West Ham v Brighton: Go for goals at London Stadium

• Trends suggest goals in east London

• Bet Builder options in shots and fouls markets

• Read about Betfair's new 90 Minute Payout offer here

West Ham v Brighton
Tuesday 2 January, 19:30
Live on Sky Sports Premier League & Main Event

The final game of the Premier League's festive season takes place on Tuesday night and frankly it looks a tricky one to call.

West Ham worries

That's particularly down to the doubts surrounding West Ham's line-up.

David Moyes was at his evasive best when fielding questions about Lucas Paqueta, Kurt Zouma (injuries) and Nayef Aguerd (illness) in his pre-match press conference and even went so far as to claim he didn't know if his Africa Cup of Nations contingent would be available for this contest.

Losing the in-form Mohammed Kudus, Aguerd, Said Benrahma and Maxwel Cornet would be a major blow ahead of a match against a Brighton side who have themselves been riddled with injuries of late.

Kaoru Mitoma, Ansu Fati, Solly March and Simon Adingra are just some of the absentees at present, although at least Pervis Estupinan returned in last week's victory over Spurs.

To still be eighth after their squad depletion - not helped by their Europa League campaign - is a fine achievement and with no continental distractions until March, boss Roberto de Zerbi will be aiming to climb further up the table between now and then.

Regardless of the team West Ham put out, this looks unlikely to be easy though.

Across the last eight games, the sixth-placed Hammers have the joint-best record in the Premier League (alongside Bournemouth) with six of those matches won.

With Brighton having picked up only 11 points from their nine away games - and just three from five against the current top half - it's tempting to side with the hosts in some way.

They are 2.546/4 to win the game but that team news cloud looms too large for me to get involved at that price right now.

Goals on the agenda

Instead, my eye is on taking advantage of the goals angle - one which has served punters well in Brighton's games so far. Their games have seen 71 goals so far, a league-high.

They are yet to keep a clean sheet in this season's Premier League but have scored in all bar one game.

That means their both-teams-to-score percentage sits at a whopping 95%. With West Ham also at a high 68%, this looks a solid play.

Over 2.5 goals also gets the nod, this having landed in 68% of both sides' matches so far.

Finally, it's worth noting that every Brighton game so far except one (Arsenal away) has featured a goal in each half.

If you put those three legs into one Bet Builder you get close to even money about a trend which has delivered time and again in the Seagulls' matches this season.

Props options

In terms of the player props markets, it's interesting to see that only two teams have conceded more shots than West Ham. That brings some Brighton players into focus.

De Zerbi's men, now on a run of just two defeats in 14 in all competitions following last week's 4-2 defeat of Spurs, will play on the front foot against all-comers and Pervis Estupinan looks one to follow given he is fit again.

Likely to start this contest at left-back (or left wing-back), the Ecuadorian was one of his side's success stories in the early weeks of the season.

Before getting injured, he made some great raids forward, getting shots off regularly.

He landed the 1+ shot bet in seven of eight starts and so 4/91.44 about him managing this again looks decent.

Jan Paul van Hecke at 4/61.67 in the same market is also of interest.

Brighton lose Lewis Dunk to suspension for this one so van Hecke may well be the primary target from set pieces.

He had two shots when Dunk was absent against Brentford a few weeks ago and has now had a shot in six of his last nine games.

The standout stat on the West Ham side of things comes in the fouls market where Jarrod Bowen has now committed one in his last 12 games.

This makes 4/61.67 about that run being extended look big.

Bowen had a similar streak last season so it's not a freak occurrence.

The only concern is the referee appointment being Sam Barrott - he's below average for fouls per game (20.88 v 22.51).

Estupinan, Van Hecke and Bowen in a Bet Builder treble pays just over 7/24.50.

Opta fact

West Ham have conceded at least once in all 13 of their Premier League games against Brighton, the most they've faced a side without ever keeping a clean sheet in the competition.

Crystal ball: Read Dimitar Berbatov's predictions for 2024!