US PGA Championship 2025 Cheat Sheet: Betfair golf experts' best bets for Quail Hollow

• Steve Rawlings backs Rory McIlroy to win consecutive majors

• Steve also has high hopes for Russell Henley at 109/1110.00

• Dave Tindall says it is time to back Thomas each-way at 16/117.00

• Course info, form stats, outsiders to back, first round leader and more

• Free bets for birdies in our Birdie Bonus offer. T&Cs apply. Click here for more.

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US PGA Championship 2025 tips and predictions

The Punter's Preview: Back McIlroy for more major joy

Steve Rawlings: "Aware of his fabulous record at Quail, I got Rory onside when he was winning the US Masters at 6/1 but he's still a fair price at anything around 5/1.

"Given how well he'd he been playing in the early part of the year, I was happy to back him at Augusta at only 8.6, even though he hadn't won a major since he won this one for a second time 11 years ago, so he looks very fairly priced here.

"When he won his fifth major and his second US PGA Championship at Valhalla in 2014, he did so less than a month after he'd won the Open Championship at Royal Hoylake, and back-to-back major wins could well be on the cards again here."

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Each-way picks from 16/1 to 150/1

Dave Tindall: "To beat the top three in the betting will need a player with lots and lots in his favour - and there may just be one in the form of Justin Thomas. JT never lives up to his pre-tournament billing at Augusta (one top 10, an eighth, in an April Masters)  but it's a totally different story in this event.

"He's won it twice and, of course, the first came here at Quail Hollow in 2017. The second was three years ago at Southern Hills. Both were on courses over 7,500 yards. Thomas also scored four points out of five at Quail Hollow in the 2022 Presidents Cup while he hasn't been worse than 26th in his last four starts here in the Wells Fargo. That's the background but now for his current form which is right at the top of the pile.

"In his last two starts, Thomas has a win at the RBC Heritage and a tied second in last week's Truist Championship. Thomas, who is 5th for both Approach and Tee To Green this season, ranks 23rd in SG: Putting. What a contrast that is to 2024 when he was one of worst putters on tour at 174th.

"The problem for JT is that Rory is sixth for SG: Putting and Scheffler 22nd. That shows how hard it will be to beat both. But Thomas, whose father was a PGA pro, may just have the gods in his favour in this event. Goodness knows how he got over the line in front in 2022 and if he can outputt his big rivals, a third win beckons."

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Find Me a 100 Winner Special: Back Henley at a big price

Steve Rawlings: "Following his victory at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March, Russell Henley was a very well-backed 50/1 chance to win the US Masters last month, but he was always up against it after he posted 79 on Thursday.

"He shot 68 on Friday, a score bettered by only two players in the field that day, but it wasn't quite enough to see him through to the weekend, and punters were left disappointed.

"Henley, who's now up to number eight in the Official World Rankings, performed much better the following week, finishing eighth behind Justin Thomas at the RBC Heritage, having sat second at halfway, and he started last week's Truist Championship nicely enough to sit 11^th and just four off the lead after round one.

"A 74 on Friday saw him drift out of contention but there were signs on Sunday that he's still in fair form - playing his first nine holes in four-under-par before signing for a 67 to finish 46^th.  

"That can't be described as an impressive week's work, but he finished 10^th at this week's venue, Quail Hollow, at last year's Truist Championship, and he's too big to ignore given his recent record in major championships."

Place order to lay 8 units @ 10.0 and 12 units @ 2.0

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First-Round Leader Tips: Don't ignore DeChambeau at 20/1

Dave Tindall: "It's a very obvious starting point but DeChambeau has excellent claims to be the US PGA first-round leader for the second time in three years.

"Those who don't follow LIV closely may know that he had a recent win in Korea. But less well documented is that he's been the 18-hole leader in the last two LIV events thanks to rounds of 63 (Mexico) and 65 (Korea).

"He was also fifth after the opening lap of the Masters and second after day one of the LIV Golf Miami event the week prior.

"As for majors, Bryson has twice been FRL at Augusta (2019 and 2024) while he's been fourth and seventh on the Thursday leaderboard in the last two editions of the US Open.

"He really is a heavyweight in this event having finished runner-up last year and fourth in two of his previous three US PGAs so, with conditions to suit, it's hard to ignore his claims.

"DeChambeau tees off at 1.47pm from the 1st local alongside Viktor Hovland and Gary Woodland."

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Top 5 and Top 10 Tips: Now is the time to back Niemann

Dave Tindall: "It's copy and paste for Niemann at the start of every Major it seems. He's regarded as a good bet by many this week and yet there's an obvious hole in his chances as the Chilean has never had a top 10 in 23 starts in the Majors.

"There are plenty of hints though. He's made the cut in 15 of his last 17 Majors and his prodigious length off the tee will help him at a course where he improved his finish each time when playing the Wells Fargo from 2018 to 2021. 

"Niemann gets so many eyes on him in Majors due to his continued excellence on LIV. He's won three of his last seven events (Adelaide, Singapore and Mexico) and the Data Golf world rankings which take into account LIV results rank him the ninth best player in the world.

Last four events: 20-1-29-33
US PGA form: 39-MC-23-30-MC-MC-71
Quail Hollow form: 18-38-MC
Last 50 starts - Win: 14%, Top 5: 34%, Top 10: 54%

"I'm slightly surprising myself but surely Niemann gets his first Major Top 10 very soon and, after resisting the urge to back him in the past, I'm going to pull the trigger now.

"He's shown promise on this course with 18th last time and that was four years ago. He's come on leaps and bounds since and it really does look a good fit for him. Back Niemann to get that elusive first Top 10 at this level at 4.4 on the Exchange."

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10-year trends point to...

Dave Tindall: "Interestingly, both [DeChambeau and Scheffler] have pulled some way clear of the field due to first wins of the season last week, Scheffler landing the CJ Cup Byron Nelson and DeChambeau capturing the LIV Golf Korea. It means no-one can catch them and although there may be a little bit of a reshuffle below, the two Americans dominate these trends.

"DeChambeau edges Scheffler due to getting the top mark for Driving Distance. Scheffler is above average but not in the top bracket and perhaps that could make the difference at lengthy Quail Hollow. US Open champ DeChambeau has finished ninth and fourth on his last two starts at Quail Hollow so that adds some confidence and he's this year's official trends pick."

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US PGA Championship betting data

Profiles and betting angles of the top 50 in the field

Matt Cooper:

McIlroy PGA record (most recent result on the right): 3-3-64-1-8-1-17-MC-22-50-8-33-49-8-7-12

"Having rid himself of the long shadow of an 11-year major championship-winning drought, the new Masters champion now has a much happier riddle to consider: to what extent can he ride the wave and win more of the tournaments that define a career? He's a two-time winner of this championship (2012 and 2014) and, even more compelling for his chances this week, his record at Quail Hollow is nothing short of superb. He won his first PGA Tour title there in 2010 (with a final round 62), won again in 2015 (with a third round 61), and was also victorious in 2021 and 2023. Didn't drive the ball well when seventh last week in Philadelphia but was confident a return to Quail Hollow would revive his accuracy." 

Angle? Not only very good at Quail Hollow, he's also gone sub-70 in nine of his last 12 PGA Championship final rounds.

First round/birdie record? He's twice shared the first round lead at Quail Hollow and has carded a 65 and a 66 in his last three PGA Championship first laps.

Back McIlroy on the Sportsbook
Back McIlroy on the Exchange

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Major stats ahead of this week's tournament at Quail Hollow

Andy Swales: "Unlike many venues, where the stats show that champions need to be swift out of the blocks in order to win the tournament, Quail Hollow is littered with players who have held aloft the trophy despite posting 'leisurely' opening rounds.

"Three of Rory McIlroy's four successes at the course were achieved in this manner and, in 2021, he even battled back to win after ending the opening round in a tie-for-73rd (eight strokes adrift).

"Another winner to recover from a poor first day at Quail was Justin Thomas who emerged victorious in the 2017 PGA Championship. The American was tied-44th after an opening day 73."

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Course details and current form stats

Andy Swales: "Famous architect Tom Fazio has been involved in a number of Quail renovations, most recently in 2016 when he prepared the course for the following year's PGA Championship. And, eight years on from Justin Thomas's first major title, it will now stage a second PGA Championship later this week.

"The biggest structural change occurred 11 years ago, when all 18 putting surfaces were upgraded from Bentgrass to Bermuda ahead of the Wells Fargo event of 2014. For this week's tournament, the greenkeepers at Quail Hollow have over-seeded the greens with Poa trivialis.

"Laid out 600 feet above sea level, Quail Hollow is a testing tree-lined layout which has water in play on five holes. The average fairway width for this week's PGA Championship will be 28 yards.

"In 2022, the course was selected to stage the Presidents Cup which was held during September of that year. Although Quail has generally favoured the bigger hitters, good course management remains an important attribute at this tricky venue."

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Best birdie machines to use for Betfair's free bet offer

Paul Higham: "There are so many storylines that will make it a thrilling week at Quail Hollow, and to get it off to a great start you can get free bets for every birdie your win-only selection makes in the first round of the US PGA Championship. 

"What it means is that if you place a £5 bet or more in our Birdie Bonus market, each time the player you back to win the Wanamaker Trophy picks up a shot at any hole during the first round you'll land a £1 free bet.  Click here for all the information on this great offer.

"Now the big question is, who should you back? Who are the birdie machines at the US PGA Championship?

"Bryson DeChambeau missed the 2022 event but he's been pretty consistent in the other four US PGA Championships, even though he missed out a bit on the birdie fest last year. Soft conditions should suit his length at Quail Hollow too so he'll be a popular shout for the Birdie Bonus given his average."

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Five to watch in Betfair's Birdie Bonus market

Dave Tindall: "As Quail Hollow stages a regular Tour event, it's worth checking out R1 performances in the Wells Fargo as well as looking at how well players start in this event and other Majors. Xander Schauffele, the defending US PGA champion, pops up in all searches.

"He fired a stunning first-round 62 in last year's US PGA, recording nine birdies on Thursday, while he also set the pace after 18 holes of the 2024 Wells Fargo with six birdies and an eagle securing a 64. Schauffele also set off with a record-equalling 62 on day one of the 2023 US Open."

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Read The Punter's in-play US PGA Championship blog across all four days of the action at Quail Hollow

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