Nottingham Forest v Chelsea: Back Nuno's men as Blues fail acid test

• Forest a point behind Chelsea in UCL race

• Cards a feature of 6/42.50 Bet Builder

• Back Cucurella to shoot and Sels to be busy at 6/42.50

• Check out Ste Tudro's Build Ups tips at the bottom of this page

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Nottingham Forest v Chelsea
Sunday 26 May, 16:00
Live on Sky Sports

Forest one win from dream return to the big time

Given their extended period in the wilderness, it's easy to forget what an enormous club Nottingham Forest is. The house that Clough built stood as a monument to winning - twice the East Midlands club were European champions, and they also won the English title in 1978. They have twice won the FA Cup and delivered the League Cup four times.

That winning feeling had been lost until Steve Cooper got the Tricky Trees back into the Premier League, and now the wily Nuno has built upon Cooper's foundation. Controversial and demanding owner Evangelos Marinakis has spent lavishly on transforming the club's fortunes, and Nuno has whittled that expensive raw material into a battled-hardened machine capable of competing with the best.

Liverpool and Manchester City have been beaten by Forest this season, as have Aston Villa, Spurs and Manchester United. Chelsea and Arsenal have been held to draws, and Forest have lost just 10 of their 37 league games.

Forest have nailed down a Conference League spot, but a Europa League or even Champions League place are still up for grabs. A win over Chelsea on Sunday doesn't guarantee a long-awaited return to Europe's top table, but it gives Forest a fighting chance.

Nuno's men have been happy to play their way, an old-school credo of contain and counter. Centre-backs Nikola Milenkovic and Murillo have formed a terrific partnership, ably assisted by full-backs Ola Aina and Neco Williams, while goalkeeper Matz Sels has made a huge leap this term.

At the sharp end, Chris Wood has banged in 20 Premier League goals, the first Forest striker to manage that since Stan Collymore. Anthony Elanga and Callum Hudson-Odoi have provided the flair and pace out wide, Morgan Gibbs-White the ingenuity and toughness through the middle.

Forest have admittedly faltered in recent weeks, winning just two of their last seven Premier League matches. They found their fighting spirit just in time last week, as they ground out a 2-1 win at West Ham.

Murillo is expected to shake off a minor injury in time to return to the XI here, while Taiwo Awoniyi is still sidelined after a serious injury against Leicester, an incident that saw the Nigerian collide with a post and later be placed in an induced coma in hospital.

Maresca's negativity jars with Chelsea expectations

It's very difficult to change the culture of a club that enjoyed two decades of boom-and-bust under Roman Abramovich, discarding and hiring managers at will but still securing a steady stream of silverware. For all the talk of projects under Todd Boehly and Clearlake Capital (Boehly is not the sole boss, and never was), the new owners have swung the axe on Thomas Tuchel, Graham Potter and Mauricio Pochettino.

Current coach Enzo Maresca is reportedly set to get more time to bed down his ideas, regardless of whether Champions League qualification is achieved, but his constant assertions that his team isn't ready to challenge at the top end will only shield him for so long.

Chelsea's eye-wateringly expensive recruitment drive will catch up with them eventually, and they need success in tournaments like the Club World Cup and then the Champions League to keep the taps running.

Maresca's negativity also extends to next week's Conference League final against Betis, as he's been complaining that the Andalusians have had their La Liga game moved to Friday to give them two extra days of rest. This was a chance for the Italian to talk up his players and say the rest differential didn't matter, but he took the tack of getting his excuses in first.

Chelsea have won four of their last five top-flight games, but their away form is a huge concern. The Blues have won just one of their last 10 away games in the Premier League, and that was courtesy of a dramatic late comeback against Fulham. Chelsea haven't even scored in six of those 10 games, and this Sunday they'll be without suspended striker Nicolas Jackson.

Whether you rate him or not, there's no denying the Senegalese hitman can be effective, and only Cole Palmer has outscored him for Chelsea in the league. Centre-back Wesley Fofana is out of action, while Marc Guiu and Christopher Nkunku are short of full fitness.

Forest can at least draw bad-tempered occasion

Chelsea's away record is dreadful in recent months, and I'm not convinced they'll be able to handle the intensity of a pumped-up City Ground. It's true that Forest have lost their way, but with European football of some form definitely in the bag, they can give this a proper go.

The loss of Jackson is huge, and star player Cole Palmer hasn't scored in an away match since the first week of January. If Forest take the lead here, it'll be incredibly hard for Chelsea to hit back and win the game.

With the stakes so high, I can see this match becoming ill-tempered, so I'll throw Over 4.5 Cards into the mix to give us a Bet Builder double of 6/42.50. Chelsea have picked up 2.68 cards per game in the Premier League this term, while Forest have accrued 2.32. When the teams met in September at Stamford Bridge, there were 10 cautions and a red card.

Another 6/42.50 Bet Builder combination is backing Chelsea's Marc Cucurella to have a shot and the Forest keeper (Sels barring injury) to make three or more saves. Chelsea will have to go for it at some stage to get the win that would guarantee a Champions League spot, and Sels has made three saves or more in 22 of his 37 Premier League matches. In the reverse fixture against Chelsea, he was forced into seven saves.

Cucurella scored the winner against Manchester United recently, and the Spanish international has had a shot in 16 of his last 21 Premier League starts. 

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