Spain v Croatia: 14/1 and 30/1 Bet Builder tips on Saturday

• 4/15.00 Le Normand carded in 17 of 43 club games this season

• Morata has 9 goals in his 14 tournament matches

• Also, fouls-based double looks overpriced at 30/131.00

• Claim your completely free Saturday Acca or Bet Builder here!

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Spain v Croatia
Saturday 15 June, 17:00
Live on ITV1

Saturday's big game at Euro 2024 sees two of the Group B heavyweights go head-to-head in the Berlin stadium which will stage next month's final.

While unlikely, there's certainly a chance these two could be back there on July 14 with this being one of the most-anticipated games of the group stage.

With reigning champions Italy and supposed whipping boys Albania also in this group, there's an obvious reason to feel this could be a tight affair with a draw arguably suiting both teams.

In that case, it could well get a bit niggly, as was the case when they met in the last 16 of the last European Championship, with two teams happy to break play up and restrict rhythm.

With that in mind, and the fact that Michael Oliver the man in charge, I'm keen on getting fouls and cards on side to some extent.

Over a 50+-game sample, Oliver has produced five-card games in UEFA's club competitions more often than not, while he was second in this season's fouls-per-game list in the Champions League (for those referees who took charge of more than one match).

In international football, since the start of 2022, his card tallies have been 3-6-5-7-6-7-7 with the three games in the middle of that run coming at the 2022 World Cup.

I'm writing this prior to Friday's tournament opener when it will become clearer how strict the officials are going to be on the new edict which allows only the captains to talk to the referee. Others doing so face a caution.
My approach is to back a couple of long shots.

Bet 1, Leg 1: Robin Le Normand to be shown a card

The first is made up of two bets I feel may well be worth following throughout the tournament.

Robin Le Normand has become a card punter's dream, collecting no fewer than 17 in his 43 appearances for Real Sociedad this season.

While the majority of those came in La Liga, a competition well known for its high card count, it's notable that the French-born centre-back has been booked in three of his last five games for Spain too.

4/15.00 looks a good price.

Bet 1, Leg 2: Alvaro Morata to score

I'll double that up with a play on Alvaro Morata to score.

He's a striker who's become rather known for the chances he misses rather than the ones he takes but his record in tournament football is nonetheless very impressive.

In 14 games at finals-level, he's scored in eight - nine goals in total.

He's Spain's main threat and arrives here off the back of a 21-goal season with Atletico Madrid.

As referenced, it might be a tight game which will put some off but I'm prepared to take a chance and put Morata in a double which pays just under 14/115.00.

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Bet 2, Leg 1: Marcelo Brozovic to be fouled 2+ times

My other bet - I'll split stakes between the two - comes in those fouls markets where two chunky prices may just come good to deliver a big payout.

Marcelo Brozovic will again prowl around the midfield for Croatia and while he's known for cards and fouls of his own, he's often the one winning free kicks too.

He's been fouled twice in five of his last eight competitive games - including against Spain in last year's Nations League final - so 21/10 looks good as he prepares to go up against the likes of Rodri and, potentially, Mikel Merino, who was among the top 10 foulers in the big European leagues this season.

Bet 2, Leg 2: Robin Le Normand to be fouled 2+ times

We also return to that man Le Normand here, who I want to back at a massive 8/19.00 to be fouled 2+ times too.
This has happened in four of his last 10 games for Sociedad but the key for this is his likely battle with Ante Budimir, who is expected to start up front for Croatia.

He's an old-school centre forward, who loves an aerial challenge, and is exactly the sort of player I can see Oliver pulling up.

He's committed three fouls in all four internationals since returning to the squad which shows the potential he has for a battle with Le Normand, who could well be the defensive leader given the injury doubt surrounding Aymeric Laporte.

This double gives you eyecatching odds of 30/131.00.

Of course, it may not win but I'm sure the chance of it actually happening is shorter and if you beat the market enough times...

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More Euro 2024: Lewis Jones' Saturday stat pack!

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