US PGA Championship

US PGA Championship 2025: Dave Tindall's each-way picks from 16/1 to 150/1

Quail Hollow 18th green
Justin Thomas is Dave's headline pick at this week's US PGA Championship

The second Major of the year heads to North Carolina and Dave Tindall has three each-way tips for the action at Quail Hollow...


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US PGA Championship history

Quail Hollow is very familiar to golf punters having been the host couse for the Wells Fargo Championship for many years.

It also staged this event in 2017 but that was in its old August slot when players encountered different conditions.

However, with the US PGA shifting to a May date, results from the Wells Fargo - also held at this time of year - should, in theory, match better.

Which is good news for Rory McIlroy, who has won the Wells Fargo at Quail Hollow no less than four times - all in May.

That stellar course form along with him ending his 11-year wait for a Major by landing last month's US Masters in thrilling circumstances means he's now pushing Scottie Scheffler for favouritism.

Scheffler is just about holding on at the top at 4/15.00 but McIlroy is right on his heels at 9/25.50. It's back to Bryson DeChambeau at 12/113.00 and all three of those posted a win in April so come in hot.

For this week's event, Quail Hollow will play as a par 71 measuring a hefty 7,626 yards.

The George Cobb design (1961), which underwent a Tom Fazio revamp in 1997, has overseeded Bermuda greens that run fast. The overseed is important here; it should make for purer putting and, for reference, the 2024 edition here also had them.

This event has typically been good for big hitters and it's hard to see why it would be any different on this course.

On the stats, an all-round game is required.

McIlroy was in the top 10 for all the main Strokes Gained categories when winning the Wells Fargo here in 2024 while Wyndham Clark was in the top three for Approach, Tee To Green and Putting when winning in 2023.

Also note that the last nine winners of this event have all been Americans.


Justin Thomas (10 Places) @ 16/117.00

I'll be clear from the off: I think there is every chance that the winner comes from the very top of the market - not ideal for an each-way preview like this.

McIlroy has a massive chance but so does DeChambeau. However, the latter is my trends pick for this Major so I'm happy to have him covered that way.

Scheffler must also have a golden chance of a podium finish but I rate McIlroy and DeChambeau slightly more likelier candidates to battle it out for gold and silver given that they smash the ball further.

To beat the top three in the betting will need a player with lots and lots in his favour - and there may just be one in the form of Justin Thomas.

JT never lives up to his pre-tournament billing at Augusta (one top 10, an eighth, in an April Masters)  but it's a totally different story in this event.

He's won it twice and, of course, the first came here at Quail Hollow in 2017. The second was three years ago at Southern Hills. Both were on courses over 7,500 yards.

Thomas also scored four points out of five at Quail Hollow in the 2022 Presidents Cup while he hasn't been worse than 26th in his last four starts here in the Wells Fargo.

That's the background but now for his current form which is right at the top of the pile.

In his last two starts, Thomas has a win at the RBC Heritage and a tied second in last week's Truist Championship.

"Over a long career, you go in runs. I know that, both good and bad. I've gone a couple stretches there where I feel like I've kind of won five, six, seven times in 30, 35 events," he said last week when reflecting on the win drought he ended at Hilton Head.

Now is a great time to back him for a US PGA treble and perhaps the final piece of the jigsaw is his putting.

Thomas, who is 5th for both Approach and Tee To Green this season, ranks 23rd in SG: Putting. What a contrast that is to 2024 when he was one of worst putters on tour at 174th.

The problem for JT is that Rory is 6th for SG: Putting and Scheffler 22nd. That shows how hard it will be to beat both.

But Thomas, whose father was a PGA pro, may just have the gods in his favour in this event.

Goodness knows how he got over the line in front in 2022 and if he can outputt his big rivals, a third win beckons.

He's 20/121.00 for 6 Places and 16/117.00 for 10 so I'll take the latter.


Corey Conners (8 Places) @ 50/151.00

A bet on Corey Conners does, to be honest, feel very each-way as I'm not sure he can separate himself from the rest of this field.

But 50/151.00 (8 Places) will produce a healthy e.w. return if he can get in amongst it, and joining the dots makes his face appear quite sharply.

Conners is an excellent driver of the ball (18th SG: Off The Tee) and that should do a fair chunk of the heavy lifting this week.

He's 23rd Tee To Green, 25th SG: Total and even 90th in Putting is a definite uptick on the past and puts him better than tour average this season.

And what an excellent campaign he's had.

The Canadian started off with a top five at The Sentry and from the beginning of March he's had finishes of third, sixth, eighth (twice) and 11th at last week's Truist.

One of those eighths - the requirement with this bet - came at the US Masters to show he can make a mark in the majors.

In fact, that was his fourth top 10 in the last six Masters while last year he posted ninth in the US Open.

As for his record in this event he has a 12th, a 17th and a 26th in three of the last four.

He didn't play the 2017 US PGA at Quail Hollow but he's done well in recent starts here in the Wells Fargo Championship.

Conners registered 8th (2023) and 13th (2024) in the last two and has made all four cuts. 

Stats-wise, he's ranked in the top 20 for Off The Tee in the last three editions at Quail Hollow while his Approach rankings in those four Wells Fargo appearances read 2-13-7-2. He's been 5th and 7th Tee To Green in the latest two.

Add in his improved putting this year and the ingredients are there for a challenge.

One obvious question is that he just isn't long enough. 

But these are Conners' finishes on his last six starts on courses measuring over 7,500 yards: 8-24-5-6-9-20. 

That's a welcome surprise and I really do like his each-way claims.


Kurt Kitayama (12 Places) @ 150/1151.00

I did fancy Patrick Reed for the final spot.

He gave us a nice each-way return when solo third in the US Masters, was runner-up in the 2017 US PGA here and has a sixth and an eighth in two of his last three starts in the Wells Fargo.

The negative would be that those good course performances were four years ago and more and I would prefer a genuine monster hitter on my team.

So step forward Kurt Kitayama.

The 32-year-was a slightly surprise tied fourth in this event at Oak Hill in 2023 while he fired four good rounds at Valhalla last year for 26th. 

Those are his two best finishes at this level so the PGA Championship is the Major he looks best suited to.

He jumps up the queue here thanks to a fifth place on a 7,569-yard course in the CJ Cup Byron Nelson on his latest start.

Kitayama ranked 19th for both Off The Tee and Approach in that Texas event a couple of weeks ago as well as 8th Tee To Green.

Ranked 6th for Driving Distance this season and 10th Off The Tee, he's genuinely one of the longest drivers in the field and rain in the build-up could make the course play even longer.

A win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational two years ago showed he could beat an elite field and although winning this would be a massive shock, there's still some hefty rewards to be had in the each-way market.

I'll turn to the one paying 12 places where Kitayama is still an attractive 150/1151.00. He's 200s for eight places.


Now read more golf previews and tips here


 

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