Bet of the Day

Fluminense v Internacional: Back 11/1 Brazilian Bet Builder

Fluminense midfielder Ganso
Ganso, who loves a card, lifts the Recopa Sudamericana in February

Our football props column heads back to Brazil on Thursday where Fluminense and Internactional look good for both fouls and cards. Andy Schooler explains why...

Fluminense v Internacional
Thursday 4 July, 23:00

Ahead of the latest round of Serie A matches in Brazil, this one stood out in terms of both cards and fouls.
Not only do we have two teams with good numbers on both metrics, we also have a referee above average on each count too.

The man in the middle is Felipe Fernandes de Lima and he's averaging 29 fouls per game and 6.8 cards.

As for the teams, let's start with the fouls.

Leg 1: Samuel Xavier to commit 2+ fouls

Both are in the top seven when it comes to fouls committed, while Fluminense are the most fouled team in Brazil's top flight.

The scrapping needs to continue for Fluminense, too. They sit rock bottom with just six points from 13 games - a remarkable fall from grace given they were lifting the Copa Libertadores as recently as November.

Last month's Rio derby defeat to Flamengo proved the final straw for boss Fernando Diniz. They've since lost two games without scoring under temporary leadership but for this contest, Mano Menezes takes the reins for the first time. That should ensure a response from the Flu players and I'd expect them to be charging into challenges.

The first player I'm turning to in terms of committing fouls is Fluminense's Samuel Xavier.

He's been playing right wing back so looks set to go up against Internacional's most-fouled player, Wesley, who has been upended 2+ times in six of his last seven starts.

Xavier has only actually landed the 2+ fouls bet in two of his last five but this should be a thorough examination and a price of 11/102.11 looks fair.

Leg 2: Martinelli to commit 1+ foul

His team-mate Martinelli also gets the nod for 1+ foul, something the defensive midfielder has landed in his last 11 games.

Leg 3: Martinelli to be fouled 1+ time

Martinelli, who should start even with midfield partner Andre due to make his return from injury, is also worth backing to be fouled 1+ time - that's occurred in 10 of his last 12 outings for this oft-fouled Flu side.

Moving onto cards, which will complete our Bet Builder, both teams are in the top seven, with the home side second in the cards table.

Leg 4: Ganso to be shown a card

With this in mind, Flu's Ganso has to be worth backing for one at 9/52.80.

The attacking midfielder has been shown a card in seven of his 10 Serie A starts this season. Throw in the referee and those odds look good.

The worry is that he was dropped to the bench for the last game - a 1-0 lost to Gremio - but a player who started all bar one of the games in last season's Copa Libertadores run will surely be wanted by the new boss as he looks to get off to a strong start.

The four legs put into a Bet Builder create a near-11/112.00 shot - worth a try.

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Column P/L 2023/24

Staked: 299pts
Returned: 320.31pts
P/L: +21.31pts

2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts

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