Saturday Football Cheat Sheet: Best bets for Premier League and more

• Back Trent for shots in Nottingham
• Boro to see off Terriers
• Don't expect a thriller at Stamford Bridge
• Plus Bundesliga and La Liga tips

Nottingham Forest v Liverpool: Player props appeal at the City Ground

Notts Forest 12.523/2 v Liverpool 1.330/100, the Draw 6.411/2
12:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

Mark O'Haire says: "In such lopsided betting heats, it can be hard to pinpoint obvious value options, although I think there's potential when delving into the player props. Nottingham Forest have faced a minimum of 15 shots in eight of their 11 Premier League ties this term, conceding 16 efforts at goal on average across their 2022/23 campaign.

"With Liverpool firing in at least 15 attempts in seven of their 10 league tussles - averaging 17.50 per-game - I'm keen to put together a combination of likely candidates in the Bet Builder at a nice price to cheer on.

"Set-piece specialist Trent Alexander-Arnold has taken Over 1.5 Shots in seven of his 11 EPL encounters when playing at least an hour and looks well worth including. Elsewhere, Darwin Nunez has landed an on-target attempt in five of his past six Liverpool starts, and Roberto Firmino has followed suit in six of his most recent seven starts for the Reds.

"Combining Trent Alexander-Arnold 2 or more Shots with Darwin Nunez and Roberto Firmino to have 1 or more Shots on-Target gives us a generous a 2.8 option to support at the City Ground."

Mark's bet: Back Trent Alexander-Arnold 2 or more Shots, Darwin Nunez 1 or more Shots on-Target and Roberto Firmino 1 or more Shots on-Target @ 2.89/5

Premier League Opta Stats: City goals guaranteed at Etihad

Man City 1.232/9 v Brighton 16.531/2, the Draw 7.613/2
15:00

The Opta Stat: ""Manchester City have won each of their last nine Premier League home games, scoring at least three goals each time. There have only been two longer such runs in English top-flight history, both recorded by Aston Villa (12 between March/December 1897 and 13 between December 1930 and September 1931)."

Betfair Bet: Back Man City -2 @ 17/10

Middlesbrough v Huddersfield: Terriers terrible travels to continue

Boro 1.738/11 v Huddersfield 5.95/1, the Draw 3.953/1
15:00

Jack Critchley says: "Although he is unable to take much credit for Boro's Wednesday night victory over Wigan, Michael Carrick's arrival in Teesside is likely to lift some of the gloom surrounding the club in recent weeks. Their emphatic display in Leo Percovich's final game in charge helped to elevate them out of the relegation zone and gives the incoming boss something to build on...

"Huddersfield slipped up at the John Smith's Stadium against Preston on Tuesday night despite going off as marginal favourites. Although there has undoubtedly been a moderate lift in performance levels under Mark Fotheringham, the Terriers put in a toothless performance in West Yorkshire and barely troubled Freddie Woodman in the Preston goal."

Jack's bet: Back Boro @ 1.748/11

Borussia Dortmund v Stuttgart: Moukoko to run riot

Borussia Dortmund 1.584/7 v Stuttgart 6.25/1, the Draw 4.77/2
14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video

Kevin Hatchard says: "Borussia Dortmund have changed coaches, changed players and changed tactics over the last few years, but the same old problems remain. They are capable of playing magnificent attacking football, but they switch off defensively all too easily, and the intensity you require to consistently win games at the top level can't be relied upon. Individual errors happen all too regularly, and although this isn't exactly forensic analysis, they don't always have the stomach for the fight...

"Stuttgart got their first league win of the campaign at the weekend, as they beat hapless Bochum 4-1. That result came after the dismissal of the popular American Pellegrino Matarazzo, who took VfB into the league and kept them there, but was eventually brought down by the limitations of his squad. Stuttgart have been linked with a move for Jess Thorup, who recently left Copenhagen after overseeing an appalling start to their Danish Superliga title defence."

Kevin's bet: Back Youssoufa Moukoko to score @ 2.6413/8

Chelsea v Manchester United: Big guns to cancel each other out

Chelsea 2.26/5 v Man Utd 3.613/5, the Draw 3.613/5
17:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

Kevin Hatchard says: "Six of the last seven Premier League meetings between these sides have featured fewer than three goals, and this feels like another game that could be starved of goalmouth action. Chelsea have kept clean sheets in their last five competitive games, while United have just kept back-to-back shutouts against Newcastle and Spurs.

"If you look at the teams' Expected Goals numbers, Chelsea (14.5 through ten PL matches) and United (15.2) are quite a way behind the top teams in the division, so their respective attacks aren't clicking in the way that Manchester City's (23.6) or Arsenal's (20.1) are. Under 2.5 Goals is trading at evens, and I think that's a price that's more than fair.

"In terms of the Match Odds, Chelsea seem too short at 2.2. Even with home advantage, that price suggests they are significantly better than United right now, and I'm not sure the data or the results this term support that assertion. You could back United +0 & +0.5 on the Asian Handicap at 2.1, which means a draw gives you a half-win, and an away success gives you a full pay-out at odds-against."

Kevin's bet: Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.01/1

Real Madrid v Sevilla: No value backing leaders

Real Madrid 1.37 v Sevilla 10.5; The Draw 5.6
20:00
Live On LaLigaTV

Dan Fitch says: "The La Liga leaders Real Madrid welcome an improved Sevilla side to the Bernabeu on Saturday night.

"Sevilla are unbeaten since Jorge Sampaoli returned to the club as manager (P4 W1 D3), with their draws coming against strong opposition in the shape of Athletic Bilbao, Borussia Dortmund and Valencia. This is clearly the toughest test of Sampaoli's second spell, with Real Madrid following their El Clasico win with a 3-0 victory at Elche in midweek.

"There doesn't look to be too much value in backing Madrid, considering Sevilla's recent results against strong sides. Instead, go for Karim Benzema to score for a third successive game and under 3.5 goals in a Bet Builder double."

Dan's bet: Back Benzema to score and under 3.5 goals @ 3.07207/100