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Inconsistent Dortmund must show their potential
Borussia Dortmund v Bayern Munich
Saturday 30 November, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports
Both Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich started the campaign with new coaches at the helm, but while Vincent Kompany has delivered an unbeaten start in the pursuit of the Bundesliga title, Nuri Sahin has struggled to find the consistency required at BvB.
Dortmund have won every single home game they have played in all competitions, and yet on the road they are yet to win a single Bundesliga match. They have lost at Union Berlin, Augsburg and Mainz, and they were shredded in a 5-1 reverse at Stuttgart. In the DFB Pokal, a dismal defeat at Wolfsburg cranked up the pressure on a coach who used to regularly play for Dortmund with distinction.
It is worth pointing out how often Dortmund have been able to raise their game in front of their own fans. They crushed Celtic 7-1 in the Champions League, they have beaten RB Leipzig and Eintracht Frankfurt (both of whom are above Die Schwarzgelben in the standings) and last time out they hammered a decent Freiburg team 4-0.
Bayern are six points clear at the top of the Bundesliga, and have kept seven straight clean sheets in all competitions. They secured a nervy but extremely important 1-0 win over PSG on Tuesday in the Champions League, but against quality opposition there are still question marks about Bayern's high defensive line and their all-in style of play. They lost at Aston Villa and Barcelona in the Champions League and were held to a thrilling 3-3 draw at Eintracht Frankfurt.
This will be a clash of elite goalscorers. Harry Kane has recently become the fastest player ever to reach 50 Bundesliga goals, reaching the mark in just 43 games. The previous record-holder was Erling Haaland, who did it in 50. He'll be up against Dortmund's Serhou Guirassy, who netted 30 goals in all competitions for Stuttgart last term, and already has 10 for his new club this time around.
I have no problem with Bayern being favourites here, but 1.768/11 is too short. Dortmund absolutely have the pace to threaten that high defensive line, and you have to respect the fact they have won every single home game they have played under Sahin. It's not a game that Bayern need to win (they are already nine points clear of the champions Bayer Leverkusen), and I'll lay them here at 1.768/11.
Rock-solid hosts can upset the champions
Union Berlin v Bayer Leverkusen
Saturday 30 November, 14:30
It's been a curious season for Union Berlin. They are still in single figures when it comes to both goals scored and goals conceded, but there's no doubt they are making progress under new coach Bo Svensson. The Danish tactician saved his beloved Mainz from relegation before delivering back-to-back top-half finishes, and he knows how to build a team. Union are still unbeaten at home, and they have beaten Borussia Dortmund in Köpenick and they have held good sides like Eintracht Frankfurt and Freiburg to draws.
It helps that there has been consistency of selection in the back line, with Diogo Leite, Kevin Vogt, Danilho Doekhi and goalkeeper Fredrik Ronnow an excellent unit. Leite is likely to miss this game with injury, but young Austrian international defender Leopold Querfeld has shown himself a solid and reliable alternative.
Bayer Leverkusen find themselves nine points off top spot, and we shouldn't get too excited about them scoring ten goals in their last two competitive games. They had to come back from being 2-0 down at home against out-of-form Heidenheim, and then they swept aside a Salzburg team that has been dreadful this term under new boss Pep Lijnders.
Given Leverkusen's current form (they have only won five of their 11 league matches), I can't have them being odds-on to win here. Union are a different proposition to last season, they are getting great support on home soil, and Svensson will know exactly how to set them up. He thrived in games like this at Mainz, as he beat Bayern in multiple occasions.
I'll lay Bayer at 1.84/5.
Ailing Bochum set to slip again
Augsburg v Bochum
Saturday 30 November, 14:30
Augsburg were more competitive at Bayern Munich last weekend than the stats and the 3-0 scoreline suggest, and it was only the concession of two needless spot-kicks that really broke that game open. Previously out-of-form goalkeeper Nediljko Labrovic produced a morale-boosting performance, and coach Jess Thorup can take some positives.
At home, Augsburg have collected 11 points, and they have only lost once. French forward Alexis Claude-Maurice has caught the eye, scoring a dazzling double to beat Borussia Dortmund and netting a winner against Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Bochum are rock-bottom, despite the recent arrival of veteran coach Dieter Hecking. The 60-year-old has overseen a draw against Bayer Leverkusen and a defeat at Stuttgart, and the Ruhr club have claimed just two points from 11 matches, a truly dreadful start.
On the road, Bochum have lost 14 of their last 16 in the Bundesliga, and I'll happily back a superior Augsburg side to win here at 1.84/5.