US PGA Championship 2025 Top 5 and Top 10 Tips: Now is the time for Niemann

• Joaquin Niemann can finally make his mark at this level

• Defending champ Xander Schauffele can post yet another Top 10

• Read Dave Tindall's 10-year trends piece here

• Free bets for birdies in our Birdie Bonus offer. T&Cs apply. Click here for more.

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Scottie Scheffler - World No.1 arrives on back of dominant win

Apart from the little matter of being the defending champion at Augusta, a fair chunk of the talk surrounding Scheffler last month was that he was teeing up at the US Masters without a win under his belt this year.

That's now changed - and then some. Scheffler romped to an eight-shot win at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson in his native Dallas at the start of May and this is his first start since then as he bids to bank a fifth top 10 in six US PGA starts.

The only real doubt is a lack of course form - so far. He hasn't played a strokeplay event at Quail Hollow before and, although taking part in the 2022 Presidents Cup here, Scheffler lost three of his four matches and tied the other. 

Last four events: 1-8-4-2
US PGA form: 8-2-MC-8-4
Quail Hollow form: -
Last 50 starts - Win: 20%, Top 5: 58%, Top 10: 76%

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Rory McIlroy - four-time Quail Hollow winner on a high

Rory should be bouncing this week. He has the weight of the world off his shoulders after finally winning the US Masters and a spring in his step due to being a four-time winner of the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow.

Despite not winning a Major between 2014 and 2025, Rory was still a top five and top 10 machine at this level. Between his 2014 US PGA win and 2025 Masters triumph, the Northern Irishman racked up 21 top 10s in the Majors, 11 of those doubling as top fives.

One slight surprise is that he hasn't had a US PGA top five since he won his second Wanamaker trophy in 2014 but the combination of his Augusta heroics and brilliant course form suggest that will change. Rory, who has three PGA Tour wins to his name this season, is just 2.265/4 for a Top 5 though.

Last four events: 7-12-1-5
US PGA form: 12-7-8-49-33-8-50-22-MC-17-1-8-1-64-3-3
Quail Hollow form: 1-47-1-8-16-22-4-1-8-10-2-MC-1
Last 50 starts - Win: 16%, Top 5: 44%, Top 10: 58%

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Bryson DeChambeau - big hitter ready to thrive again

Like Scheffler, DeChambeau was winless in 2025 when teeing it up at Augusta. He almost ended the mini-drought with victory at the US Masters itself but drifted back to fifth after briefly leading in the final round.  

Since then he's really come alive on the LIV Tour, finishing runner-up in Mexico and then posting a 'W' in Korea where all parts of his game looked good. 

Lengthy US PGA courses are right in DeChambeau's wheelhouse and in his last four starts in the year's second Major he's had a pair of fourths and a second place 12 months ago. The monster-hitting American is 3.5551/20 for another Top 5 this year.

Last four events: 1-2-5-5
US PGA form: 2-4-38-4-MC-MC-33
Quail Hollow form: 9-4-33-MC
Last 50 starts - Win: 8%, Top 5: 28%, Top 10: 50%

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Justin Thomas - JT has Major history at Quail Hollow

Thomas has already won a US PGA at Quail Hollow. It came back in 2017, although that event was played in August and on a much firmer course.

However, despite some dips in form since that breakthrough eight years ago, JT is playing some of his very best golf again and he arrives in North Carolina with a win (RBC Heritage) and a second (Truist Championship) on his last two starts.

Thomas won a second US PGA at Southern Hills in 2022 - also on a 7,500+ course like this one - while he's had two further top 10s in the event. Note that he also won four matches out of five when Quail Hollow hosted the 2022 Presidents Cup.

Last four events: 2-1-36-2
US PGA form: 8-65-1-MC-37-6-1-66-18
Quail Hollow form: 21-14-26-21-1-MC-7
Last 50 starts - Win: 2%, Top 5: 22%, Top 10: 36%

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Jon Rahm - Spaniard has some obvious negatives

Jon Rahm isn't at his best. And yet he's made the top 10 in all seven of his LIV starts this season, the latest a seventh in South Korea.

His only non-top 10 in that run was 14th in the US Masters where he got better each day after a poor start (75-71-70-69).

But, surprisingly, the Spaniard gets a negative tick for both course form and event form. He was only 58th here in the 2017 US PGA and missed the cut in his only start in the Wells Fargo (2021). It's been his worst Major of the four with an eighth in 2021 his only top 10 in the last six.  

Last four events: 7-4-14-9
US PGA form: MC-50-48-8-13-MC-4-58
Quail Hollow form: MC-58
Last 50 starts - Win: 10%, Top 5: 42%, Top 10: 70%

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Xander Schauffele - defending champ coming back to form

We're still really waiting for Schauffele to ignite in 2025 after he was forced to rest in the early months due to a rib injury.

But he's close. A closing 66 at the Valspar has sparked a run of four top 20s and the best of those was eighth at Augusta, highlighting what an elite performer he is in the Majors.

Schauffele finally won his first in this tournament last year and added a second soon after in The Open. As well as an outstanding haul of 16 top 10s in 31 Majors (eight are top fives), he's also finished runner-up at Quail Hollow in the last two editions of the Wells Fargo. 

Last four events: 11-18-8-12
US PGA form: 1-18-13-MC-10-16-35-MC
Quail Hollow form: 2-2-14-72-MC
Last 50 starts - Win: 6%, Top 5: 28%, Top 10: 50%

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Collin Morikawa - former champ may need a hot putter

Although he's not added to his two early Major wins in 2020 (this event) and 2021 (Open Championship), Morikawa still brings it at this level, either posting top 10s or just missing them. His last five starts in Majors read: 14-16-14-4-3.

Overall, he's racked up nine top 10s in his 21 Majors and seven of those were top fives, including the wins.

This could be a long course for him so perhaps Morikawa will need one of his big putting weeks to contend. Finishing ninth for SG: Putting when 17th in the Truist Championship on Sunday bodes well.

Last four events: 17-MC-54-14
US PGA form: 4-26-55-8-1
Quail Hollow form: 16-MC
Last 50 starts - Win: 4%, Top 5: 24%, Top 10: 30%

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Ludvig Aberg - Swede has shown Major pedigree

Majors are still very new to Aberg - this is just his sixth - but he's already shown plenty of promise with 2-7 in The Masters and 12th in last year's US Open after holding the halfway lead.

True, he missed the cut on his US PGA debut last year but his big hitting (27th DD) and strong driving (10th Off The Tee) suggest that he'll be suited to Quail Hollow.

There is, however, a concern about his current form due to modest putting and approach play. Despite a win at Torrey Pines earlier this season, four of his last five starts show a pair of missed cuts and two finishes outside the top 50. The positive take was that his one strong effort (seventh) in that run came at Augusta.

Last four events: 60-54-7-MC
US PGA form: MC
Quail Hollow form: -
Last 50 starts - Win: 6%, Top 5: 24%, Top 10: 36%

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Joaquin Niemann - Chilean way overdue a big Major show

It's copy and paste for Niemann at the start of every Major it seems. He's regarded as a good bet by many this week and yet there's an obvious hole in his chances as the Chilean has never had a top 10 in 23 starts in the Majors.

There are plenty of hints though. He's made the cut in 15 of his last 17 Majors and his prodigious length off the tee will help him at a course where he improved his finish each time when playing the Wells Fargo from 2018 to 2021. 

Niemann gets so many eyes on him in Majors due to his continued excellence on LIV. He's won three of his last seven events (Adelaide, Singapore and Mexico) and the Data Golf world rankings which take into account LIV results rank him the ninth best player in the world.

Last four events: 20-1-29-33
US PGA form: 39-MC-23-30-MC-MC-71
Quail Hollow form: 18-38-MC
Last 50 starts - Win: 14%, Top 5: 34%, Top 10: 54%

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Patrick Cantlay - Major record still full of holes

Cantlay's record in the Majors isn't quite at Niemann levels in terms of disappointment but he's way, way underperformed for a player of his ability.

He's teed it up in 32 and has managed just five top 10s (two of those top fives) despite making 28 cuts. It's baffling given his overall skillset.

A fourth place in last week's Truist Championship will raise expectations again but perhaps it's a warning sign that 36th in the US Masters is actually his worst result so far this season.

Last four events: 4-13-36-33
US PGA form: 53-9-MC-23-43-3-27-33
Quail Hollow form: 29-21-MC-33
Last 50 starts - Win: 0%, Top 5: 28%, Top 10: 34%

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Summary

I'm slightly surprising myself but surely Joaquin Niemann gets his first Major Top 10 very soon and, after resisting the urge to back him in the past, I'm going to pull the trigger now.

He's shown promise on this course with 18th last time and that was four years ago. He's come on leaps and bounds since and it really does look a good fit for him.

Back Niemann to get that elusive first Top 10 at this level at 4.47/2 on the Exchange.

The most reliable claims for a Top 10 come from defending champion Xander Schauffele.

He's finished second the last two times he's played Quail Hollow, is getting back into a groove again and over his career has a Top 10 record in the Majors over 50% (16 from 31).

Schauffele is 3.3512/5 for another and that's well worth a punt.

Niemann and Schauffele are 7.87/1 and 5.14/1 respectively for a Top 5. My preferred choice in that market would be Bryson DeChambeau at 3.5551/20.

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Now read US PGA Championship 2025: Dave Tindall's each-way picks from 16/1 to 150/1

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