The Big Match Tactical View: Leicester v Liverpool

Michael Cox
31 August 2018

Will Liverpool's winning run continue?

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The weekend's Premier League action starts with Liverpool's trip to Leicester - can Jurgen Klopp's side maintain their 100% record? Michael Cox and Alan Thompson preview the action.

"Liverpool might seek to overload the midfield by dropping Roberto Firmino back from his centre-forward position "

Leicester v Liverpool
Saturday 12:45, Sky Sports Main Event.
Match Odds: Leicester 8.07/1, Liverpool 1.4740/85, The Draw 5.14/1.

Liverpool have a 100% record from their three Premier League games, but this Saturday lunchtime trip to Leicester is perhaps their toughest assignment so far. Claude Puel's side have recorded two victories since their unfortunate opening day defeat to Manchester United, and will offer counter-attacking speed here.

Liverpool likely to be unchanged

Jurgen Klopp's side have been hugely impressive, and with everyone playing so well it's difficult to see where Klopp might elect to make changes. Jordan Henderson is probably the only player who will feel he deserves a starting place, but Gini Wijnaldum has looked excellent in the deep midfield role so far, and is likely to continue.

Liverpool will be up against one of the Premier League's most impressive performers so far that season, though, in young James Maddison, who has looked extremely lively since his summer arrival from Norwich. Maddison is clever at finding pockets of space either side of opponents, and Wijnaldum will need to show good positional discipline not to be dragged away from that crucial space in front of the defence.

Klopp is likely to continue with the side that defeated Brighton last weekend. Joe Gomez has looked solid alongside Virgil van Dijk, with Trent Alexander-Arnold at right-back and Andrew Robertson offering a crossing threat from the left. Alisson has looked incredibly composed between the posts, and is yet to concede a goal.

Firmino could be crucial

Wijnaldum will be joined by James Milner, who will make darts into the box from his central midfield role, and Naby Keita, excellent so far in transitions. They'll be up against Nampalys Mendy and Wilfried Ndidi, two solid defensive midfielders who protect Leicester's back four well.

Liverpool might, therefore, seek to overload the midfield by dropping Roberto Firmino back from his centre-forward position into the centre of the pitch. The Brazilian perfected his role last week against Brighton, helping with build-up play before storming into goalscoring positions, and he also teed up Mohamed Salah's opener with a well-weighted pass.

Salah has actually looked slightly off-colour so far, however, and Sadio Mane has shown more goalscoring threat from the opposite flank, outscoring last season's PFA Player of the Year 3-2 so far, with Milner the only other goalscorer from the penalty spot.

Leicester's full-backs to overlap?

Leicester are likely to defend deep to nullify the speed of Liverpool's front three, although they might be brave in the full-back positions. Ben Chilwell flew forward to good effect last weekend in the 2-1 win over Southampton, and while he'll be concerned about Salah's potential to break in behind, we might find him and Ricardo Pereira pushing on and allowing Ndidi and Mendy to protect the centre-backs.

Further forward, Jamie Vardy is still suspended which is a big blow for Leicester - he's scored more goals against Liverpool than against any other side. In his place, Kelechi Iheanacho is likely to lead the line, but Liverpool will fancy Van Dijk and Gomez to keep him quiet.

Demarai Gray and Marc Albrighton should start in the wide positions, with the former providing speed and the latter focusing upon crossing, probably from his more natural right-sided position.

I fancy Liverpool to collect points here - but they still look underpriced against a side capable of defending in numbers before breaking quickly, so I'll lay Klopp's side at 1.4740/85.

The Betfair Trader's View: Alan Thompson

Claude Puel was one of the favourites in the managerial sack race markets at the start of the season but his side have made a very decent start to the campaign, with just the one defeat and two wins from their opening three games. However, their opponents tonight have made a better start with a 100% record, they are yet to concede and sit proudly at the top of the Premier League.

There have been plenty of goals shared between these two recently, the last five Premier League meetings have seen both teams score (priced at 1.9420/21) and averaged four goals per game (over 3.5 goals is 2.89/5). However, this time around it is hard to see where the Leicester goals will come from as Jamie Vardy serves the last of his three-match suspension, he has been responsible for 43%.of Leicester’s total goals against the top six sides since 2014.

The Foxes have conceded the opening goal in two of their three games this campaign and they also had to recover from going behind in 11 of their last 17 premier league games last season. Jurgen Klopp’s men have been ahead at half time in all three wins this season and I think they could be again, on their way to picking up another victory..

I will be backing Liverpool / Liverpool in the Half Time / Full Time market at anything around 2.35/4