US Masters 2025: 10-year trends point to...

• Dave sifts through the key Masters stats for the 2025 edition

• Points system ranks those likeliest to contend at Augusta

• Will a very obvious name come out on top? Read on to find out...

• Read all about the Birdie Bonus free bet offer in our explainer

• Read Matt Cooper's Masters profiles of the top 50 plays at Augusta

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The annual US Masters 10-year trends piece is my favourite column to write.

As the only one of the four Majors to be played on the same course, it lends itself to reoccuring patterns and repeat results.

Looking at recent editions, it's been close but no cigar in terms of locating the winner.

Rory McIlroy was the trends pick in 2022 and he finished runner-up having been available at 20.019/1 on the Betfair Exchange when the trends preview went out the week before.

Jon Rahm would have been ranked first (instead of joint sixth) in the 2023 trends but for his rather unlikely omission from one of the key categories. He'd scored top marks in nine of the other 10.

Scottie Scheffler was ranked third ahead of his win last year but would have been top had he taken one more shot at Augusta in 2023. 

Scheffler 9/25.50, McIlroy 13/27.50 and Rahm 16/117.00 are three of the top four in the betting this year but will they come out as the top performers on the trends?

Here are the categories. There are 10 and - drama alert - they're completed by a tie-breaker!

They are: Age, World Ranking, Masters Appearances, Best Masters Finish, The Game For Augusta, Defending Champion, Recent Form, Winning Form, Recent Major Form and Last Year's Finish.

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Masters Trend #1 - Age - Good for the 20-somethings

Regular readers will know that points are awarded based on how often something has happened over the last 10 years at Augusta.

Scheffler was 27 when he won last year. He became the seventh 20-something in the last decade to triumph, so anyone in their 20s this year is awarded 7pts. 

Just two of the last 10 winners were in their 30s so thirtysomethings teeing it up this year score 2pts. Tiger Woods was 43 when scoring his remarkable 2019 win so the 40+ veterans get a point. Here's the allocation.

In their 20s: 7pts
In their 30: 2pts
In their 40s: 1pt

Note, there aren't actually that many of the leading lights in their 20s anymore. Rahm is 30, Schauffele, DeChambeau and Thomas 31, Matsuyama 33, Fleetwood and Koepka 34 and McIlroy 35.

Masters Trend #2 - World Ranking - The higher the better

In this preview last year, I rather bemoaned the fact that the world rankings were now skewed due to LIV players not picking up any points for performances on their tour.

The penny dropped that I'd be better off using Datagolf rankings which do take into account LIV tournaments so I'll use those this year. 

Class definitely tells at Augusta National and all of the last 10 winners were ranked in the world's top 30 and, more specifically, eight of those sat in the top 20.

Using frequency to guide us again, that gives a fairly straightforward points allocation.

1-20 in the Datagolf rankings  = 8pts
21-30 in the Datagolf rankings = 2pts

Masters Trend #3 - Appearances - Augusta experience valuable

Ludvig Aberg threatened to buck one of the best-known Masters trends last year.

No first-timer has won at Augusta since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 but the Swede came close on debut before finishing runner-up.

However, in the end Scheffler won the green jacket and that came on his fifth start at Augusta.

It suggests experience is still worth its weight in gold here and eight of the last 10 winners had played in at least three Masters.

Jordan Spieth (2015) and Danny Willett (2016) both won on the back of just a single appearance so it's possible although rare to win so soon.

Played in 3 or more Masters = 8pts
Played in 1 or 2 Masters = 2pts
Played in 0 Masters = 0pts

Masters Trend #4 - Best Masters Finish - Top five desirable

Masters winners very rarely come from nowhere. Normally, they've telegraphed their ability to tackle Augusta National for 72 holes with a strong previous finish.

How strong? Well, seven of the last 10 champions had posted a previous top five.

As for the three players in the last decade who hadn't delivered a previous top five, two had managed a top 25 and one other (Danny Willett) had a best of 38th.

Previous Top 5 = 7pts
Previous best of 6th-25th = 2pts
Previous best of 26th-40th = 1pt

Masters Trend #5 - The Game For Augusta - Evidence of all-round prowess

This was a new category last year and involved crunching a lot of traditional stats (we've not got enough Strokes Gained data yet over a 10-year period).

The question I posed was 'what does a potential Masters winner need to do well to triumph on this unique layout?' Was it smashing it long, being a brilliant iron player or a wizard around the greens?

In the end, the answer was just about everything and I used Bubba Watson to highlight the fact that being a one-trick pony simply isn't enough.

Watson didn't win the Masters in 2012 and 2014 just because he hit it miles; he also ranked in the top 12 for Putting Average in those two winning years and was 5th and 15th respectively for Scrambling.

But, crucially, he'd already shown he could handle the super-fast greens of Augusta National by ranking in the top 20 for Putting Average in two of his first three starts there (2008 and 2011).

The key point to note is that the vast majority of recent winners had shown they had the game for Augusta by showing up well in the various statistical categories in previous appearances.

Here's how past Masters champs had shaped up on the traditional stats before slipping their arms into the green jacket.

Driving Distance: eight of 10 had previously recorded a top 20 in this category
Driving Accuracy: eight of 10 had been in the top 20 for DA in a previous visit
Greens In Regulation: eight of last 10 had ranked 12th or better for GIR before
Scrambling: eight of 10 had ended a previous Masters in the top 20 for Scr
Putting Average: seven of last 10 had ranked 20th or higher for PA at Augusta
Ball-Striking: eight of 10 had previously ranked in the top 10 in this category

Looking at the last 10 champions, eight had ticked off at least five of those six categories before winning. So, for example, before winning in 2021, Hideki Matsuyama had shown his Augusta suitability by recording a previous best of 7th in DD, 15th in DA, 6th in GIR, 4th in Scr, 4th in PA and 6th in Ball-Striking.

He'd obviously recorded those personal bests across various Masters but, over that time, Matsuyama had shown that he had all the skills to be a green jacket winner.

Previously ticked five or more of the above categories (i.e. finished in top 20 for Driving Distance, Driving Accuracy and Putting Average, top 12 for Greens In Regulation and top 10 for Ball-Striking) = 8pts

Ticked off between 1 and 4 of above list = 2pts

Masters Trend #6 - Defending Champion - Back-to-back wins rare

Scottie Scheffler was 10th when defending the green jacket in 2023. It seems fairly modest but, actually, that was one of the better efforts over the last 10 years or more.

Rahm was 45th when attempting to go back-to-back in 2023 while, in the last 10 years, Dustin Johnson, Sergio Garcia and Danny Willett all missed the cut a year on from their Masters triumphs.   

Are the extra media duties and kerfuffle involved in hosting the Champions Dinner to blame? Whatever it is, the stat is ingrained and, almost incredibly, only two defending champions since 2007 have managed a top 10, never mind a win.

Only the greats - Jack Nicklaus, Nick Faldo and Tiger Woods - have managed to win back-to-back Masters (Woods was the last in 2002) which means there hasn't been a successful defence in the last 10 years. Well, for over two decades in fact. Overall, the trend is bad news for Scottie Scheffler.

Defending champion = 0pts
Not the defending champion = 10pts

Masters Trend #7 - Recent Form - Strong current play a good pointer

Scheffler was in incredible form ahead of his Masters win last year.

In his previous three events - all in March - he'd won the Arnold Palmer Invitational, The Players Championship and finished runner-up in the Houston Open.

A look at the last 10 winners shows that seven had a top 12 in a strokeplay event in the same month of the US Masters or the previous month. That's usually March/April although in the delayed 2020 edition it was October/November.

Again, I'll need a LIV adjustment here as 12th in a LIV isn't as good. I'll make a top six in LIV the requirement for top marks while a LIV top 12 gets 3pts.

Top 12 finish in a PGA Tour event/Top six in a LIV tournament in same/previous month = 7pts
Best of 13th-30th in a PGA Tour event/Top 12 in a LIV tournament in March/April = 3pts

Masters Trend #8 - Winning Form - Confidence counts

Winning is the ultimate confidence boost ahead of taking on Augusta National and Scheffler proved that again last year with two victories in the build-up. Jon Rahm had actually reeled off three early-season wins before his 2023 triumph.  

As for other Msaters winners, Dustin Johnson, Sergio Garcia, Danny Willett, Jordan Spieth and Bubba Watson had all knocked off a victory before landing the big one at Augusta in April.

Add it up and seven of the last 10 Masters winners had already banked a win earlier in the season. Two of the other three had delivered a top five ahead of their win while all 10 had managed at least a top 15.

Posted a win in 2025 = 7pts
Had a best finish of 2nd to 5th in 2025 = 2pts
Had a best finish of 6th to 15th in 2025 = 1pt

Masters Trend #9 - Recent Major Form - Setting up a base camp

This has become a key category in all the Majors and it works particuarly well for Augusta.

The premise is that Masters winners don't come out of the blue; they've given us a warning with a big show in a recent-ish Major.

The stats show that nine of the last 10 Masters winners had posted a top six in a Major in one of the previous two seasons. Even someone we consider to be a slightly freakish winner, Danny Willett, had finished tied sixth at the 2015 Open just two Majors before his 2016 Masters triumph. The odd one out was Matsuyama whose best was 13th.

This is bad news for Justin Thomas who has gone off the boil in Majors since winning his second US PGA in 2022 and also for Joaquin Niemann, who has yet to post a top 10 in any Major.

Top Six in a Major in 2023 or 2024 = 9pts
7th-15th in a Major in 2023 or 2024 = 1pt

Masters Trend #10 - Last Year's Finish - Hunger a motivator

Finally, for an event that has numerous quirks to it, one real oddity is that winners tend not to have played well the year before.

Does the disappointment of not featuring on Sunday act as extra motivation 12 months later? Or, conversely, do those who played well in the previous Masters expect it'll go their way again and get caught out. Is it just the law of averages?

Whatever the reason, seven of the last 10 Masters winners hadn't cracked the top 10 the year before.

Ironically, this stat shot us in the foot last year. Had Scheffler not scraped a tied 10th in 2023 he'd have been our trends pick. So be it, let's just follow the overall pattern.

Played in but didn't make the top 10 in the 2024 Masters = 7pts
Made the top 10 in the 2024 Masters = 3pts

The Top Points Scorers

And now the exciting bit!!

The scores are in and, drumroll, these are the leading scorers in the rankings:

73 Rory McIlroy, Russell Henley
69 Collin Morikawa
68 Jon Rahm, Hideki Matsuyama, Shane Lowry
67 Viktor Hovland, Min Woo Lee
64 Tommy Fleetwood, Ludvig Aberg
63 Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele
62 Sepp Straka

It's a tie between McIlroy and Henley!

Both score 73 out of a possible 78, only dropping points in the age category as they're no longer in their 20s.

So, if you want a winner, let's introduce a tie-breaker.

Masters Trend #11 - Nationality - Home golfers fare best

This used to be a category but was dropped due to not producing a strong enough trend. But maybe there's just enough of one after Scheffler's win in 2024.

Americans have now won six of the last 10 Masters (including five of the last seven). That compares favourably to three Europeans and one International (Matsuyama).

American = 6pts
Europeans = 3pts
Rest of World = 1pt

And that means this year's trends winner - sorry Rory - is Russell Henley.

The American is 7th in the Datagolf rankings, is making his ninth Masters start, has a best of fourth (2023) and is a winner this season at the recent Arnold Palmer Invitational. 

Is he a Masters type? Well, Henley has played all four Majors in a season on eight occasions and his best finish came at the Masters in five of those. As well as his fourth he's posted 11th, 15th and 21st and hasn't finished worse than 38th in his last seven appearances.

In the various statistical categories he has Masters bests of 14th for Driving Distance, 1st for Driving Accuracy, 7th for GIR, 1st for Scrambling, 6th for Putting Average and 7th for Ball Striking.

Henley's last six starts on the PGA Tour read: 10-5-39-6-1-30. He's a form horse and, as a Georgia native and resident, what a story it would be. 

And just to complete the idea that the stars, trends and numbers are aligned, it's his birthday on Masters Saturday this year. He'll be 36, the outward par on each nine (okay I'm getting carried away now).

Henley offers great value at 50/151.00 on the Sportsbook (1/5 Odds, 6 Places) and he's our trends pick.

Note: Rahm could get to 73pts alongside Henley if winning LIV Miami this week.

However, as a non-American, like McIlroy, he'd lose the tie-breaker to Henley.

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Now read all the rest of our Masters tips, previews and guides

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