Bundesliga Tips: Back Kane to star in big Bayern win

• Bayern beat Werder 4-0 in reverse

• Bochum can test depleted Stuttgart

• Rock-bottom Darmstadt rightful outsiders in derby

Champions can stay on title track

Bayern Munich v Werder Bremen
Sunday 21 January, 14:30
Live on Sky Sports and Betfair Live Video

If it hadn't been for Bayer Leverkusen's incredible form in the first half of the season, Bayern Munich would be top of the table. While the record champions haven't consistently been at their best, they have still racked up 52 goals in 16 league appearances, and they have lost just once in the top flight.

If Thomas Tuchel does somehow get Bayern to look a bit more bulletproof, they'll not only win the league, but they'll take a decent swing at lifting the Champions League trophy too. Harry Kane is the centre-piece, having already fired in 22 goals in 16 league appearances (he has a game to break Robert Lewandowski's record for goals in the first half of a Bundesliga campaign). The England captain has been outstanding since arriving from Spurs.

However, even when Bayern are dominating possession and dictating the flow of the game, there's always a feeling they are vulnerable on the counter. Last weekend's clash with Hoffenheim is a great example. TSG hung in there for the first hour, and at 1-0 down they carved out three excellent chances, none of which they took. Bayern eventually reasserted themselves and won 3-0.

While I think that kind of tactical generosity could hurt Bayern in the long term, it shouldn't be an issue this weekend against a really limited Werder Bremen. The northern side have won just four of their 17 games, they have leaked 31 goals already, and they haven't won an away game in the top division since April.

Werder lost the reverse fixture 4-0 as Kane scored on his Bundesliga debut, and our friends at Opta tell us that Werder have lost 28 of their last 32 competitive matches against Bayern, and they haven't beaten the Bavarians since September 2008.

I'll use the Sportsbook's Bet Builder to back Bayern -2 on the Handicap and Kane to score at 1.981/1.

Stuttgart to keep sliding

Bochum v Stuttgart
Saturday 20 January, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video

Last weekend I predicted that Stuttgart would slip up at Borussia Mönchengladbach, and the southern giants duly lost 3-1. This time around they are priced just above evens to win at Bochum, and I feel like that price is too short, despite the fact Stuttgart won the reverse fixture 5-0.

Stuttgart are still without star striker Serhou Guirassy, who is away at AFCON with Guinea. Silas is also at that tournament, while the Asian Cup is being attended by key defender Hiroki Ito and depth forward Woo-Yong Jeong. VfB still have good players to fall back upon, but they made an awful start at Gladbach, and this trip to Bochum will be tougher than the market suggests.

Bochum have claimed 11 of their 17 points at home, and stretching back into last season they have lost just one of their last 11 top-flight matches at the Ruhrstadion. This term they have held Borussia Dortmund to a draw, have beaten Wolfsburg and Union Berlin, and they were the last team to defeat Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga (a 3-0 win in Bochum on the final day of last season).

Stuttgart have lost three of their last four away games in the league, and I'm happy to back Bochum +0.5 on the Asian Handicap here at 1.9620/21. We only need Thomas Letsch's team to avoid defeat, and we'll have a full pay-out at close to evens.

Eagles can soar above derby distractions

Darmstadt v Eintracht Frankfurt
Saturday 20 January, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video

It's fair to say that this Hessen showdown between Darmstadt and neighbours Eintracht Frankfurt is the latest edition of a keenly felt rivalry. Flags have been burned in stadiums, hundreds of fans have clashed in both pre-arranged and impromptu battles, and there was once a brutal and widely criticised cartoon depicting a burly Eintracht fan taking an axe to a rather less physically imposing Darmstadt supporter.

The Lilies will hope that this kind of passion (if you can call it that) can be used in a positive way to kickstart their season. SVD are bottom of the table, and I have said since before the season started, they don't really have the personnel to compete at this level. Thorsten Lieberknecht's side have claimed just three points from their last ten Bundesliga matches, they have the joint-worst home record in the league, and they have the worst defensive record in the division.

Eintracht Frankfurt are unbeaten in their last three meetings with Darmstadt, and they won the reverse fixture 1-0. Last weekend, the Eagles produced one of the best away displays I've seen this season, as they scored an early goal at RB Leipzig and then kept a very good side at arms' length to secure a 1-0 win. Mario Götze's surprising rebirth as a holding midfielder took another intriguing step forward, while centre-backs Tuta, Willian Pacho and Robin Koch all excelled.

Frankfurt have now won three of their last six on the road in the league, and I'll back them to claim maximum points here by backing them at evens in the Match Odds market.

Now read Kev's Bet of the Day column here!