The weakest home team takes on the weakest away team in the Bundesliga on Wednesday, and Paul Robinson believes that Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt will share the points...
The fewer goals there are, the more likely a draw is, and you could argue that it wouldn’t be the worst result in the world for either team.
Werder Bremen v Eintracht Frankfurt
Wednesday 3 June, 19:30
Live on BT Sport
Werder on a roll
Werder Bremen have shown some real fight since the Bundesliga returned, and it could be that playing behind closed doors has suited them. After losing 1-4 to Leverkusen, they have since gone on to take seven points from a possible nine, all without conceding a goal.
The River Islanders are still second from bottom, but they have pulled well clear of Paderborn, and they now have both Fortuna Dusseldorf and Mainz 05 in their sights. If they win this game in hand, they will overtake the former, and draw level with the latter.
Florian Kohfeldt's side have a favourable fixture list to come too, as Bayern are the only top five team they have left to face, and they have matches against Paderborn and Mainz. Their destiny is now in their own hands.
Can Eintracht Frankfurt build on their Wolfsburg win?
The Eagles won't be the most popular team at present, as I am pretty confident that they ruined a few Bundesliga Acca's on Saturday - mine included - when they beat Wolfsburg.
The hosts dominated the match on the stats, but for me, Frankfurt looked the likelier to score when they had the ball in the opposition third.
The 1-2 victory was their first win since a DFB Pokal success at the beginning of March, which coincidentally, came against their opponents here. It was their first Bundesliga win since February 7th.
Adi Hütter's men have been very streaky this season, which I am sure was partly down to their participation in the Europa League - a competition which they are still technically a part of. They are 12th in the Bundesliga now, but with only five points between them and the relegation play-off place, they still have some work left to do.
Spoils to be shared
The Match-Odds market is very tight on the Betfair Exchange, with the visitors the marginal favourites at [2.68]. A home win is [2.88], with the draw the outsider at around the [3.55] mark.
Eintracht Frankfurt have conceded plenty of goals since their return, but they were definitely more resolute at the weekend, and they had faced some tough opponents.
Werder Bremen have kept three clean sheets in a row - which is some feat in this league - but two of those came against Freiburg and Schalke, with the pair of them being pretty woeful since the return.
There is the shocking home form of Bremen to consider too. They have played 13 times on this ground this term, and won just once - losing nine times. Even behind closed doors they have failed to win here - losing 1-4 to Leverkusen and drawing 0-0 with M'Gladbach.
Frankfurt's away record is nothing to write home about either though, as the victory at the Volkswagen Arena was only their third win on the road this season - and they lost 10 of the other 11.
Assuming both defences remain in the form that they were in at the weekend, I quite like the draw in this one. The fewer goals there are, the more likely a draw is, and you could argue that it wouldn't be the worst result in the world for either team.
Take the Under when it comes to goals
As I have alluded to above, I quite like Under 2.5 Goals in this game, and while it is plenty short enough at [2.2] (remember, this is the Bundesliga), I still think it represents a bit of value.
The hosts have actually had three fixtures in a row to go Under 1.5, and the visitors had their lowest scoring match since the league returned, on Saturday.
It is also worth mentioning that the last meeting between the pair was the German Cup tie, and that ended with just two goals being scored.
For those who disagree, Over 2.5 Goals is available to back at [1.82] on the Betfair Exchange.
Key Opta Stat
This match-up sees the weakest home team face off against the weakest away team in the Bundesliga this season. Werder Bremen have picked up just six points at home, compared to the 10 Eintracht Frankfurt have taken on the road.
2019/20 P/L (1pt each bet)
Back The Draw @ [3.55]
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ [2.2]