Spain to prove too strong for rivals
Click here for Portugal v Spain odds
Monday 6 July, 20:00 kick-off
AT&T Stadium, Arlington Texas
Live on BBC One
They had a huge slice of luck against Croatia but Portugal did what Portugal do in major tournaments and found a way to win their last 32 match, and now it's Iberian neighbours Spain up next in a mouthwatering last 16 tie.
European champions Spain have just been finding their groove with their 3-0 demolition job on Austria their best display yet, and no coincidence it was also Lamine Yamal's best effort so far, leading to them being 10/111.91 favourites in Texas.
Cristiano Ronaldo of course is on the other side after scoring his first ever World Cup knockout goal, but his Portugal are 3/14.00 partly down to Spain's so far inpenetrable defence - which against Austria was the first to not allow a shot on target in a World Cup knockout game since Germany in the 2014 final.
Manager Luis de la Fuente is unbeaten in 11 major tournament games now (W10 D1) with just four goals conceded in that span, while overall Spain are unbeaten in normal and extra time 34 matches. The only defeat in that time is a Nations League final loss on penalties to Portugal last year.
Either team to win on penalties here is 13/27.50 - which is how their last two knockout meeting have been settled, while the draw is 2/13.00 and that's how six of the last seven meetings overall have finished after 90 minutes.
And frustrating Spain and playing on the break is sure to be the plan again for Roberto Martinez, whose side haven't conceded more than once during their current nine-game unbeaten run. They've conceded just twice so far but have allowed an xG double that so have maybe been fortunate - Spain are unlikely to let them off the hook.
There's a ton of talent in this Portugal side and they have a midfield capable of controlling the game, but Spain just look to be finding their feet and I think they'll just pinch it.
Back Spain win and under 3.5 goals
Back 13/27.50 Bet Builder on the best player stats
Mikel Oyarzabal is 7/52.40 anytime goalscorer favourite after another two-goal salvo against Austria, with Lamine Yamal next best at 17/102.70 and then Cristiano Ronaldo at 15/82.88.
Yamal is the pick of the OddsBoost options where he's 11/26.50 for 3+ shots on target - he had four against Austria in the last game and should be a constant threat again.
There may not be too much goalmouth action, but I fancy Oyarzabal for 2+ shots on target at 7/52.40, and Alex Baena would be the pick of the rest at 4/61.67 to make it three straight games with a shot on target.
Or you can double up the Oyarzabal 2+ shots on target and Baena 1+ shot on target at 11/43.75.
Bruno Fernandes has hit the target the last two games and is 5/61.84 to make it three in a row - with half of his shots coming from outside the area it may be best to back him for 1+ shot on target from outside the box at 9/52.80.
Fouls could, and should, be a focus between these two fierce rivals - Ruben Dias looks a good shout at 1/12.00 for 2+ fouls as he's managed that in back-to-back games.
And you can add Marc Cucurella to that list as well - he's given away two fouls in two games so far and may have to deal with Pedro Neto so 11/102.11 for 2+ fouls again looks a decent shout.
A final player prop to look at is Vitinha to be fouled 2+ times at 9/52.80 which has landed in the last two games and Spain will know to try and shut him down as soon as he gets the ball. For our Bet Builder though we'll just add him to be fouled once to play it safe.
Back Oyarzabal 2+ shots on target, Dias 2+ fouls, Vitinha fouled 1+ times