Friday Football Cheat Sheet: Best bets for Premier League

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Aston Villa v Southampton: Friday night fun from Villa Park

Aston Villa 2.111/10 v Southampton 3.814/5, the Draw 3.711/4
20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

Mark O'Haire says: "Aston Villa have won two of their last three Premier League meetings with Southampton (W2-D0-L1), having registered a solitary success in their previous 11 encounters with the Saints (W1-D3-L7). The Villains were 4-0 victors in this exact fixture in March, a win that ended a six-game home winless streak against Southampton (W1-D2-L4).

"They have managed to take top honours only once in their past 10 Premier League outings (W1-D3-L6) - earlier this term when welcoming Everton. And under Steven Gerrard's stewardship, the hosts have registered only five home triumphs in 17 Villa Park league dates (W5-D5-L7), recording just three clean sheets in that same sample.

"Southampton have alternated between victory and defeat in their last four Premier League games, with their two wins in this run more than they'd managed in their previous 14 beforehand (W1-D3-L10). However, the Saints are often playing catch-up having conceded the opening goal in each of their last five league encounters (W2-D1-L2)."

Mark's bet: Back Both Teams To Score @ 1.768/11

Nottingham Forest v Fulham: Cottagers to fell trees

Nottm Forest 2.8815/8 v Fulham 2.727/4, the Draw 3.55/2
20:00

Stephen Tudor says: "Last season, in the Championship, Fulham were comfortable winners in this fixture, leaving the City Ground four goals to the good, but how relevant that is to the present-day feels negligible. For one thing, Forest have since signed a gazillion players.

"Maybe though, there are some pertinent points to take from that one-sided affair, with Alexandar Mitrovic bagging two against a defence that was not only out-maneuvered, but out-muscled too.

"In his quest to prove he is elite even among the elite, the prolific Serb has six in six this term while his broader stats are frankly staggering. Going back to last August, in 52 appearances, he has scored on average every 91.8 minutes.

"As for Forest's defensive flaws, that have only worsened against better quality fare. They're the only side to face 100+ shots this season and have the highest expected goals against tally. A lack of familiarity among the new players is only breeding contempt."

Stephen's bet: Back Fulham to win the second-half @ 2.89/5

Nottingham Forest v Fulham: Opta Stats Number Crunch

Key Stat: "Mitrovic has scored six goals in Fulham's opening six Premier League matches this season, netting in the last four in a row. No player has scored in five consecutive Premier League appearances for the Cottagers, though Nottingham Forest are the only side to have faced 100+ shots in the Premier League this season (104), while they've also faced the most shots on target (42) and have the highest expected goals against tally this term (12)."

Betfair bet: Back Mitrovic to score & Fulham to have 5+ shots on target @ 3.814/5

Auxerre v Lorient: Underrated visitors are smart selection

Auxerre 2.8415/8 v Lorient 2.6813/8, the Draw 3.55/2
20:00
Live on BT Sport 3 & Betfair Live Video

James Eastham says: "Auxerre are W2-D1-L4 from their opening seven games of the season - and those form figures reflect their performance level - while Lorient are a more impressive W5-D1-L1, and deservedly so.

"This is Lorient's best-ever start to a Ligue 1 season and they go into the game having impressively defeated Lyon (3-1) and Nantes (3-2) in their last two outings.

"Lorient also have better team news than Auxerre so it's hard to make a case for the home side. With our selection you'll get your stakes back if the game ends in a draw and make a profit if Lorient win."

James's bet: Back Lorient Draw No Bet @ 1.9520/21