US PGA Championship 2025: 10-year trends point to...

• Our golf betting expert sifts through the key stats ahead of Quail Hollow

• Points system ranks those likeliest to contend

• Will it be a young gun or an old head at 2025's second Major? Read on to find out...

• Choose your places on each-way bets at the US PGA with the Betfair Sportsbook

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The good news: Rory McIlroy finished joint-top of my Masters 10-year trends last month and he went on to prevail in one of the most dramatic finishes in Augusta history.

The bad news: I actually went with the other joint-top scorer, Russell Henley, as my official pick and he missed the cut!

Perhaps there's a lesson there. Don't always take it all too literally. Instead, use this feature to add support to your own picks.

That said, there is something quite compelling about seeing who the numbers spit out and arriving on one name.

And, before you read on, there is no tie-breaker in this preview. One player comes out ahead of the rest.

Right, time to crack on and list the categories involved for the 2025 US PGA at Quail Hollow.

They are: Age, Nationality, World Ranking, Winning Form, Current Form, US PGAs Played, Past US PGA Performance, Recent Major Form and Course Fit.

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Age - Young players fare best

Let's use the opening category to remind ourselves of the points scoring system. The key is frequency and I'll award points based on how often each age group won across the last 10 editions of the US PGA. So as six 20-somethings won, anyone in their 20s this year is awarded 6pts. Here's the allocation.

In their 20s = 6pts
In their 30 = 3pts
In their 40s = 0pts
In their 50s = 1pt

Xander Schauffele was 30 when lifting the giant Wanamaker trophy last year but twenty-somethings still have by far the best record.

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Nationality - Home players have dominated

This has been an excellent tournament for American players and Schauffele added to it last year. 

Is it because your typical PGA course is like many of the venues American players grew up on. Do overseas players prize this Major a little less?

Regardless, the last nine winners were all U.S. golfers, with Aussie Jason Day the only non American champion in the last decade.

American = 9pts
European/Rest of World = 1pt

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World Ranking - A tournament for the elite

Schauffele was ranked World No.3 ahead of his US PGA win last year and that again showed how this is an event won by elite performer. 

Phil Mickelson was down at 116th when scoring his unlikely triumph in 2021 but seven of the last 10 US PGA champions were ranked in the world's top 15. 

As is the norm now with these previews, I'll use the Datagolf rankings as they allocate points to LIV players and are a fairer reflection of class and ability.

Ranked 1-20 in Datagolf rankings = 7pts
Ranked 21 or higher = 3pts

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Winning Form - Trophies give confidence

Helped by its previous August date, this used to be an excellent event for players who had already posted a win that same year. But it's still a stat worth respecting in the new slot.

Scottie Scheffler now has one after his runaway victory at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson last week so he scores the highest mark in this section.

Overall, six of the last 10 champions had already banked some silverware in the season of their US PGA triumph. Three others, including Schauffele last year, had posted at least a top four.

Won this season = 6pts
Best of 2nd to 4th this season = 3pts
Top 20 this season = 1pt

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Current Form - Top 20s a positive pointer

There's a very big form trend in this event and it's a simple one: a strong performance last time out. Phil Mickelson bucked it three years ago but eight of the last 10 champions had posted a top 20 on their previous start.

Schauffele continued the trend by going into last year's US PGA on the back of a runners-up finish at the Wells Fargo Championship a week earlier.

Top 20 on previous start = 8pts
No top 20 on previous start = 2pts

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US PGAs Played - 2-6 is the bracket to focus on

Collin Morikawa won on his US PGA debut in 2020, as did Keegan Bradley in 2011 although he's now fallen out of the study period (2015-2024). That's very different to the US Masters where no first-timer has won since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 although it's still a rare feat to win the US PGA first time up.

Looking at history, there is definitely a sweet spot as seven of the last 10 US PGA winners had played in the event from two to seven times inclusive.

Schauffele was appearing in his seventh US PGA last year.

Played from two to seven previous PGAs = 7pts
Played in under two or over seven previous PGAs = 3pts

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Past US PGA Performance - Look for event top 10

A strong previous performance in the event is clearly a very good pointer as eight of the last 10 winners had already posted a US PGA top 10.

This is bad news again for Joaquin Niemman, who has yet to have a top 10 in any Major.

Top 10 in a previous PGA = 8pts
No top 20 in a previous PGA = 2pts

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Recent Major Form - Top 10 in previous two

US PGA winners rarely come out of thin air. Often they've telegraphed their victory with a strong performance in a very recent Major.

The stats show that seven of the last 10 winners had posted a top 10 in one the previous two Majors - nowadays the US Masters and the previous summer's Open Championship.

Schauffele added to the list last year having finished eighth at the US Masters just over a month before landing this trophy.

Top 10 in one of previous two majors = 7pts
No top 10 in one of previous two majors = 3pts

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Course Fit - Big hitters preferred

Most US PGA courses suit the longer hitters and that's reflected in the fact that seven of the last 10 US PGA winners ranked in the top 35 for Driving Distance in the season of their victory. Schauffele was 33rd for DD in 2024.

That should be the case again at Quail Hollow which is a par 71 measuring a hefty 7,626 yards.

So let's head to the PGA Tour's Driving Distance stats and give big hitters more points. LIV have their own stats too so anyone on those who averages over 307.1 yards (good for top 35 on the PGA Tour) gets maximum points. That's basically the top 26 players in the LIV DD charts.

Ranked 1-35 in DD on PGA Tour or 1-26 on LIV = 7pts
Ranked 31-100 in DD on PGA Tour or 27-40 on LIV = 2pts
Ranked 101 or higher in DD on PGA Tour or 41 or above on LIV = 1pt

As we're at a familiar course, I did also look at whether the last 10 winners had previous form on the venues where they triumphed.

This is obviously relevant to Rory McIlroy, a four-time winner at Quail Hollow.

There wasn't much to go on really. Only five of the 10 winners had played before at the scene of their US PGA win. Their best previous finishes in different events at the same course were 7th, 10th, 70th, 36th and 70th.

That's all nine categories complete. So...

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The Top Points Scorers

The scores are in and it's out of 65...

62 Bryson DeChambeau
60 Scottie Scheffler
52 Collin Morikawa
50 Rory McIlroy
49 Justin Thomas
48 Xander Schauffele
47 Jon Rahm, Ludvig Aberg, Viktor Hovland, Brooks Koepka, Charles Howell III

It's Bryson!

There's a potential slight problem in that current form is based on results in this week's Truist Championship and we don't know them yet.

I've basically presumed that all the top players will bank a top 20 and score 8pts. 

Some won't, but the key is that DeChambeau and Scheffler are already guaranteed 8pts as they aren't playing this week.

Interestingly, both have pulled some way clear of the field due to first wins of the season last week, Scheffler landing the CJ Cup Byron Nelson and DeChambeau capturing the LIV Golf Korea.

It means no-one can catch them and although there may be a little bit of a reshuffle below, the two Americans dominate these trends.

DeChambeau edges Scheffler due to getting the top mark for Driving Distance. Scheffler is above average but not in the top bracket and perhaps that could make the difference at lengthy Quail Hollow.

US Open champ DeChambeau has finished ninth and fourth on his last two starts at Quail Hollow so that adds some confidence and he's this year's official trends pick.

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