England v Slovakia: Back Three Lions to silence outsiders

• Defence could be key...
  

• Three Lions looking solid at the back

• Back England to win & keep clean sheet
  

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England v Slovakia
Sunday 17:00 (Live on ITV1)

In Dortmund last night, an offside toe denied Denmark the goal that would have given us a BTTS winner.

We're in Gelsenkirchen today for England's Last 16 clash with Slovakia. Arena AufSchalke was the site of England's only Euro 2024 win so far and the Three Lions have the quality and pedigree to notch another victory today.

Whether they have the form and formation to beat Slovakia is more debatable, but Kobbie Mainoo coming in to fill a problematic position in midfield should help.

Under Gareth Southgate, England have won four major-tournament knockout games in 90 minutes: 2-0 v Sweden (2018), 2-0 v Germany (2021), 4-0 v Ukraine (2021) and 3-0 v Senegal (2022). There's been a clean sheet every time.

When they have conceded in a knockout match, they have never won the game in 90 minutes. Scores at the end of regulation time have been: 1-1 v Colombia (2018), 1-1 v Croatia (2018), 1-1 v Denmark (2021), 1-1 v Italy (2021), 1-2 v France (2022). For anyone looking to get against the Three Lions, the 1-1 Correct Score at 10.09/1 might hold some appeal.

The key to this game could be England's defence then. If the favourites hold firm, they might run out comfortable winners - they are 2.47/5 to beat a -1.5 Asian Handicap. Lucky for them, defence has been their strong suit to this point in Euro 2024. They've conceded just once across three games - a Danish shot from distance.

Slovakia scored once in each of their three group games, slightly outperforming their xG (2.72). England will need to be careful tonight, but their defence has been better than any Slovakia have faced so far. We'll take Southgate's men to lean on it tonight and move through to a quarter-final with Switzerland.

Now read our Spain v Georgia preview here!