Sunderland v Nottingham Forest: Has a home win been overlooked in the market?

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Hosts deserve to be backed with Forest as favs

It may be a surprise to some - it was to me - to see that, albeit marginally, Nottingham Forest are the Match Odds favourites to win Friday night's Premier League game at Sunderland.

I dare say the reason for that is because the general consensus is that Forest need the points more than Sunderland, but even if that is true - and I'm not sure it is - then 'needing it more' doesn't always translate to getting the desired result.

For the record, Forest can be backed at 17/102.70 to take all three points with the Black Cats available at 7/42.75 (the Draw price is 11/53.20). As I say, it's marginal, very marginal in fact, but I don't see any reason why the visitors should be the favourites.

Only two games ago Regis Le Bris' men hosted Tottenham, they were the favourites to win that game, and they did, cementing their position as one of the best teams in the Premier League on home soil.

They've lost just three of their 16 league games at the Stadium of Light this season and during the campaign they've beaten European-chasing teams like Brentford and Bournemouth as well as holding title-chasers Arsenal and Manchester City to draws.

Sunderland currently sit 11th in the table, but they're only four points behind Brighton in sixth and they have a game in hand on the three teams positioned sixth, seventh and eighth. They have an excellent opportunity to finish in the top seven or eight and qualify for European football next season

In fact, win on Friday night and they move level on points with Bournemouth in seventh having played the same number of games. They have everything to play for.

So while Nottm Forest will be desperate to take the points to edge them closer to safety I'm certainly not convinced that they need the points more or deserve to be favourites.

True, Vitor Pereira's men go into Friday night's game on the back of a convincing win over Burnley but that was only their second Premier League win in 10 games and you only have to go back a few away games to see that they lost 3-1 at Leeds.

So at the prices I have to back a home win on the basis that Sunderland have just as much incentive as Forest to take all three points, and that they're a very good team in front of their home fans.

Low-scoring game looks likely

If I'm in slight disagreement about Nottm Forest being priced up as favourites to win the game then I'm 100% in agreement that Under 2.5 Goals - available to back at 4/61.67 - should be the favourite in that particular market.

The last three meetings between Sunderland and Forest have resulted in exactly one goal being scored each time, and six of the last eight meetings have ended with two or fewer goals being scored (the two that didn't had exactly three goals in the game).

On home soil this term 10 of Sunderland's game have resulted in Under 2.5 Goals paying out, but interestingly exactly half of those 10 games also paid out on Under 1.5 Goals.

So if you are thinking of having a bet on a low-scoring game I'd be much more inclined to back the Under 1.5 Goals option on the Betfair Exchange at around 3.412/5.

It's not a bet that I'm going to tip up but I'm interested to see if that price gets shorter as the match gets closer. Below you can follow the the market which will update in real time.

Bank on Ballard in 5/16.00 Bet Builder

If the game goes the way I've talked up - the home side to do well, a low-scoring affair etc - then I'm happy to have a Bet Builder that pays out at 5/16.00 with those options included.

I'll play Sunderland a little more cautiously however and back them to avoid defeat (Sunderland or Draw in the Double Chance market), I'm happy with the Under 2.5 Goals option, and I'll also back Dan Ballard to register one (or more) shot on target.

The towering defender has registered 25 shots in 27 league games this term with nine of those being on target.

In a game that I expect to be tight I can easily see a set piece-heavy game, and if that's the case Ballard will be key to Sunderland in those situations. Add him to your bet builder and wave him up the field every time the Black Cats have a set piece in the final third.

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