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What The Stats Say: Opta shows that Liverpool are a short price given away form

Dan Fitch
25 January 2021
3:00 min read

Can Jurgen Klopp turn around Liverpool's poor form?

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Dan Fitch has ten tips for the midweek Premier League fixtures based on Opta Stats and has found that Liverpool's poor away form is not reflected in their price.

“Liverpool have picked up just one win in their last eight away Premier League games (D5 L2).”

Spurs seem the value here and can be backed cautiously at 2.3411/8 in the Draw No Bet market.

Low scoring derby likely

Crystal Palace 3.39/4 v West Ham 2.466/4; The Draw 3.412/5
Tuesday 26 January, 18:00
Live on BT Sport 3

"Since beating West Brom 5-1 at the start of December, Crystal Palace have scored just five further goals in their eight Premier League matches (W1 D4 L3), failing to score on four occasions in this run."

With West Ham looking very defensively secure, under 2.5 goals should land at 1.768/11.

Magpies have run out of luck

Newcastle 3.953/1 v Leeds 2.01/1; The Draw 4.03/1
Tuesday 26 January, 18:00
Live on BT Sport 1

"Leeds won 5-2 against Newcastle in December in the reverse Premier League meeting, last completing a league double over the Magpies in the 1975-76 campaign under Jimmy Armfield, which was also the last time they won back-to-back league games against the Magpies."

The visitors are not in great form, but Newcastle are playing really poorly. Back Leeds to win at 2.01/1.

Saints beat Arsenal at weekend

Southampton 3.39/4 v Arsenal 2.47/5; The Draw 3.55/2
Tuesday 26 January, 20:15
Live on BT Sport 1

"All seven of Southampton's wins against Arsenal in the Premier League have been at home, with only Fulham vs Everton (9) winning more games against an opponent with all wins coming at home in the Premier League."

Southampton beat Arsenal 1-0 at home in the FA Cup over the weekend. Though Arsenal will field a stronger team in this match, the Saints are a big price and can be backed at 1.75/7 to avoid defeat in the Double Chance market.

Another clean sheet for City

West Brom 17.5 v Manchester City 1.222/9; The Draw 8.07/1
Tuesday 26 January, 20:15
Live on BT Sport 2

"Since losing 2-5 against Leicester in their second game of the season, Manchester City have conceded just seven goals in 16 Premier League games, keeping 10 clean sheets in the process."

Manchester City are available at 1.910/11 to win to nil.

Burnley keep it tight at home

Burnley 3.9 v Aston Villa 2.111/10; The Draw 3.711/4
Wednesday 27 January, 18:00
Live on BT Sport 2

"Turf Moor has seen fewer goals scored than any other Premier League ground this season, with just 13 goals being scored in Burnley's eight home league games this season (F5 A8)."

Considering this statistic, under 2.5 goals looks too big at 1.9210/11.

Chelsea under new leadership

Chelsea 1.635/8 v Wolves 6.05/1; The Draw 4.47/2
Wednesday 27 January, 18:00
Live on BT Sport 1

"Wolves haven't kept a clean sheet in any of their last 12 Premier League games, the longest current run in the competition. Wolves have conceded at least twice in each of their last three league games, last having a longer such run in the top-flight between February and April 2012 (nine games)."

With Chelsea likely to be going into this game with a new manager, we could see an energetic performance from the hosts and over 2.5 goals is 1.9620/21.

Brighton leading the way when it comes to goals

Brighton 2.166/5 v Fulham 3.9; The Draw 3.55/2
Wednesday 27 January, 19:30
Live on BT Sport 3

"Both teams have scored in 12 of Brighton's Premier League matches so far this season - no side has had more games with both teams finding the net so far this term."

Both teams to score has been a very reliable bet in Brighton's games and can be backed at 1.9420/21.

Leicester reliable on the road

Everton 2.9215/8 v Leicester 2.6813/8; The Draw 3.55/2
Wednesday 27 January, 20:15
Live on BT Sport 2

"Leicester manager Brendan Rodgers has won 52.2% of his Premier League matches as Foxes boss (P67 W35 D12 L20), the best ratio of any permanent Foxes manager in their top-flight history."

The Foxes are in fine form, especially away from home and are 1.8810/11 in the Draw No Bet market.

Blades are blunt

Manchester United 1.292/7 v Sheffield United [13.5; The Draw
Wednesday 27 January, 20:15
Live on BT Sport 1

"After a six-game winless run at Old Trafford (D3 L3), Manchester United have won four of their last five home league games (D1), keeping three clean sheets in this run."

With Sheffield United struggling to score goals, Manchester United look a good bet at 2.01/1 to win to nil.

Liverpool struggling on the road

Tottenham 3.412/5 v Liverpool 2.35/4; The Draw 3.711/4
Thursday 28 January, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 1

"Liverpool have picked up just one win in their last eight away Premier League games (D5 L2)."

Spurs seem the value here and can be backed cautiously at 2.3411/8 in the Draw No Bet market.

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Dan Fitch 2020/21 Season P/L

Staked: 442.00 pts
Returned: 451.85 pts
P/L: +9.85 pts

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