Flamengo v Olimpia Tips: Copa load of this 3-1 Bet Builder

• Cardozo had 17 shots in six group matches

• Olimpia under 3.5 cards in 20 of last 21 games

• Bet Builder double worth backing at 3/1

• Read Betfair's new 90 Minute Payout offer here

Flamengo v Olimpia
Thursday 3 August, (01:00 BST, Fri)
Live on Fanatiz

Flamengo host Paraguayans Olimpia in the Copa Libertadores on Thursday and it's no surprise to see the holders chalked up as the hottest favourites of the last-16 first legs.

The Brazilians are just 1/61.17 to take a halfway lead in the tie ahead of next week's reverse fixture but such short odds look to have created value in the props markets.

Leg 1: Fernando Cardozo 1+ shot

Let's start with shots where I'm more than happy to back Fernando Cardozo for 1+ shot at 8/111.73.

As Olimpia finished top of what was admittedly a weak-looking group, Cardozo fired off 17 shots across the six matches, his individual game tallies being 4-3-3-3-3-1. That is more than any of his team-mates.

He'll play on either the right side of the attack or midfield here and while his side are likely to be on the back foot for much of the contest, Cardozo should find an opportunity to get a shot away at some point - remember it can sail wide or be blocked, that doesn't matter at all.

The team shots market shows Olimpia are odds-on for 8+ shots and if that's right then surely Cardozo will be among the shot-takers.

For the record, he's 12/113.00 to land the 3+ shots bet for the sixth time in seven Copa outings. 2+ at 7/24.50 is also worth considering.

Leg 2: Under 3.5 Olimpia cards

The other bet I like comes in the card markets.

Here, the odds suggest Olimpia are likely to collect at least four cards but the fact is they've managed that only once in 21 games in all competitions since the Copa Libertadores group stage got under way in April.

While I can't give you the proof in terms of data (it will be out there somewhere), it's widely accepted that mis-matches are less likely to produce a glut of cards than a competitive, closely-fought contest, so if odds of 1/61.17 about the home win are correct, then there's little reason to think over 3.5 away cards is going to land.

The lower card count in such matches can be partially explained by teams prepared to sit deep and not necessarily engage in tackles, the tactics being more about getting bodies behind the ball and making it difficult for the opposition to play through. It's why many Manchester City and Liverpool games in the Premier League in recent years have seen few cards.

Any way, in this match, under 3.5 Olimpia cards at 5/42.25 looks decent value.

Double it up with the shots bet and you get a good-looking Bet Builder which pays north of 3/14.00.

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