France v Belgium: Back Mbappe to hurt Red Devils

• Mbappe has scored in 8/13 starts for France
  

• Belgium defence looks suspect

• Back Mbappe to net
  

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France v Belgium
Monday 17:00 (Live on ITV1)

In Gelsenkirchen yesterday, Slovakia scored first to write off our Win to Nil bet. For Southgate's England it's now 5/10 major-tournament knockout games that have finished 1-1 at 90 minutes - something to ponder ahead of Saturday's quarter-final with a well-organised Swiss outfit.

We're in Dusseldorf today for France's quarter-final with neighbours Belgium. Both of these two failed to top groups they were expected to win, but there's an easier explanation and fix for France than there is for Belgium.

Les Bleus, of course, were without Kylian Mbappe. The possible overreliance of Didier Deschamp's team on Real Madrid's new star is a discussion for another day. Today, he's set to play and we like the odds-against price on him finding the back of the net. He's scored on eight of his last 13 starts for his country and, though Belgium have talent in their ranks, it's not clear their defence deserves special consideration.

Their best goalkeeper, Thibaut Courtois, was left at home. Their centrebacks are Wout Faes, who spent last season in the Championship, and 37-year-old Jan Vertonghen. We'll take Mbappe to find a way past them.

France went out of the last Euros at this stage, on penalties to Switzerland. It's not clear Belgium have the spirit or confidence to pull off an upset today. Domenico Tedesco's Devils underwhelmed in two of their three group games, failing to score against Slovakia and Ukraine. We're not sure they can keep pace with Mbappe and friends, so we also wouldn't put anyone off the even money about France to win in 90 minutes.

Now read our other tips for Monday at Euro 2024 here!