RB Salzburg v Benfica: Back hosts to keep it tight in Austria

• Salzburg have kept clean sheets in 6/8
  

• Benfica have won 4/20 CL group-stage away games

• Back Under 2.5 Goals
  

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RB Salzburg v Benfica
Tuesday 20:00 (Live on TNT Sports Extra)

In Italy last night, Cagliari put on a late late show to nick a 2-1 win over Sassuolo and give us a winning start to the week.

We're stepping up to the Champions League today for the Group D game in Austria. Inter and Real Sociedad are already over the horizon, so these two are duking it out for a place in the Europa League.

Gerhard Struber's Salzburg (W1-D1-L3) have a three-point lead over the visitors (W0-D1-L4) - because they won the reverse fixture 2-0 in Portugal. The key thing to remember from that match might be that Roger Schmidt's Benfica had a man sent off after 13 minutes.

In their combined other outings, these two have managed two points from a possible 24. Salzburg have lost their first two home matches against the class of Group D: 0-2 v Sociedad and 0-1 v Inter. Meanwhile, Benfica are pointless on the road so far: 1-0 at Inter, 3-1 at Sociedad.

Nevertheless, the Portuguese - who need to win by three goals to take that Europa League place away from the hosts - are favoured to win this one.

If they're going to get the big win they need, they're likely to be counting on a strong showing from their Portuguese forward Joao Mario, who hit a hat trick at Inter last time out in this competition. He's scored in three of his last seven appearances across the CL and the Primeira Liga.

Put Joao Mario to score and Benfica to win into a Bet Builder on the Sportsbook and you could be paid out at around 5.69/2.

We're not sure we're ready to trust Benfica in this spot though. Last time out, they were 3-0 up against Inter before collapsing to draw 3-3. That's the CL momentum they're bringing into this one.

Meanwhile, Struber's Salzburg at least look capable of keeping things tight. They held Sociedad to a 0-0 draw in Spain on their most recent CL outing. Since late October, they've notched clean sheets in 6/8 across the CL and the Austrian Bundesliga.

Benfica have also won only four of 20 CL group-stage away games going back to 2016. It's not a lot to go on, as Salzburg are among the weaker opponents they've faced in that run, but we'll take an odds-against punt on the Austrians to avoid a big home defeat and go forward to the Europa League.

Find all of our picks for Tuesday's action in Max Liu's Cheat Sheet