Zurich Classic of New Orleans: Three pairs picked at between 37/1 and 84/1

• Rory and Shane defend in New Orleans

• Look to last week for longshots

• Three backed including Straka and Garnett at a generous 84/185.00

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Tournament History

The Zurich Classic of New Orleans dates all the way back to 1938 and except for the 2020 edition, when it was one of the events lost to the pandemic, it's been an annual PGA Tour stop since 1958.

The likes of Byron Nelson, Gary Player, Jack Nicklaus, Tom Watson (twice) and Seve, to name but five former champions, have all won the title so it has plenty of history but after a number of years where the strength of the fields had been waning, there was a dramatic change to the format in 2017 when the event changed from being an ordinary stroke play tournament to a team event and it did the trick. 

Many of the world's best have really taken to the new format and the field is stronger again this year with some notable pairings.

The US Masters champ, Rory McIlroy, and his partner, Shane Lowry, are back to defend the title, along with the Fitzpatrick brothers and the Hojgaard twins. It's a fun and relaxing week for the pros. 

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Format

The 72-hole stroke play tournament features four-ball (best ball) during the first and third rounds and foursomes (alternate shot) during the second and fourth rounds.

The starting field consists of 80 teams (160 players) with the low 33 teams and ties after 36 holes making the cut.

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Venue

TPC Louisiana, Avondale, Louisiana

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Course Details

Par 72 -7,425 yards 

TPC Louisiana made its event debut in 2005 but just a year later the tournament returned to its old venue, English Turn, after Hurricane Katrina devastated this venue. The event returned in 2007, and it's been played here ever since. 

TPC Louisiana, like Hilton Head last week, is a Bermuda grass Pete Dye design. Built on 250 acres of former swamp land, the course has 71 bunkers and 20 acres of the site are covered in sand! Water is in play on eight holes and the average-sized greens usually run at around 12 on the stimpmeter.

It's an easy course for the pros and in rain-softened conditions in 2015, Justin Rose won with a 22-under-par total. Under the new format, the five winning pairs have all reached at least 20-under-par (see below).

The 2023 winners, Davis Riley and Nick Hardy, got it to -30, and the 2022 winners, Schauffele and Cantlay, opened the event with a 59 on Thursday! 

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 12:30 on Thursday

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Pairs Format Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2017 - Jonas Blixt and Cameron Smith -27 (Playoff) 120.0119/1
2018 - Billy Horschel and Scott Piercy -22 65.064/1
2019 - Jon Rahm and Ryan Palmer -26 19.018/1
2020 - Event Cancelled
2021 - Marc Leishman and Cameron Smith -20 (Playoff) 13.012/1
2022 - Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay -29 12.011/1
2023 - Nick Harding and David Riley -30 70.069/1
2024 - Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry -25 (Playoff) 9.89/1

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What Will it Take to Win the Zurich Classic?

There have been no stats produced since the format change, but we can look back to the old format for statistical clues.

What you do off the tee here is irrelevant. The fairways are generous but that doesn't immediately hand the initiative to the big hitters. Brian Stuard, who won the final individual edition in 2016, ranked only 79^th for Driving Distance and the average DD ranking for the previous ten course winners was 27.1.

The average Driving Accuracy ranking for the 11 course winners prior to the format change was 37.45.

Greens In Regulation was a fairly important stat, with seven of the 11 winners ranking inside the top-ten for GIR but Stuard managed to get the job done in 2016 ranking only 73^rd. He owed his success to a great short game and a red-hot putter.

Stuard ranked first for Scrambling, Sand Saves, Putting Average, Putts Per Green in Regulation and for Strokes Gained Putting and he made every single putt (more than 40) inside ten feet. The 2015 winner, Justin Rose, also ranked number one for Putting Average and six of the last seven winners before the format change ranked inside the top ten for that stat.

Prior to his move to LIV, Cameron Smith won the title with two different partners, and he's famed for his flat-stick prowess.

It's a low scoring event around a generous layout so it's all about holing plenty of putts.

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Austin Country Club form a big plus

Form at events staged at other Pete Dye courses is worth looking at but one tournament in particular looks well worth considering - the now defunct WGC Match Play.

The final seven editions of the WGC Match Play were staged at the Pete Dye designed Austin Country Club and its remarkable how many players have thrived at both events in such a short space of time.

Dustin Johnson, the 2017 winner of the Match Play, has only played here twice, missing the cut way back in 2008 and finishing only 43^rd in 2015, but the man he beat in the final, Jon Rahm, won here in 2019, alongside Ryan Palmer, and the other six Match Play winners all have strong course form here.

The 2016 Match Play winner, Jason Day, finished fourth and fifth in the last two individual events here, in 2015 and '16, the 2018 Match Play winner, Bubba Watson (who loves a Pete Dye design), won here in 2011.

The 2019 Match Play champ, Kevin Kisner, was beaten in a playoff in this event, alongside Scott Brown, in 2017, the 2021 WGC Match Play winner, Billy Horschel, has won here twice - once in the old format in 2013 and also alongside Scott Piercy in 2018, the 2022 Match Play winner, Scottie Scheffler, finished eighth alongside Bubba Watson in 2021, and the final Match Play winner, Sam Burns, has finished fourth, second and 11^th with Horschel as his partner in the last three editions.

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Look to last week for longshots

The inaugural edition in this format was won by outsiders, Jonas Blixt and Cam Smith, but they're the only winning pairing to go off at a triple-figure price and with the exception of the 2023 result, when pre-event  70.069/1 chances, Nick Harding and Davis Riley, took the title, the price of the winners has come down year on year and it's not been a great event for outsiders.

If there is to be a longshot pairing taking the title though, one or both of them may well have played last week in the Corales Puntacana Championship in the Dominican Republic as it was striking how many low profile players, who have played well at both the Puerto Rico Open and the Corales, contended last year.

The 2013 Puerto Rico Open winner, Scott Brown lost a playoff alongside Kevin Kisner on the first occasion that the Zurich Classic was played as a pairs event and Puerto Rico Open winners, Chesson Hadley, Martin Trainer, Ryan Brehm and Nico Echavarria all contended at last year's renewal.

Trainer's partner, Chad Ramey, won the Corales Puntacana Championship three years ago and last year's Corales winner, Billy Horschel, has won in New Orleans twice.

Horschel won on his own back in 2013 before winning the tournament as a pairs event alongside Scott Piercy in 2018.

The tournament tends to go to a well-fancied pair but 1000.0999/1 chances Patrick Fairburn and Zac Blair and 410.0409/1 chances, shots, Trainer and Ramey, traded at odds-on in-running last year so a longshot pairing taking the title is perfectly possible.

Finding a pair with form in Puerto Rico and/or the Dominican Republic (where the Corales is staged) might be a good way to play the event.

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Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2017 - Jonas Blixt and Cameron Smith - led by four 1.68/13
2018 - Billy Horschel and Scott Piercy - tied fifth, trailing by three 16.015/1
2019 - Jon Rahm and Ryan Palmer - tied for the lead 2.8615/8
2020 - Event Cancelled
2021 - Marc Leishman and Cameron Smith - tied second and one off the lead 4.47/2
2022 - Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay - led by five 1.21/5
2023 - Nick Harding and David Riley - tied third and two back 15.014/1
2024 - Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry - tied third and two back 3.7511/4

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In-Play Tactics

Stuard was the ninth winner in 11 years to be in front with a round to go in the old format and three of the seven winning pairs have been in front through 54 holes. Horschel and Piercy won from three shots back and tied fifth with a round to go in 2018, but they were helped greatly by those ahead of them.

The 2021 winners were only one off the lead through 54 holes, the 2022 victors were five in front, and last two winning pairs have trailed by only two so this is not a place to play catch up on a Sunday.

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Three pairs picked

I'm happy to swerve the defending champions and favourites, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, at less than half the price that they went off at 12 months ago.

Rory has been home to Northern Ireland after his US Masters victory and, while he'll be on top of the world after completing the career Grand Slam, we're all in the dark as to his wellbeing. A slow start on return wouldn't be a surprise.

I'm in complete agreement with Dave Tindall over the chances of Max Greyserman and Nico Echavarria. As Dave highlights, both are much higher ranked players than they were when they finished fourth last year and they get an extra tick from me because of their form in Puerto Rico (see above).

Echavarria won the Puerto Rico Open in 2023 and Greyserman finished 15^th there last year, having been tied for the lead after round one on his only visit.

I'm sticking with last week's Corales Puntacana winner, Garrick Higgo, who alongside Ryan Fox, finished alongside Greyserman and Echavarria in tied fourth last year.

Fox has been disappointing over the last couple of weeks, but he was 15^th at the Houston Open at the end of March, having sat third with a round to go, so he could very easily bounce back to form here again.

The Kiwi had uninspiring form figures reading MC-MC-79-MC-39 12 months ago.

Higgo has a habit of holding his form quite nicely and he clearly likes it here given he was also fourth in the event in 2022 when playing alongside fellow South African, Branden Grace.

And finally, I was very surprised to be able to back Sepp Straka and Brice Garnett at as high as 85.084/1!

The world number 16, Straka, signed off last week's RBC Heritage with back-to-back 67s to climb up to a tie for 13^th, after a very slow start and Garnett has won both the Puerto Rico Open and the Corales Puntacana Championship.

The pair finished tied for 11^th 12 months ago and Garnet finished fourth in 2018 when playing alongside Chesson Hadley - another former winner of the Puerto Rico Open.

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*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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