Premier League Opta Stats: Best bets for Matchday 7

• Tips for every Premier League Matchday 7 fixture

• Bournemouth backed to start the round with a win

• Black Cats can take at least a point at Old Trafford

• Bees' Thiago backed to strike against Man City

• Safe Sub is here for the 2025-26 season - read all about it!

---

Bournemouth v Fulham: Back Cherries for sweet start to weekend

Bournemouth v Fulham
Friday 3 October, 20:00
Sky Sports

The Opta Stat: 

"With 11 points from six games, this is Bournemouth's best ever start to a Premier League campaign (W3 D2 L1) -it is three more points than they had at this stage last season (8) and eight more than in their first season under Andoni Iraola in 2023-24 (3).

"Fulham have conceded more fouls than any other Premier League side this season (88), with 25% of those committed by Sasa Lukic (22 - a league high). Lukic's current 3.7 fouls conceded per 90 minutes is the most by a player in a season (min. 500 minutes) since Hal Robson-Kanu in 2016-17 (also 3.7)."

---

Leeds v Tottenham: Back the Draw

Leeds v Tottenham
Saturday 4 October, 12:30
Live on TNT

The Opta Stat: 

"Leeds haven't won any of their last 11 Premier League matches that have kicked off before 3pm (D2 L9), since a 3-0 win over Chelsea in August 2022 (2pm KO). Tottenham Hotspur have drawn their last two Premier League matches, as many as they'd drawn in their previous 23 (W7 D2 L14)."

Betfair Bet: Back the Draw @ 12/53.40

Now read our mini-preview of Leeds v Spurs featuring two bets at odds-against

---

Arsenal v West Ham: Back Magalhães to exploit Hammers' weakness

Arsenal v West Ham
Saturday 4 October, 15:00

The Opta Stat:

"Nine of Arsenal's last 14 Premier League goals have been scored via set pieces (seven corners, one freekick, one penalty). Overall, 16.7% of the goals scored under Mikel Arteta have been from corners (68/408).

"Gabriel Magalhães has netted 18 Premier League goals for Arsenal - the most of any defender across the league since his debut in September 2020. The Brazilian has the most goals in Premier League history with every single one of them scored from a set piece situation."

Betfair Bet: Back Magalhães to score @ 11/26.50

---

Man Utd v Sunderland: Back the Black Cats

Man Utd v Sunderland
Saturday 4 October, 15:00

The Opta Stat:

"Sunderland have 11 points in six Premier League matches this season (W3 D2 L1), the best start by a newly promoted side since West Ham United in 2012-13 (also 11). They need just one point to equal Southampton's total from the entirety of last season in 38 games (12).

"This will be Ruben Amorim's 50th game in charge of Man Utd in all competitions - none of the last five managers to hit 50 games have won their 50th (D3 L2 - Moyes, van Gaal, Mourinho, Solskjaer, ten Hag), with Alex Ferguson the last to win his 50th match back in November 1987 away at Bury."

Betfair Bet: Back Sunderland Double Chance @ 6/42.50

Now read why Lewis Jones is laying Man Utd on the Betfair Exchange 

---

Chelsea v Liverpool: Back goals as wounded giants meet

Chelsea v Liverpool
Saturday 4 October, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports

The Opta Stat: 

"Liverpool are winless in their last four Premier League games at Stamford Bridge (D3 L1) and could lose away to Chelsea two seasons running in the league for the first time since losing three on the bounce from 2004-05 to 2006-07.

"Chelsea have lost four of their last five home Premier League matches against the reigning champions (D1
L4), having gone undefeated at Stamford Bridge between 2002-03 and 2019-20 (W7 D6). Chelsea have suffered consecutive Premier League defeats for just a third time under Enzo Maresca. The Blues have not lost three league games in a row since losing four on the bounce in April/May 2023 under Frank Lampard."

Betfair Bet: Back Chelsea Double Chance and BTTS 'Yes' @ 1/12.00

Now read why Opta say Liverpool can get a win at Stamford Bridge

---

Football... Only Bettor. Listen to the latest episode now.

---

Newcastle v Nottm Forest: Back Magpies to claim valuable points

Newcastle v Nottm Forest
Sunday 5 October, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports

The Opta Stat: 

"Nottingham Forest have won five points in the Premier League this season (W1 D2 L3), with 80% of those accumulated by former manager Nuno Espirito Santo. It's the lowest won by a side who'd finished the previous season in the top-7 since West Ham in 2022-23 (4, finished 7th in 2021-22).

"Nick Woltemade has scored in each of his first two home Premier League appearances for Newcastle United - the only two players to score in their first three at St James' Park are Les Ferdinand in 1995 and Alan Shearer in 1996."

Betfair Bet: Back Newcastle and Woltemade to score @ 7/42.75

---

Everton v Crystal Palace: Back Eagles to keep on soaring

Everton v Crystal Palace
Sunday 5 October, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports

The Opta Stat: 

"Everton have only won four of their last 31 Premier League matches against sides starting the day in the top-half of the table (D11 L16) - 15 of their last 19 victories have come against sides in the bottom half.

"Crystal Palace are looking to remain unbeaten for a 13th consecutive Premier League game, which would set a new club record for unbeaten top-flight league games - the Eagles also had a 12 match run between May and October 1990."

Betfair Bet: Back Palace and Under 2.5 goals @ 4/15.00

---

Wolves v Brighton: Back Eagles to keep on soaring

Wolves v Brighton
Sunday 5 October, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports

The Opta Stat: 

"Brighton have won each of their last four league visits to Wolves; the only sides the Seagulls have ever won 5+ successive away games against in their league history are Grimsby Town (5 from 1985 to 1992) and Wolves themselves (6 from 1979 to 1991).

"Only against West Ham (31) have Brighton scored more Premier League goals than they have against Wolves (27), with their average of 1.9 goals per game against Wolves their joint-best of any opponent they've faced more than twice in the competition.

"Last time out against Chelsea, Brighton forward Danny Welbeck scored in his 17th different Premier League campaign, with only four players netting in more (Ryan Giggs 21, Paul Scholes 19, Frank Lampard 18, James Milner 18). Meanwhile, his six goals against Wolves are his joint-most against an opponent in the competition."

---

Aston Villa v Burnley: Back hosts in Clarets clash

Aston Villa v Burnley
Sunday 5 October, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports

The Opta Stat: 

"Burnley have picked up just four points in their first six Premier League games this season (W1 D1 L4) and they are yet to win a single point away from home (L3). The Clarets have lost their last four away Premier League games, last losing more consecutively between November 2016 and February 2017 (seven). Burnley have already conceded 13 Premier League goals this season, only three fewer than they conceded in 46 Championship matches in 2024-25 (16).

"Since the start of last September, only three teams have picked up more home Premier League points than Aston Villa (44 - W12 D8 L1) and no ever present side has lost fewer home games in that time (1, level with Liverpool)."

Betfair Bet: Back Villa -1 @ 6/42.50

---

Brentford  v Man City: Back Thiago to strike again for Bees

Brentford v Man City
Sunday 5 October, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports

The Opta Stat: 

"Manchester City (18.4%) and Brentford (17.7%) have the two highest shot conversion rates in the Premier League this season. Indeed, the Bees have had the joint-fewest shots so far this term (51), but rank joint sixth for goals scored (9).

"Brentford's Igor Thiago has scored five goals from six shots on target in all competitions this season. Meanwhile, in the Premier League the Brazilian has the highest shot conversion rate of any player to have 10+ shots this term (40% - 4 goals from 10 shots)."

---

Now read about the Punter who won £9K predicting every Premier League result in matchday 6

---