthest traveller is trainer Jake Thomas Colton who makes the 227 mile journey to Stratford with his runner The Three Wizards 31.030/1 at 13:30.

Race of the day

Today's race of the day is Stratford's 14:05 Charlie Longsdon Racing Handicap Chase, where a field of nine goes to post, and three make their chase debut in a highly competitive handicap.

Cadzand is one of my horses to follow for the season, providing the price is right, of course, but he has been well found at the top of the market today, and this is no easy assignment on chase debut.

It's interesting connections throw him straight into an open handicap rather than a Novice Chase for his debut, which exhibits confidence from the camp for their hurdler, who was three for five in that sphere.

However, he has shown his best form second time out and has failed to win off the back of a break each time he has reappeared, so there are good reasons to think he will improve from this outing.

Former Grade 1 winning Novice Hurdler Reserve Tank is interesting back over fences for the first time since pulling up in the Marsh Novice Chase in 2020.

He failed to live up to expectations since his fine season over hurdles as a Novice and has previously needed the run first time out (Chepstow case and point).

He can lose ground at his fences with his jumping technique, and this move back over the larger obstacles doesn't fill me with confidence, but the ground is a positive.

Longshanks appeals at the prices given his very lightly raced profile, and this opening mark of 121 could underestimate him on handicap debut.

He recorded a good time figure when scoring at Wincanton in February, taking the scalp of a solid yardstick rated 129, and he has the size and scope to take well to this discipline.

The step back up in trip for this chase debut looks a good move, and he is open to plenty of improvement.

The ground is unknown, as is his record fresh, but there is enough compensation in the price to take a chance.

It's Bill and Bob for Timeform at Ffos Las

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The Timeform team give their NAP, NB and each-way shout for Thursday's racing!

Read Timeform tips here.

Value angle lies with Milanford at Ffos Las

Ffos Las's 15:05 Maiden Hurdle looks like a competitive heat in which a bounce back to form for Pipesmoker would see him very hard to beat on his peak efforts, and Bill Baxter's respected on his bumper form on this hurdling debut, but they are both well found in the market.

The value lies with Milanford, who has earned his 133 rating over fences and makes his hurdling debut for Ralph Smith. The drop back in trip could be a warning sign that he may need the run, but with the dead eight runners at the time of writing, he appeals most from an each-way betting proposition.

He ran an excellent race at Exeter on his first outing last season and kept some warm company in four starts filling the runner-up spot on three occasions.

His Doncaster Grade 2 runner-up effort to Hurricane Harvey (136) reads well in the context of this race, and there is no reason why the smaller obstacles will pose any issue whatsoever.

He has had a wind operation before today's outing and is similarly unexposed as the two at the top of the market, so a chance is taken.

Final Word

You know the National Hunt season is back when every horse that wins by five lengths plus in a Novice Hurdle is called a potential future star - is there anything worse?

The biggest mistake most punters make is taking a visual impression literally.

It's not helped by the media either. Countless times platforms have praised a performance with the fire emoji and the caption, "superstar?" when in reality, they have run no better than a class 5 on the card.

For those that do their homework, that's good because that horse will be far shorter than it should be next time out, but it pains me to see comments on such posts as "beast", Cheltenham? etc.

There's nothing wrong with getting excited over a performance so long as the form and the time figure backs it up.

The first thing you should be asking yourself when a horse wins by a distance is why?

Until tomorrow, be lucky.

Follow Daryl Carter on Twitter @DarylCarter7

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