World Cup Day 16 Tipsheet: Eight bets including Haaland and Mbappe 49/1 double

Norway v France Tip - Back Haaland and Mbappe to make their mark

Click here for Norway v France odds
Friday, 20:00
Live on ITV1

Both France and Norway have already qualified after takng six points each from their opening two games, so the battle here will decide which team wins the group. France currently edge the group with +5 goal difference compared to Norway's +4. So a draw or better will see France win the group and only a Norway victory will see them reach the summit.

The group winners will face a third-place team and the runners-up will play second in Group E, likely Ivory Coast who Opta rate a 82.7% chance of finishing second. So there's a big carrot to go full strength and try to win this. As a result, France look a little skinny as 4/61.67 favourites. With the talent on show, it's no surprise Over 2.5 goals is short at 6/101.60. That talent must be backed.

Both Kylian Mbappe and Erling Haaland have started with braces in both of their games. Mbappe now has 56 goals for his country and Haaland has 55. These have been two of the most elite strikers in the world over the last decade yet we can get 7/24.50 just for them to score one each. Let's also push the boat out for more braces given the tantalising odds.

Senegal v Iraq Tip - Back Iraq to give the opposition more chances

Click here for Senegal v Iraq odds
Friday, 20:00
Live on ITV4

Both of these teams have lost their first two games but with the top eight third-placed teams able to go through, Iraq and Senegal still have a chance of qualifying. With Senegal on -3 goal difference, the 1/51.20 favourites price means they are still just 4/111.36 to qualify, with Opta rating the chances of a team on three points and -2 goal difference a 63.4% chance of qualifying at the start of round three.

Over 2.5 goals is just 4/91.44 and it's no surprise when only two other sides have conceded more goals than Iraq's seven. This is also borne out in-terms of expected goals, with only four sides conceding more. They have been incredibly naïve in both of their matches, conceding from trying to play out from the goalkeeper, despite using different personnel in the net.

Senegal could capitalise and the perfect candidate looks to be Ismaila Sarr. He's had a terrific season for Crystal Palace, scoring 19 goals, and already has a brace here against much better opponents in Norway. He's fired in nine shots across Senegal's two games. Two seems to be the magic number right now with the best players in the world and the 6/17.00 on Sarr is just too tempting against this defence.

Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia Tip - Back goals in a winner takes all

Click here for Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia odds
Saturday, 01:00
Live on ITV4

Cape Verde have done a magnificent job so far, holding World Cup heavyweights Spain and Uruguay to draws to put themselves in a fantastic position to qualify for the round of 32. They are just 4/91.44 to qualify, with a point likely enough given Opta rate three draws a 94.8% chance of qualification. Saudi Arabia are the opposite, needing a win having only picked up a point so far.

Which is why I'm surprised Cape Verde are 7/52.40 favourites. Saudi Arabia are 9/52.80 and, while draw no bet at 19/201.95 is the more sensible bet, I'm not prepared to trust them. They have conceded more shots and taken fewer attempts than their opponents. Instead with the motivation of one side needing to win from the off, I think there's a chance we could see an end-to-end game if Saudi Arabia find the breakthrough.

Over 2.5 goals is the underdog and round three tends to see an increase in goals given it is potentially the end of the road for a lot of teams. The World Cup is already averaging 2.94 goals per-game. The beginning of round three saw the first four games all finish with three or more goals.

Uruguay v Spain Tip - No bet in Uruguay's stiff test

Click here for Uruguay v Spain odds
Saturday, 01:00
Live on ITV1

Uruguay find themselves in a bit of a hole here after failing to win both of their first two games. They need to at least avoid defeat to qualify. It's 3/14.00 for a draw, with Spain just 1/21.50. Given Spain only drew 0-0 with Cape Verde in their first game, they still need at least a point to finish top (unless Cape Verde win and overturn a goal difference of four) and then would face either Austria or Algeria in the next round. Finish second and it's Argentina.

Cape Verde are capable of pinching another draw and if Uruguay draw here, it goes down to disciplinary records to split them. If both games are draws in the last five minutes, do we think both Uruguay and Cape Verde will start picking up yellows, given they are wiped after the group stage, in an attempt to finish third?

There are too many questions and that's before we really know about the fitness of Lamine Yamal who clearly elevates Spain to another level. They haven't scored in a game and a half without him so far. It's sensible to sit this one out or back the draws in both games and both Uruguay and Cape Verde to pick up lots of cards.

Egypt v Iran Tip - Back a convenient draw

Click here for Egypt v Iran odds
Saturday, 04:00
Live on BBC2

Sometimes betting provides us with obvious opportunities. One of those opportunities is backing the draw when it's convenient for both sides and that is the case here. Egypt are currently top on four points, two clear of everyone else, with a point meaning only Belgium could overtake them with a win and by scoring at least three goals.

Belgium don't even look like scoring one at the moment let alone three with their only strike an own goal. Iran will be buzzing after picking up a point against Belgium and another one would see them finish on three points with progression practically assured.

The longer the game stays level, the more likely both sides will likely accept the inevitable outcome and retreat accordingly. Indeed the Draw after 60 minutes is just 11/102.11 where as after 90 minutes it's 8/52.60. If this was a domestic game the price would be closer to 1/12.00.

New Zealand v Belgium Tip - Back Doku to be a targeted man

Click here for New Zealand v Belgium odds
Saturday, 04:00
Live on BBC1

The battle of the basement boys in Group G. Belgium will definitely finish in the top two if they win, while a draw is likely sufficient to qualify if they were to finish third. However, given their underwhelming performances so far, it's likely they'll play to win and they are priced accordingly at a very short 1/61.17.

New Zealand have taken the lead three times in this tournament but have only one point to their name, so must win to qualify. It's a tough ask based on the odds at 13/114.00 but Belgium have looked tired, old and toothless and it wouldn't be a surprise if the All Whites made life uncomfortable.

My best bet here is the likely matchup between Jeremy Doku and Tim Payne on Belgium's left-hand side. Doku should be back, having missed the draw with Iran with illness and then also travelled home for the birth of his child. He is a full-back's nightmare. Since the last major tournament at EURO 2024, Doku has been fouled an incredible 43 times in just 14 competitive games at an average of 3.07 per-game.

New Zealand's right-back Payne has limited international data but has committed a foul in both of his games here against lesser opposition than Doku. The Belgian has been fouled multiple times in 11 of those 14 games and they are the bets here.

Notable winners on Betting.Betfair so far at the 2026 World Cup...

- Mark Stinchcombe's stunning 38/139.00 Bet Builder in South Korea v Czechia
- Paul Higham's 9/25.50 Bet Builder in Mexico's MD1 defeat of South Africa
- Paul also tipped 13/53.60 (Canada v Bosnia) & 15/82.88 (Brazil v Morocco) draws
- A 6/17.00 winning ACCA for Mark on Sunday at the World Cup
- Andy Robson's 9/110.00 five-leg ACCA as Germany wallop Curacao
- A 13/53.60 winner for Paul as France beat Senegal with both teams scoring
- Paul's at it again, an 11/43.75 winning Best Bet in Switzerland v Bosnia
- An 11/26.50 winner for Jimmy The Punt as Jonathan David scores 2+ goals
- Paul's 2/13.00 headline tip in Germany v Ivory Coast was a winner
- Jack Critchley delivered a 5/16.00 goalscorer treble on day 13

Get Opta stats and tips for every matchday three fixture at the World Cup