Football Bet of the Day: Back the Ant to leap into final

• Athletic Club have already knocked out Barcelona

• Atletico poor on the road this season

• First leg featured plenty of cards and corners

Athletic Club v Atletico Madrid
Thursday 29 February, 20:30

When people talk about potential Champions League contenders, they probably don't talk enough about Inter. The Nerazzurri romped to a 4-0 win over a strong Atalanta side last night, and our man Lautaro Martinez delivered the goal we needed just before half time. Inter are now 12 points clear at the top, and can prioritise a European push.

With a spring in our step we'll head to Spain, because Athletic Club are up against Atletico Madrid, and I fancy the Basque giants to reach the final.

I've always maintained that Barcelona made a bad mistake when they jettisoned coach Ernesto Valverde, and they've never really found consistency and calm in the coaching position since. Valverde essentially took the rap for the Champions League collapses in Rome and Liverpool, but in domestic competition he delivered time and time again.

The man known as "The Ant" was a player at Athletic Club, and is in his third spell as coach. The Basque side are fifth in La Liga, and have a 1-0 first-leg lead in this semi-final. They have won their last nine games at San Mames, including a 4-2 win over Barcelona in this competition and a thrilling 3-2 victory over title challengers Girona. Real Madrid were the last visiting team to win, and that was back in early August.

Atletico Madrid also have an excellent coach, but while Diego Simeone's side have been exceptionally good at the Metropolitano, they have struggled on the road. Los Colchoneros have won just two of their last ten away games in all competitions, and one of those was at lower-league Lugo in the Copa del Rey.

At a raucous San Mames, I expect Athletic Club to reach the final, so let's combine Athletic Club/Draw with Over 8.5 Corners and Over 3.5 Cards on the Bet Builder at 2.3811/8. Although these two generally have good disciplinary records, there were six yellow cards in the first leg, and in the white-hot atmosphere of a cup semi-final, I'm expecting it to kick off. There were also 16 corners, and we're just asking for just over half that tonight.

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