Latvia have lost 14/18 home qualifiers
Kramaric has scored in 6/9 for club and country
Read more about Safer Gambling Week here
Latvia v Croatia
Saturday 17:00 (Live on Viaplay Sports 2)
In Helsinki yesterday, it all got a bit compehensive for our Correct Score punt. Finland took a while to get going, but eventually ran out 4-0 winners over Northern Ireland.
We're in Riga today for the Group D clash between Latvia and Croatia. Latvia are destined to finish bottom of the group, having lost 6/7 so far. They were thrashed 5-0 in Croatia and, with the visitors thirsty for a win today, we fancy there could be another one-sided result.
Croatia (W3-D1-L2) slipped up twice last month, losing to both Wales and Turkey. They're level on points with the Welsh, with an inferior head-to-head, so they need wins to maximise their chance of nicking second place and going straight to Germany next summer.
The visitors start as heavy favourites and the Asian Handicap market has settled on them to win by a couple of goals or so. That feels about right: Latvia have lost 14/18 home qualifiers since 2016. The margin of defeat was 2+ goals in 10/18 and 3+ in 5/18.
Croatia are without some key players for this one, which reduces confidence in their ability to smash through the handicap lines. Bruno Petkovic and Ivan Perisic are definitely out, while Mateo Kovacic is a doubt.
With Petkovic out injured, Andrej Kramaric looks set to lead Croatia's line and he's also a focal point for us. The Hoffenheim man is in decent form for his club, scoring in 4/7 Bundesliga appearances.
Kramaric missed his country's defeats in October, but scored on both of his two appearances in September - including the big win over today's opponents.
On the Sportsbook, there's an OddsBoost on him to score twice or more - that's out to 11/26.50. He's averaging almost four shots a game in Group D and we like the 10/111.91 on him to net anytime.
To create an odds-against punt, we'll put Kramaric to score and Croatia -1.5 on the handicap together in a Bet Builder. It's a winner if our man nets and his team wins by at least two goals.
Read Betfair's new 90 Minute Payout offer!
Find Dan Fitch's tips for all of Saturday's Euro 2024 qualifiers here