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Today's Racing News: Horses for courses to pay the way on Thursday

Daryl Carter
16 September 2021
4 min read

Ayr takes over the baton from Yarmouth as the Gold Cup meeting begins.

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It's Thursday, and as one door closes at Yarmouth, another opens at Ayr, with their three-day meeting kicking off today, and Daryl Carter is on hand to guide you through...

"He has scored in four of his seven starts on the flat, and he has excuses for his three defeats (two over 1m4f - non-stayer and one in a slowly run affair when not best positioned), so he could represent the value in the race off of this fair mark of 94."

Yarmouth's midweek meeting comes to a close today as Ayr takes over the baton. There is also racing from Naas in Ireland, Pontefract and Chelmsford on the all-weather.

Money Talk

Money Talk continues to highlight the Betfair Sportsbook big-money moves to keep you in the loop. This section highlights market moves between 1:00 am and 9:00 am.

15:35 Ayr - Bringitonboris - 6/1 into 4/1
16:10 Ayr - Golden Melody - 7/1 into 11/2
16:35 Pontefract - Geminga - 16/5 into 9/4
16:45 Ayr - Highway Grey - 11/1 into 8/1

The market says LAY!

Which horse is the Betfair Sportsbook market suggesting to Lay?

16:45 Ayr - Cockalorum 15/4 OUT 9/2

The market has seen money for plenty already in the 16:45 which looks a good betting market for punters. The don't, however, want Cockalorum this morning.

Mark your card

The Betfair Sportsbook is paying extra places today!

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Ayr kick off their three-day meeting at 13:50 today, with their feature event, the Ayr Gold Cup, on Saturday, for which declarations will be out this morning at 11:00.

In today's 14:25 at Ayr, Tim Easterby is looking for a third successive win with Cassy O 11.010/1, who won the 15:00 on this card last year. Trainer Richard Fahey is looking for a third win in the race with Outrun The Storm 5.04/1.

At Ayr in the 15:00, jockey Kevin Stott and Middleham Park Racing have a 75% strike rate when they combined. Today they partner with Ventura Rascal 5.04/1.

Three-year-olds have won all five renewals of the 16:10 British Stallion Studs Scottish Premier Series EBF Fillies' Handicap at Ayr.

The feature race on day one at Ayr is the 16:45 Virgin Bet Kilkerran Cup Handicap. Three and four-year-olds have dominated in the last six years, with the latter scoring the last twice. Only one three-year-old runs today. Fairmac 5.59/2.

Appleby's staggering strike rate with newcomers

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Trainer Charlie Appleby saddles yet another two-year-old newcomer in the 14:40 with Ingleton 1.9010/11. The trainer has a 37.5% strike rate with first time out two-year-olds at Yarmouth.

At Chelmsford in the 17:30, trainer Martin Smith has a 31% strike rate when teaming up with Richard Kingscote (4-13), and they partner with Aleatoric 15.014/1.

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Horses for courses

This section highlights horses that have won twice or more at today's tracks and could be in with a chance today.

14:25 Ayr - Cassy O - Has won here twice (50%)
15:00 Ayr - Hijjaam - Has won here three times (30%)
15:35 Ayr - Oriental Lilly - Has won here three times (16%)
16:25 Yarmouth - The City's Phantom - Has won here twice (67%)
16:25 Yarmouth - Protected Guest - Has won here four times (44%)
17:18 Ayr - Rose Bandit - Has won here twice (40%)
17:40 Pontefract - Round The Island - Has won here six times (30%)
17:40 Pontefract - Mr Orange - Has won here five times (19%)

In the 16:45 at Ayr, Nicholas T 9.517/2 will look for his seventh win at the course while Tommy G 11.010/1 will look for his eighth.

The improving Platinumcard 7.513/2 is two for two here, as is Fairmac 5.59/2 and First Impression 13.012/1, while Tricorn 21.020/1 is two for three.

Weighted to go well

"Weighted to go well" highlights horses running that are more than 10lbs below their last winning handicap mark.

14:25 Ayr - Swiss Knight - Has won off 78 runs off 68
17:18 Ayr - Able Handy - Has won off 84 runs off 69
17:40 Pontefract - Mr Orange - Has won off 70 runs off 55
18:00 Chelmsford - Brazen Belle - Has won off 71 runs off 58
19:30 Chelmsford - Broughtons Flare - Has won off65 runs off 52
20:00 Chelmsford - Beepeecee - Has won off 67 runs off 47
20:30 Chelmsford - Agent Of Fortune - Has won off 76 runs off 56

Two horses above are running off handicap marks 20lbs lower than their last winning one. Both took a small step back in the right direction last time. The double of Beepeecee 9.08/1 and Agent Of Fortune 5.04/1 in the 20:00 and 20:30 at Chelmsford pays 45/1.

Form Watch

This section highlights a trainer, owner or jockey who is in excellent current form and their runners or rides for the day.

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Trainer Stuart Williams is operating at a 28% strike rate in the last 14 days (5-18). He has two runners at Yarmouth - 13:30 Manettino 21.020/1, 14:05 Royal Showqueen 26.025/1 - and one at Chelsmford - 18:30 Huraiz 5.04/1.

Furthest traveller

Today's furthest traveller is trainer David Loughnane who makes the 265 mile journey from his base to Ayr with Bababobo 11.010/1 in the 13:50.

Race of the day

The 16:45 at Ayr is a highly competitive event with plenty of runners, as mentioned in the column above, who like the course and are sure to go well. It's difficult to write off any in this field, and it's worth noting that stalls nine, ten and eleven have won five of the last six. Let's have a crack.

Cockalorum has scored twice in six runs this term, and his form in defeat when failing to finish outside of the first three places in all races this term is arguably stronger than today's contests.

He has become remarkably consistent, but this will be the fastest ground he has run on since 2019, and it remains to be seen how much more there is to come off of this career-high handicap mark at the age of six.

He certainly hasn't got ten pounds in hand off this handicap mark of 99, and he may be set for another place.

Three-year-old Fairmac will be popular here, given his improved form in the blinkers this season. He is two for two here at Ayr and is drawn well for his front running tactics in stall one.

He is open to further improvement, but his latest win here did come in a Class 5 event, and this is a big step up in grade compared to what he has been running in.

The handicapper hasn't missed his progression either. He has climbed the handicap nine pounds in 13 runs despite only scoring twice in Class 4 and Class 5 company. This asks a different question of him into a Class 2, and he is short enough.

Platinumcard has been a revelation switched to the flat this term and has risen ten pounds in the handicap for three wins this season, and he was a blatant non-stayer over 1m4f at Hamilton last time, but he shaped as though he was still in good form.

He is also two for two here at Ayr, and there is plenty of substance to that form.

He has scored in four of his seven starts on the flat, and he has excuses for his three defeats (two over 1m4f - non-stayer and one in a slowly run affair when not best positioned), so he could represent the value in the race off of this fair mark of 94.

Timeform offer up three of their best bets at Chelmsford

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The Timeform team have a nap, a next best, and an each-way shout at Chelmsford today.

Read Timeform tips here.

Final Word

Horses for courses looks to be the angle of the day.

It's always handy as a punter to know your horse will handle the course, but it is an angle that bookmakers have cottoned on to and more so this flat season, so the form must be worthwhile when backing one.

That may not be the case with Fairmac today. He represents no value, win or lose, at the top of the market. A three-year-old with course form will always be a shorter price than he should, despite what he has beaten.

The form takes a secondary seat when it comes to opening prices. So it is as important as ever to grab the value in the race.

Until tomorrow, be lucky.

Follow Daryl Carter on Twitter @DarylCarter7

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