• Length crucial at Quail Hollow

• A recent win is a big plus

• Riviera form a great pointer

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Tournament History

The Professional Golfers Association of America was formed in February 1916, one month after wealthy store owner Rodman Wanamaker (the man the giant trophy played for this week is named after) had hosted a lunch meeting with the leading professionals of the age to set out the agenda for the formal organisation of the PGA.

In the October of 1916, the very first US PGA Championship was staged, in match play format. There was no tournament in 1917 or 1918 because of the First World War and the Second World War put pay to the 1943 renewal so this is the 107^th edition.

Previously staged in August, as the PGA Tour season ended, and after the other three majors had all been played, the US PGA Championship was very much viewed as the least prestigious of the four majors and the inception of the FedEx Cup Series in 2007 certainly didn't help.

To give the Championship the gravitas it deserved, a change to the PGA Tour schedule in 2019 moved it to May and it became the second major of the year.

The US PGA Championship returns to Quail Hollow this year, eight years after it first staged the championship.

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Venue

Quail Hollow Club, Charlotte, North Carolina.

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Course Details

Par 71 -7,558 yards 
Stroke Average in 2024 -71.73 

Designed by George Cobb in 1961 and built on a former dairy farm, Quail Hollow is a magnificent, long, classical course. 

Quail was the host course for the Kemper Open between 1969 and 1979 and it's been the venue for what's now called the Truist Championship since 2004. 

The course underwent an extensive renovation by Tom Fazio in 1997, well in advance of the first edition of the Truist, and further changes to the course were made in 2103 and 2014.

Yet more changes were made to the venue prior to it hosting the 2017 edition of the US PGA Championship -won by Justin Thomas- and the par four 16^th was lengthened again prior to Rory McIlroy winning his fourth Truist title at Quail last May. 

Quail measured 7,558 yards for last year's Truist, but it measured as long as 7,600 back in 2017 when hosting this event and it will measure 7,626 yards at this year's edition. 

The greens have recently been resurfaced with Tif Eagle Bermudagrass (formerly Champion Bermuda) and slopes have been softened to allow for more pin positions. 

The greens ran at as fast as 13.5 on the Stimpmeter at the Truist last May and the last three holes, known as the 'Green Mile', averaged a combined 1.09 over-par, so it's a strong finish. 

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 13:00 on Thursday.

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Last 12 US PGA Championship Winners with approx' Exchange Prices

2024 - Xander Schauffele -21 18.017/1
2023 - Brooks Koepka -9 28.027/1
2022 - Justin Thomas -5 (playoff) 21.020/1
2021 - Phil Mickelson -6 540.0539/1
2020 - Collin Morikawa -13 36.035/1
2019 - Brooks Koepka -8 12.011/1
2018 - Brooks Koepka -16 23.022/1
2017 - Justin Thomas -8 50.049/1 (Quail Hollow)
2016 - Jimmy Walker -14 220.0219/1
2015 - Jason Day -20 16.015/1
2014 - Rory McIlroy -16 6.86/1
2013 - Jason Dufner - 10 46.045/1

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Length is Going to be Crucial at Quail

Length off the tee has always been important at Quail Hollow.

Jim Furyk (2006) is the only winner of the Truist Championship here to have ranked worse than 28^th for Driving Distance, last year's winner, Rory McIlroy, ranked first for DD, and so too did Thomas when he won the US PGA here eight years ago.

As Dave Tindall highlights in his ten-year trends piece, seven of the last 10 US PGA winners ranked in the top 35 for Driving Distance in the season of their victory so this is already a great event for big hitters.

Given this year's venue, I'd think long and hard about backing someone that doesn't bomb it off the tee.

Greens In Regulation and Scrambling have been the other keys stats (Rory ranked second for those two metrics last year), although 10^th was the best any of the top six ranked for GIR in this event eight years ago and Thomas ranked only 30^th for Scrambling.

He did putt well though, ranking second for Putting Average and fourth for Strokes Gained: Putting, and that's often key here too, although Rory has won here several times without putting brilliantly. He ranked only 30^th for PA last year and 20^th in 2021.

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A Recent Win is a Big Plus

The US PGA Championship has moved around a bit in the calendar over the last few years but a previous win earlier in the season has been a very strong pointer historically with as many as 19 of the last 25 winners having already won an event prior to their success in the US PGA Championship.

It's not especially incredible that a major should be won by someone that had already tasted success earlier in the season, especially when it used to feature towards the end of the season, but it's worth highlighting that the list of 19 includes some very unlikely US PGA winners, with the likes of Y.E.Yang, Rich Beem, David Toms and Keegan Bradley all winning a tournament earlier in the season before they won what was then the final major of the year.

The defending champion, Xander Schauffele, hadn't won prior to last year's victory at Valhalla but he was bang in form. He'd finished second to Scottie Scheffler at the Players Championship, having led by a stroke with a round to go, and the week before securing his first major success, he's finished runner-up to Rory at this week's venue, having again led by one with 18 to play.

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Riviera Form a Great Pointer

Form at the usual host course for the Genesis Invitational - Riviera - crosses over with form at Quail very well indeed.

The Genesis was staged at Torrey Pines this year (won by Ludvig Aberg) after the wildfires in Pacific Palisades so this year's renewal can be disregarded but there are numerous examples of players performing nicely at Riviera and here at Quail.

When Max Homa won the Genesis Invitational at Riviera in 2021, he became the third winner of that event in six years to have also won the Truist Championship at Quail Hollow.

James Hahn and J.B Holmes have also won both events and all three were matched at a triple-figure price before the off at Riviera. Holmes was matched at a high of 400.0399/1, Hahn was an unconsidered 600.0599/1 chance in 2015 and Homa was matched at a high of 120.0119/1. 

Holmes was an 85.084/1 chance when he won at Quail 11 years ago, and Homa and Hahn won here having both been matched at 1000.0999/1 before the off so it's not like we're looking at three well-fancied players winning at both venues.

Homa finished second at Riviera in 2023, two years after he'd won there, and we've seen three men win the Genesis multiple times in the last 15 years. Phil Mickelson and Adam Scott have both won it twice and Bubba Watson three times. Mickelson and Watson have both finished second at Quail Hollow and Scott was third in 2006. It's already a very solid course correlation but it gets boosted again when we examine the result of this event back in 2017...

The winner, Thomas, traded at very long odds-on at Riviera when he led by four there with 18 to play back in 2019 and the 54-hole leader in this event here in 2017, Hideki Matsuyama, who traded at odds-on to take the title, won the Genesis Invitational at Riviera last year.

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Is There an Identikit Winner?

This used to be a great Championship for big outsiders and the three winners between 2001 and 2003 - David Toms, Rich Beem and Shaun Micheel - went off at huge prices. They were very hard to pick and had either Chris DiMarco or Justin Leonard won the 2004 playoff at Whistling Straits instead of Vijay Singh, the run of triple-figure priced winners would have stretched to four.

The 2009 champ, Y.E Yang, went off at around 330.0329/1, Keegan Bradley was matched at a whopping 650.0649/1 before the off 13 years ago, the 2016 winner, Jimmy Walker, was matched at a juicy 220.0219/1 and Mickelson was a whopping 540.0539/1 chance four years ago, but six of the last seven winners have been easy enough to spot.

Whether we get an outsider or not, the chances are they'll be a first-time major winner that's inside the world's top 50...

The last three majors have all been won by someone that had already bagged a major - Rory (US Masters), Schauffele (Open) and Bryson DeChambeau (US Open) but Schauffele won his first major in this event 12 months ago and 23 of the last 38 (61%) major championships have gone to a first-time major winner so don't be surprised if we get another but do expect them to feature highly in the Official World Rankings.

We need to bear in mind that the figures are a bit skewed since the inception of the LIV Golf Tour but since Keegan Bradley's win in this Championship 14 years ago, the 2021 shock winner, Phil Mickelson, is the only major champion that wasn't inside the world's top-50 but Lefty broke most trends and defied all sorts of logic when he won at the age of 51 - ranking 116^th in the world.

Looking at this event alone, 23 of the last 39 winners (59%) were breaking their major duck when they won and that's quite an impressive number given Mickelson's surprise second success, that Brooks Koepka has won three of the last seven US PGAs (his third, fourth and fifth major wins) and that Tiger Woods has won five of the last 39.

And finally, as Dave Tindall highlights in his 10-year trends piece, nine of the last ten winners have been American and seven of the last ten winners have been 30 or younger.

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Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four at Quail

There are a few years missing due to the Truist Championship being played elsewhere and the pandemic but here's the position and wxchange price of the last eight course winners with 18 holes to play.

2024 - Rory McIlroy - solo second 2.285/4
2023 - Wyndham Clark - led by two 2.226/5
2021 - Rory McIlroy - tied second, trailing by two 3.55/2
2019 - Max Homa - tied for the lead with two others 9.617/2
2018 - Jason Day - led by two 1.8810/11
2017 - Justin Thomas - tied four, trailing by two 6.411/2
2016 - James Hahn - tied third, trailing by two 16.015/1
2015 - Rory McIlroy led by four 1.132/15

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In-Play Tactics

Although none of the last eight course winners have been far away with 18 to play, only two of the eight were in front after 54 holes and we've seen a few winners come from miles back here.

Thomas was matched in running at 150.0149/1 eight years ago. He sat tied for 44^th and six back after round one and he was still five adrift at halfway before sitting tied for fourth with a round to go but that's up with the pace compared to a couple of Rory's wins here!

McIlroy started slowly here four years ago when he won the Truist title for a third time, sitting tied for 73^rd and eight off the lead, but he was only two back in fifth at halfway and that was a lot closer to the front than when he first took the title.

When he won here 15 years ago, having only just made the cut, he sat tied for 48th and nine off the lead at halfway and he still trailed by four after day three but incredibly, he went on to win by four!

A total of 23 men have led or co-led through three rounds at Quail Hollow but only eight have gone on to win and the prize for the worst Quail collapse goes to Sergio Garcia. He managed to give up a six-stroke 54-hole advantage here 20 years, so this is not an easy place to make the running.

The 14^th is the easiest par four on the track and the 15^th is a very straightforward par five but the last three holes have always played tough.

Known as the "Green Mile", they were the hardest three holes on the course at last year's Truist Championship, and they always average a combined over-par so bear that in mind if you're trading in-running.  Anyone safely in the house will have an advantage over someone tied with them with the Green Mile still to play.

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Who's Going to go off Favourite?

The four-time course winner and two-time US PGA Champion, Rory McIlroy, leapfrogged the world number one, Scottie Scheffler, at the head of the market when he finally claimed the career Grand Slam at Augusta last month and how he finishes off the Truist Championship in Philadelphia will be a determining factor on what price he begins this event at.

Rory's win in the US Masters was his third victory of 2025, following wins at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February and the Players Championship in March, whereas Scheffler has taken his time to get going.

Scheffler's start to the year was delayed by a month after he cut his hand on Christmas Day and it took him nine attempts before he got off the mark at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson last week, by a remarkable eight strokes.

He tied the PGA Tour's lowest 72-hole total, and he had the event all wrapped up with 18 holes to play.

It was an impressive performance, and it made sense for him to miss the Truist to prepare for this week, but I'm not convinced he's the man to beat.

This will be the first time he's played at Quail Hollow, so we're in the dark with regards to course form and he was a far more attractive proposition in Texas at 3/14.00 than he is here at around 5/16.00.

The only other player trading at less than 20/121.00 is Bryson DeChambeau, who came out top in Dave's 10-year-trens piece.

DeChambeau has Quail Hollow form figures reading MC-33-4-9 and after his fine effort at Augusta and with LIV form figures reading 5-2-1, it's impossible to make a strong case for taking him on at 12/113.00.

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Rory the Sole Selection so far

Aware of his fabulous record at Quail, I got Rory onside when he was winning the US Masters at 6/17.00 but he's still a fair price at anything around 5/16.00.

Given how well he'd he been playing in the early part of the year, I was happy to back him at Augusta at only 8.615/2, even though he hadn't won a major since he won this one for a second time 11 years ago, so he looks very fairly priced here.

When he won his fifth major and his second US PGA Championship at Valhalla in 2014, he did so less than a month after he'd won the Open Championship at Royal Hoylake, and back-to-back major wins could well be on the cards again here.

I'll update the preview if I add any other selections under 100.099/1 and I'll be back later in the week with the Find Me a 100 Winner column.

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*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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