England showing heart over quality
Click here for more England v Argentina odds
Wednesday 15 June, 20:00 kick-off
Live on BBC1
AT&T Stadium, Arlington
For just the third time in their history, England are into the World Cup semi-finals. They've flirted with despair and disappointment, twice coming back from a goal down in the knockout rounds, but here we are: the World Cup started with 48 teams and The Three Lions are one of just four left standing.
It seems like an age ago when they turned on the style to beat Croatia 4-2 in the opening group game and, in many eyes, they haven't hit the same heights since.
But a mixture of Jude Bellingham's brilliance, Harry Kane's goalscoring instincts and some key performances from various other cast members have helped England keep the dream going.
Thomas Tuchel hasn't always been happy with the technical side but he took umbrage when feeling that he'd been asked if England's mentality could be questioned.
"This is pure mentality. There's no mentality problem. You can bottle it up and sell it," barked Tuchel. And he's absolutely right.
Are Argentina clinging onto title?
It's no mean feat to get to a World Cup semi-final but one question persists when it comes to Argentina's run to the last four this time: who have they actually beaten?
After cruising through a group featuring Austria, Algeria and Jordan, the holders' path through the knockout phase couldn't have looked more straightforward - Cape Verde, Egypt and Switzerland.
And yet they've made incredibly hard work of it. Argentina were taken to extra-time against Cape Verde, came from 2-0 down with 11 minutes left to somehow squeeze past Egypt and then needed another 120 minutes to beat a Swiss side reduced to 10 men.
Messi has been outstanding and they've been a great watch at times but are we looking at a side good enough to win back-to-back World Cups?
Giventhe question mark over both teams, it's not a shock to see both France and Spain at shorter prices in the Betfair Sportsbook's World Cup winner market. You can back England at 16/54.20 to lift the Jules Rimet, Argentina are the 9/25.50 outsiders.
England are favourites but extra time looks likely
With doubts over Argentina, England are the favourites here at [17/10].
Argentina are [21/10] while The Draw price of [15/8] suggests that we go beyond 90 minutes - just as both teams did in the quarter-finals.
That would bring penalties into play and England, of course, lost to Argentina on spot-kicks in the 1998 World Cup.
After losing six of their first seven shootouts, England have won three of the last four but Argentina have claims to be the kings of penalties. They've won 13 out of 19 and and beat France in the 2022 final after holding their nerve in a shootout.
Prepare for a long night and late drama
England's route to the semis was always going to be tough and not just due to the potential opposition.
To get here, The Three Lions have had to come through the altitude of Mexico City and survive the heat and humidity of Miami. They were gruelling affairs and having to play extra-time meant Saturday's win over Norway was even more sapping.
And yet Argentina have had to use up plenty of energy too, both physical and mental, after twice going to extra-time in the knockout phase and producing a huge effort to turn the game around against Mexico.
In many respects, the two teams are mirroring each other. Both are not convincing for much of the time, they're relying heavily on big moments from star players and have huge reservoirs of heart to draw upon when the going gets tough.
As a result, I believe we're in for a long night.
The Draw is a short price though so I'm going to try a different angle and have a punt on either team to win the game in extra time.
The appeal is that both sides are producing what England are calling 'hero moments' and they're taking place in extra time too.
Often the extra 30 minutes in big tournaments are a drag but Argentina and England have gone into extra-time three times between them in this World Cup and on each occasion they've killed it off with a winner (Argentina twice, England once).
Back Either Team in Extra Time
Star performers can feature in Bet Builder
Amazingly, this is Lionel Messi's first game against England at international level.
Then again, he's filled his boots against English club sides throughout his illustrious club career, scoring 27 times and assisting a further six across 36 games.
As for the World Cup, he's recorded seven goals and six assists in his last eight knockout stage appearances - a remarkable record.
I'm going to play Messi in a Score or Assist double with Jude Bellingham.
England's own No.10 is producing Messi-type figures having scored braces in the last two matches.
It's not unprecedented for the Real Madrid man though as, in his first season at the Bernabeu, he scored 18 times in his first 20 games - when Bellingham gets on a goalscoring roll he's hard to stop.
But let's get assists onside too given that he's already set one up for Harry Kane in this World Cup.
The Score or Assist double on Messi and Bellingham pays 4/15.00.
Back Lionel Messi and Jude Bellingham both To Score Or Assist
Shoot for the stars with this 40/141.00 Bet Builder
For a big-priced Bet Builder, I'll start with Messi To Have 1 Or More Shots On Target From Outside The Box.
He's pulled the trigger 17 times from distance so far in this World Cup, six more than any other player.
Leg two is Bellingham to score. He's 3/14.00 compared to Kane's 13/102.30 and both have six goals each.
Finally, I'll go with Nico O'Reilly To Have 1 Or More Headed Shots On Target. England's left-back - a big lad at 6 feet 4 inches (1.93 metres) - gets into the box and often to jump up and get on the end of crosses.
He almost scored with a header against Croatia, nutted a cross against the bar against Ghana and again used his bonce against Panama, the effort ruled not quite to have been on target.
And going back to last season O'Reilly scored two headers in the Carabao Cup final against Arsenal if we recall.
That Bet Builder pays 40/141.00.
Back Messi To Have 1 Or More Shots On Target From Outside The Box, Jude Bellingham Anytime Goalscorer and Nico O'Reilly To Have 1 Or More Headed Shots On Target