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Premier League Tipsheet: The best bets for Friday and Saturday's top-flight showdowns

Stephen Tudor
15 September 2022
3.30 min read

Is Gerrard starting to feel the pressure?

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Ste Tudor highlights where the goals, assists and three points will likely be found to get this weekend started.

Betfair are giving you a completely free £2 Bet Builder on any Premier League match this weekend - bet here!

Aston Villa v Southampton (20:00) - Ings will only get better

Southampton's away form has been nothing to write home to the South Coast about. Since beating Spurs in a five-goal thriller way back in early February, the Saints have picked up six meagre points from a possible 30.

Yet they'll fancy their chances this Friday evening, with Villa having won just three of their last 17 and struggling to marshal any consistent threat up front. Only Forest and Bournemouth have had fewer shots on target this term.

A loss for Steven Gerrard's side will likely see them reside in the bottom three, a fifth of the way through the season and perhaps such stakes will see a recall for Danny Ings here. The 30-year-old has had more touches in the opposition box in 2022/23 than any other Villan.

Returning to the visitors, Che Adams has failed to score past Villa in 12 attempts and the former Brum striker will be keen to rectify that. To that end he's in decent shape, converting four of his side's six away goals this season across all comps.

A bet builder of Adams to score anytime and Ings to have three or more shots offers up

7.4

Nottingham Forest v Fulham (20:00) - Felled trees

Last season, in the Championship, Fulham were comfortable winners in this fixture, leaving the City Ground four goals to the good, but how relevant that is to the present-day feels negligible. For one thing, Forest have since signed a gazillion players.

Maybe though, there are some pertinent points to take from that one-sided affair, with Alexandar Mitrovic bagging two against a defence that was not only out-maneuvered, but out-muscled too.

In his quest to prove he is elite even among the elite, the prolific Serb has six in six this term while his broader stats are frankly staggering. Going back to last August, in 52 appearances, he has scored on average every 91.8 minutes.

As for Forest's defensive flaws, that have only worsened against better quality fare. They're the only side to face 100+ shots this season and have the highest expected goals against tally. A lack of familiarity among the new players is only breeding contempt.

Two-thirds of Fulham's goals in 2022/23 have come in the second period and that's where this game will be decided.

Back Fulham to win the second-half @

2.8

Diego Costa.jpg

Wolves v Man City (12:30) - Phenoms past and present

Wolves' signing of Diego Costa adds a wildcard element to this lunchtime kick-off though it remains to be seen how involved the 33-year-old will be having not played a competitive fixture for nine months. Still, the ex-Chelsea hitman has a fine pedigree at this level, scoring a phenomenal 52 goals in 89 top-flight outings.

That was then though, and this is now, and Bruno Lage's parsimonious but shot-shy side are absolutely not the Blues of yesteryear.

A 4% shot conversion rate coupled with an ultra-pragmatic, conservative outlook has resulted in Wolves failing to score more than once in their last nine, and even if they are commendably stingy at the back you fear for them this season. In the Premier League you can only hold back the tide for so long.

And in Erling Haaland, City possess a one-man tsunami.

By adding an acrobatic 13th of the season in the Champions League this week, it means the giant striker has notched every 56 minutes since joining City. Take an ordinary display in the Community Shield out of the equation and he's scored every 13.5 times he's touched the ball. That defies belief.

This one won't be pretty - the hosts will see to that. But it could well be a straightforward extension of their tremendous away record in the league for Guardiola's creation.

Man City/Man City is a decent shout @

1.9

Newcastle v Bournemouth (15:00) - Context needed for Cherries

Here's a somewhat fatuous stat that is interesting, nonetheless. Should the top six and all their results be dispensed with, the Cherries would be second in the league right now.

It's included here to add some context to a season that was being painted as a very difficult one for the recently promoted side, that is until they mounted a thrilling second-half comeback at Forest a fortnight ago which left us instead just plain confused.

At half-time at the City Ground, a managerless Bournemouth were two down and completely reeling. Had they been breached once more in the second period it would have broken a Premier League record for the most goals conceded after six games.

Now we are none the wiser as to who they are and what they are capable of. Ninety minutes at St James Park will reveal a good deal.

Regardless, the Magpies should be fancied to win out, especially as Bruno Guimaraes and Allan Saint-Maximin - their two most impactful players - are likely to feature after respective thigh problems.

Roll the dice on BTTS and no draw @

2.7

Tottenham v Leicester (17:30) - Kane is able

Harry Kane loves playing against the Foxes, previously scoring a remarkable 19 from 18 meetings, and that bodes very badly for a struggling side enduring their longest losing streak for eight years. For Brendan Rodgers meanwhile, this is his worst run of results across his entire managerial career and as the odds shorten on his departure, defeat in North London this Saturday could make his position untenable.

A possible plus point for the visitors lies in James Maddison, who is one of only three players on the pitch - the others predictably being Kane and Son - to have reached double figures for shots undertaken in 2022/23. Only Brentford have scored more than Leicester from outside the box.

Alas, even if a twenty-yarder flies in from somewhere, bypassing a misfiring forward roster with just two goals from a combined 737 minutes, it is unlikely the visitors will maintain their advantage.

Leicester have dropped a staggering 24 points from winning positions this year. No-one else comes close.

Expect Spurs to respond well to their Champions League disappointment mid-week and expect goals. The last time Tottenham failed to get on the scoresheet in the league was way back in April.

Kane to score anytime and over 3.5 goals as a bet builder is well worth a punt @

3.1

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Premier League Tips

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Premier League Tipsheet: The best bets for Friday and Saturday's top-flight showdowns

Aston Villa v Southampton (20:00) - Ings will only get better

Nottingham Forest v Fulham (20:00) - Felled trees

Wolves v Man City (12:30) - Phenoms past and present

Newcastle v Bournemouth (15:00) - Context needed for Cherries

Tottenham v Leicester (17:30) - Kane is able

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