Paul Higham has taken a deep dive into the stats to produce a big 12/1 Bet Builder for Liverpool v Nottingham Forest at Anfield.
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Williams had three fouls in last game v Liverpool
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Alexander-Arnold had 144 pass attempts in new role at Leeds
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Liverpool should be home bankers
Sometimes half the battle in doing a daily football column is picking the right game to focus on, but in the Premier League 3pm kick-offs Liverpool v Nottingham Forest looks the perfect choice.
Jurgen Klopp's side have had an awful season, but at Anfield at least they've been competitive - losing just once and throwing in the odd brilliant performance such as the 9-0 against Bournemouth or 7-0 against Man Utd.
Last time out they recovered from a poor start to hammer Arsenal in the second half in a 2-2 draw, but before that they kept four clean sheets on the bounce.
In contrast, Steve Cooper's struggling Forest arrive on Merseyside with the worst away record in the division on the back five straight defeats on the road.
Strange things have happened to this Liverpool side this season, including losing 1-0 at the City Ground, but even by their standards losing to a side with just five away goals all season would be something crazy.
Back a big 12/1 stats-based Bet Builder
So Liverpool are huge favourites, and the likes of Salah, Jota, Nunez and Firmino are all odds-on to score as you'd expect, so we'll look to a few other angles in.
And there are some stats away from the usual goals or assists markets that are of interest here - the best of which we've combined into a big Bet Builder.
We should get Salah in somehow and although he may well score at Anfield for the sixth time in a row, we'll instead take him for 2+ shots on target, as he did at Forest without scoring.
Trent Alexander-Arnold thrived in a new role at Leeds, grabbing his 50th Premier League assist but also seeing a huge increase in pass attempts when stepping into midfield.
Again, with the Reds due to dominate the ball, even if he doesn't get near the 144 pass attempts from Elland Road, he can get over 90.
And with Forest set to have their backs to the wall, let's get a couple of their top foulers into our Bet Builder - namely Brennan Johnson and Neco Williams who are second and third on the team for giving away fouls.
Williams gave away three fouls against his former club in the reverse fixture and coming up against the likes of Jota or Nunez down that Liverpool left side then 2+ fouls shouldn't be a problem at a nice price of 8/5.