Lewis Jones' Betting Notebook: One 6/4 shot shines out as the top-flight returns

So much change to Premier League picture

Three weeks. That's a long time in football. Long enough for the international break to feel like it has gone on forever, long enough for us to have exhausted every possible angle on Nations League football and, crucially, long enough for the Premier League betting landscape to change.

Welcome back, domestic football.

The return of the Premier League means the return of familiar rhythms, familiar teams and, hopefully, some familiar winners. But don't expect to simply pick up where we left off. The landscape has shifted while we've been away.

The biggest curveball comes from Manchester City, with the long-awaited charges now announced. Whatever your view on the case, its existence creates a fascinating problem for punters. How do you price a team over the course of a season when there is now a major question mark hanging over the club?

And that's before we get back to the stuff we really love: finding the statistical quirks, tactical tweaks and prices the bookmakers haven't quite caught up with.

The international break may have given us a breather. Now it's time to get back to work.

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What to expect after three-week hiatus?

I'm expecting chaos this weekend across the slate.

Three weeks is a long time to be away from your club teammates and, from a betting perspective, I'm treating this weekend almost like a second start to the season. We know what teams can look like after a few weeks of pre-season: rusty, disjointed and not quite at full speed. The same could apply here.

Managers will have been trying to keep their players sharp on the training pitch, but they've had limited control over those travelling with their countries. More importantly, they'll have spent the break worrying about whether their key players would actually return fit.

Nico O'Reilly, Brian Brobbey, Dan Ballard, Kai Havertz, Christos Tzolis, Ezri Konsa, Zion Suzuki, Alexander Isak, Cody Gakpo, Alex Scott, Jan Paul van Hecke and Micky van de Ven are just some of the players to suffer injury scares during the international window. There will be more that come to light.

That creates uncertainty - and uncertainty is something I don't particularly want to pay a short price for.

So be careful with the favourites this weekend. Arsenal at home to Leeds is a perfect example. On paper, Arsenal should win. When preparation has been disrupted, strange things can happen. Leeds on the double chance at 21/103.10 on the Betfair Sportsbook looks a very temping angle.

I'll be looking to embrace the volatility, not fighting it.

Lots to like about 6/42.50 on Villa

Regular readers won't be surprised about my best bet this weekend. I waxed lyrical about the outright prices for Aston Villa in my last Notebook, so this play makes perfect sense.

The Premier League has become such a congested, bonkers league that we've reached the stage where Brentford are almost being priced as favourites to beat Villa at Villa Park. I get the love for Brentford. I really do. But ranking them above an Unai Emery side on home soil feels like a dangerous game to play.

At 6/42.50, I'm ready to ride the Emery train again.

The market still looks cold on Villa, but I think their rebuild is quietly coming together. Johan Manzambi, Suzuki and Nicolas Jackson all shone in the win at Tottenham and, despite so many new faces, there was an encouraging cohesion to Villa's performance.

That shouldn't necessarily come as a surprise.

These players are working under a manager who knows exactly what he is doing.

And perhaps we need to remind ourselves what Emery's track record actually looks like. He has not finished outside the top seven in any of his last 15 seasons as a manager. Fifteen seasons! That level of consistency is extraordinary and, pound for pound, I still think he is one of the best operators in the game.

That counts for plenty when trying to work out the potential level of a team.

Villa may not have everything figured out yet, but the ingredients are starting to look right. With home advantage, a manager I trust implicitly and a price of 6/42.50, I'm happy to take on the market forces when it comes to Brentford. It's a knocking bet to attack.

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