Tuesday Nations League & World Cup Tips: Portugal won't repeat Italy's mistake

Dan Fitch
28 March 2022
3:00 min read

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Dan Fitch expects Portugal to narrowly beat North Macedonia, as he previews the pick of Tuesday's Nations League, World Cup and friendly action....

"Can the outsiders pull off another shock? Logic says no, but their best hope is to try and keep it tight again."

Back Portugal to beat North Macedonia and under 2.5 goals at 3.185/40

Nations League - Tuesday 29 March

Back Kazakhstan to get the job done

Kazakhstan 2.26/5 v Moldova 4.03/1; The Draw 2.982/1
15:00, Live on Sky Sports Premier League

Kazakhstan fought back from being a goal down to win the first-leg 2-1. Now they need only a draw to secure a position in League C, which makes it a risk to back them, but odds of 2.26/5 for the home win seem big enough to take that gamble.

Outsiders are likelier winners

Cyprus 2.789/5 v Estonia 3.052/1; The Draw 3.052/1
17:00, Live on Sky Sports Football

Cyprus claimed a useful 0-0 away draw in the first-leg, but as they're without a win in 10 matches (D2 L8), you have to wonder if they'll be able to make any advantage count. Estonia wracked up wins in 2021 against the likes of Lithuania, Finland, Latvia and Belarus. Back them in the Draw No Bet market at 2.0421/20.

International Friendlies - Tuesday 29 March

Closer game than odds suggest

Denmark 1.9110/11 v Serbia 4.47/2; The Draw 3.412/5
17:00, Live on Sky Sports Red Button

Denmark have now lost two successive games, while Serbia are unbeaten in eight (W7 D1), which includes an away win against Portugal. While it's the Danes that have home advantage, everything else points to this being a competitive game. Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals can be combined on the Sportsbook at odds of 2.4529/20.

Israel games tend to entertain

Israel 2.466/4 v Romania 3.052/1; The Draw 3.052/1
18:45, Live on Sky Sports Red Button

The odds suggest that this will be one of the most well-matched of Tuesday's friendlies. It should certainly be entertaining. Israel lost 2-0 to Germany in their last outing, which was only the second time in Israel's last eleven games, that at least four goals were not scored. Romania are not prolific, but over 3.5 goals looks massively overpriced at 4.94/1.

Dutch courage will result in goals

Netherlands 2.588/5 v Germany 2.767/4; The Draw 3.45
19:45, Live on Sky Sports Red Button

Netherlands and Germany both won over the weekend. It was the Dutch that most impressed with a 4-2 win over Denmark and this looks like it has the potential to be another high-scoring game. Both teams to score is 1.738/11.

Losing pair try to regroup

Turkey 4.1 v Italy 1.981/1; The Draw 3.412/5
19:45, Live on Sky Sports Red Button

This is a hastily arranged friendly between two nations who have just suffered World Cup elimination. Italy's embarrassment dominated the headlines, but Turkey missed an 85th minute penalty when 2-1 down against Portugal and eventually lost 3-1. Turkey's games are generally high-scoring affairs and with Italy likely to experiment with their lineup, over 2.5 goals should land at 2.01/1.

World Cup Play-Off Finals - Tuesday 29 March

Poles are well-rested

Poland 2.568/5 v Sweden 3.412/5; The Draw 3.185/40
19:45, Live on Sky Sports Football

Poland should be a lot fresher than their opponents. The cancellation of their semi-final against Russia, saw the Poles able to play a friendly against Scotland, while Sweden had the tense experience of grinding out a 1-0 win in extra time against Czech, to reach this final. Poland are 3.412/5 to take advantage and be ahead at the break.

Portugal will make World Cup

Portugal 1.222/9 v North Macedonia 19.5; The Draw 7.413/2
19:45, Live on Sky Sports Red Button

We were all expecting a climatic showdown between Portugal and Italy, but North Macedonia gatecrashed the party, when they eliminated the European Champions last week. Can the outsiders pull off another shock? Logic says no, but their best hope is to try and keep it tight again. A Portugal win and under 2.5 goals is 3.259/4.

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