Scotland v Slovenia: Pocognoli to enjoy first home victory

Scotland up and running under new boss

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Tuesday 06 October, 19:45
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Scotland's 2-0 win away to North Macedonia last time out might seem unspectacular, but it may prove to be hugely significant. It was a first win in charge for new boss Sebastien Pocognoli, and the early strike from Keiron Bowie saw Scotland avoid setting an unwanted national record for minutes without a goal.

Now Scotland will look to kick on and pick up their first home win under the new boss. Pocognoli's home debut was a disaster, as Jack Hendry's 11th-minute sending-off led to a 3-0 reverse against Switzerland. However, the performances in Slovenia (a 0-0 draw) and North Macedonia were more encouraging.

It's worth remembering that Scotland are without key players. Scott McTominay has missed the entire international break with a heart issue, while Che Adams and Lawrence Shankland are also missing with injury.

Scott McKenna is suspended after a red card against North Macedonia, but Hendry is back after suspension. Napoli midfielder Billy Gilmour is set to win his 50th cap, while Rangers starlet Findlay Curtis has stepped up from the Under-21s to join the senior squad.

Slovenia pushing against the hand of history

These are tricky times for Slovenia and their coach Bostjan Cesar. Our friends at Opta tell us the Dragons have won just two of their last 13 matches, and they have never won an away game against Scotland. Indeed, Slovenia have never even scored in a road match against tonight's opponents.

Slovenia started the home game well against Scotland, only to fade in the second half, and that was the same pattern in Switzerland last time out, as they scored a second-minute opener but ultimately lost 2-1.

Ujpest winger Aljosa Matko will hope to shine again after scoring a goal against North Macedonia and then crafting Zan Vipotnik's opener against the Swiss.

Scotland v Slovenia Tip 1 - Scots to take three points

Scotland outshot Slovenia 17-4 in the reverse fixture, and only some wayward finishing and superb goalkeeping from Jan Oblak kept them at bay.

Scotland feel like they are heading in the right direction under their new coach, and despite the absences there are still plenty of experienced players in the team.

I'll back Scotland to win at 1.9210/11 on the Betfair Exchange.

Scotland v Slovenia Tip 2 - McGinn to be in the thick of it

Aston Villa star John McGinn's foul involvement numbers are through the roof, and while I'd normally be reluctant to back any player to have six foul involvements in a game, I'll make an exception for him here at 7/52.40 on the Betfair Sportsbook.

In the reverse fixture he had six foul involvements, against Switzerland it was five and against North Macedonia it was seven. If you look at the World Cup, he had 13 foul involvements across three games, so there has been an uptick since Pocognoli took charge.

Now read our other Nations League tips here!