The Big Match Tactical View: Real Madrid v Bayern Munich

Michael Cox
30 April 2018

Can Cristiano Ronaldo put Real into yet another final?

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Real Madrid have a 2-1 first leg advantage - but in this year of the comebacks, can Bayern cause an upset?

"Javi Martinez and Thiago Alcantara must offer more passing quality than last week, when they both frequently conceded possession"

Real Madrid v Bayern Munich
Tuesday 19:45, BT Sport 1.
Match Odds: Real Madrid 2.26/5, Bayern Munich 3.39/4, The Draw 4.3100/30

Injury problems for Real

Real Madrid take a 2-1 lead into this second leg at the Bernabeu, and are strong favourites to reach the final for a third consecutive year. Zinedine Zidane, however, has some crucial selection decisions to make.

Since last week's first leg, he's lost both creative midfielder Isco and right-back Dani Carvajal to injury, and there aren't obvious replacements for either player. Zidane will have to get creative.

The absence of Carvajal means Zidane is likely to turn to Lucas Vazquez. He's very much a winger rather than a full-back, but Zidane has little alternative and therefore we're likely to see Vazquez starting on the right of defence, up against Franck Ribery. He deputised effectively there last week in the second half, but 90 minutes in an unfamiliar position is a very different story.

Bale out?

Isco's absence means Zidane might change system, and go for more of a 4-3-3 than a 4-1-4-1 or a diamond midfield. Cristiano Ronaldo is a surefire starter and Karim Benzema should return to the side, but Zidane must choose between Marco Asensio and Gareth Bale, who didn't get off the bench in Munich. On current form, it's surely Asensio in line to start, and Bale's only hope is if he favours using Ronaldo upfront and omits Benzema, therefore allowing Bale into the starting XI. Another omission here, and Bale's Real future will be a major doubt.

Otherwise, this should be the same XI as last week. Keylor Navas will continue in goal despite his poor showing last week, with Raphael Varane and Sergio Ramos in front of him. Marcelo had an eventful game in Munich, offering attacking thrust but looking vulnerable defensively and his battle with Thomas Muller might be crucial, with the German potentially causing him problems in the air.

Real are likely to control this game through Casemiro, Toni Kroos and Luka Modric in the centre of midfield. They weren't at their best last weekend but have the tactical quality and tactical intelligent to dominate proceedings, slowing the tempo and frustrating Bayern, who aren't particularly good at pressing.

Heynckes selection issues

Bayern have injury worries of their own. Jerome Boateng, and Arjen Robben have joined Arturo Vidal, Kingsley Coman and Manuel on the treatment table, with David Alaba a serious doubt. Jupp Heynckes can still call upon a decent starting XI, but Bayern look weak at the back without Alaba and Boateng. The tall centre-back Niklas Sule should start, with Juan Bernat likely to deputise for Alaba if required.

Bayern's midfield will try to push forward and close down their opposite numbers quickly, but Javi Martinez and Thiago Alcantara must offer more passing quality than last week, when they both frequently conceded possession. James Rodriguez needs others to put Bayern in charge for him to offer his contributions in the final third, which have often been excellent this season. His battle with Casemiro could be key.

Lewandowski the key man

Robert Lewandowski will play between Ribery and Muller, and if Bayern are to complete an unlikely turnaround, it's likely the Pole will be crucial. He almost single-handedly guided Dortmund past Real Madrid at this stage five years ago, and will need to get the better of Ramos and Varane for Bayern to stand a chance.

I wasn't particularly impressed with either side last week, and while I think Real are eminently beatable, I'm not convinced Bayern have the cohesion to cause an upset here. Defensive injuries mean I think Real will score a couple, which will make life hard for the German champions. To me, Real look a good price at 2.26/5.

The Betfair Trader - Alan Thompson

I actually thought Bayern Munich were the better side in the first leg. They took advantage of Real’s defensive vulnerabilities but were unable to finish the chances they created. By contrast, Real Madrid were their usual clinical selves in front of goal, finishing both of their two shots on target to take a critical 2-1 lead into the second leg.

That doesn't mean the tie is done and dusted. Real brought a much bigger margin into their last two-legged tie and almost managed to blow that as Juventus won 3-1 in Madrid. That defeat was only Madrid’s third in their last 29 European fixtures, winning 20 and drawing six and a victory tonight will make the 12-time European Champions the first side to reach 150 Champions League wins.

Both sides recorded victories in their domestic leagues at the weekend despite resting many of their key players so both will be at full strength for this huge fixture. Madrid again conceded in their 2-1 win over Leganes, they just can’t seem to keep a clean sheet and I can certainly see Bayern scoring here, but I can’t see them either getting enough or keeping out Madrid at the other end.

Cristiano Ronaldo may have failed to score in the first leg but still has seven goals in his last four games against Bayern and nine in seven overall. Madrid have also won their last six matches against Bayern, scoring 15 goals and conceding just five, and I can only see Madrid making going through here. third consecutive Champions League final.

I am going to split my bet, backing Real Madrid/Yes in the Match Odds and Both Teams to Score market at anything around 3.55/2 and I am also going to back Ronaldo to get the first goal of the game at anything around 4.57/2.